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Destinations of Victorian School-Leavers: Key Findings

Destinations of Victorian School-Leavers: Key Findings. Trish Corrie (DEECD) & Phillip McKenzie (ACER). CEET Seminar, Monash City Conference Centre, 26 November 2008. Structure of the seminar. Overview of On Track (TC) Key trends 2003-2008 and main results 2008 (PM)

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Destinations of Victorian School-Leavers: Key Findings

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  1. Destinations of Victorian School-Leavers: Key Findings Trish Corrie (DEECD) & Phillip McKenzie (ACER) CEET Seminar, Monash City Conference Centre, 26 November 2008

  2. Structure of the seminar Overview of On Track (TC) Key trends 2003-2008 and main results 2008 (PM) Longitudinal cohort from 2004 (TC) Policy implications (PM) 2

  3. On Track is…. An annual Victorian post school destination survey for Year 12 completers and early leavers Incoming Bracks Government initiative to provide destination information to schools, parents and students First survey 2003 3

  4. On Track is…. An annual Victorian post school destination survey for Year 12 completers and early leavers Incoming Bracks Government initiative to provide destination information to schools, parents and students First survey 2003 4

  5. On Track Objectives In addition to the information commitment Provide data on trends of post school destinations over time Provide evidence of relationships between curriculum, location, gender, achievement and SES, and destinations 5

  6. On Track objectives … Provide evidence of disparities in transition outcomes and the characteristics of the cohorts involved Conduct longitudinal studies to improve understanding of the factors that influence transitions prior to the post compulsory years and post school 6

  7. Main features In scope? Consent process Data aids Government schools to set transition targets for specific cohorts and measure progress towards targets And DEECD corporate performance for Year 12 and early leaver transitions to education, training or full time employment is measured using On Track data 7

  8. Methodology • Annual Year 12 and early leaver sample subject to bias check • Telephone surveys conducted in April and May each year preceded by Victoria wide FM radio campaign to remind consenting students to participate when called. Parents as proxies may give current destination only • Questionnaire development involves DEECD policy units each year • Questionnaire pilot tested and ongoing briefings while in the field 8

  9. Outputs Annually. Published data table. Regional briefings on findings throughout Victoria Ongoing internal analysis for policy units Ongoing analysis for external stakeholders– Universities ,TAFE, other providers, LLENs, Local Government, Plt. Committees 9

  10. Reports School reports for all schools Specific cohort data for all schools TAFE reports LLEN reports Final State Report VETiS report Longitudinal report for the year 10

  11. Year 12 Completers

  12. Apparent retention rate, FT students,from Year 7/8 to Year 12 20022007 Victoria 80.9% 80.1% Australia 75.1% 74.3% Source: ABS, Schools Australia 12

  13. 100% 5.5 6.0 6.6 8.0 8.9 11.0 3.8 3.8 3.3 90% 2.9 2.9 20.9 14.3 13.1 13.0 13.7 80% 14.4 6.4 10.0 9.2 5.7 8.1 70% 9.8 60% Deferrals 19.0 26.1 20.4 Looking for work 23.4 26.3 18.0 Employed 50% Apprentice/Trainee TAFE/VET University 40% 30% 47.4 46.1 43.9 43.4 43.1 41.6 20% 10% 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year 12 Destinations, 2003-08, Victoria

  14. 100% 5.7 5.9 7.3 7.5 8.3 9.8 5.3 5.2 4.5 90% 3.9 4.0 16.8 24.9 80% 18.3 16.7 17.4 18.5 70% 7.9 11.8 10.9 9.8 6.9 11.6 60% Deferrals Looking for work Employed 50% 21.7 22.8 29.0 Apprentice/Trainee 25.9 28.5 20.5 TAFE/VET University 40% 30% 20% 38.9 37.6 35.6 34.4 33.8 32.4 10% 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year 12 Destinations 2003-08, Government Schools

  15. Year 12 Destinations, % Point Change, Vic

  16. Destinations of Year 12 completers, by gender (State)

  17. Destinations of Year 12 completers, by SES quartile (State)

  18. Destinations of Year 12 completers, by GAT quartile (State)

  19. Year 12 completer transitions by SFO funding, by region

  20. Early Leavers

  21. Destinations of Year 12 completers and early leavers (State)

  22. Destinations of early leavers, by gender (State)

  23. Destinations of early leavers,by year level (State)

  24. Apprenticeships entered by completers and early leavers (State)

  25. Occupations of early leaversnot studying

  26. I would have stayed at school if ...(multiple responses allowed)

  27. 2004 longitudinal group 27

  28. Final findings for the 2004 longitudinal group, 4 years on Four categories of school leavers involved with the VET sector: Apprentices in 2005 Trainees in 2005 VET Certificate I, II or III in 2005 VCAL completers (some included above) 28

  29. Overall findings • 57.8% were still in study or training in 2008 • Continuation rates higher for males • VET is a pathway to higher education • VCAL graduates are faring well compared to early leavers • Benefits of school completion persist in the labour market • Apprentices are most strongly attached to the labour market • Early school leavers are more likely to face difficulties in obtaining secure work and rely on VET to improve their skills and their employment prospects 29

  30. Final findings for the 2004 longitudinal group, 4 years on Apprentices 62% were continuing an apprenticeship 22% completed an apprenticeship 17% discontinued Rates: Metropolitan 20%; non-metro 12% Reasons: ‘Didn’t like it’, ‘circumstances changed’, ‘personal differences with employer’ or ‘business failed’ 30

  31. Final findings for the 2004 longitudinal group Trainees 72% completed; 7% continuing 21% discontinued Destinations in 2008 18% university; 6% Cert IV+ VET 10% apprenticeships; 5% other traineeships 44% full-time work; 12% part-time work 2% looking for work; 3% NILF 31

  32. Final findings for the 2004 longitudinal group, 4 years on VET Certificate I, II or III 75% completed 54% of males into apprenticeships 39% of females in full-time work 27% of females in further study 32

  33. Final findings for the 2004 longitudinal group, 4 years on VCAL completers 32% in apprenticeships in 2008 Better outcomes than early leavers More in university or Certificate IV+ Fewer unemployed or NILF 33

  34. Policy implications

  35. Policy implications Strengthening the preventative role of schools Improving the attractiveness of TAFE/VET for school-leavers Supporting those ‘at risk’ in school-to-work transition 35

  36. On Track queries and publication details Please direct questions or comment following today’s presentation to: Dr Trish Corrie On Track Project Manager t: 03.9637.2802 e: corrie.trish.k@edumail.vic.gov.au All On Track publications are available at: http://www.education.vic.gov.au/ontrack/

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