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LLOYD GEORGE MANAGEMENT The East-West Pendulum Revisited The Outlook for Asian and Emerging Markets Robert Lloyd George. January 2005. The East-West Pendulum. The East-West Pendulum Updated. CHINA 2005 vs CHINA 1990 GNP/Trade/Per Capita Income/Stock Market CHINA’s Impact on the World

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LLOYD GEORGE MANAGEMENTThe East-West Pendulum RevisitedThe Outlook for Asian and Emerging MarketsRobert Lloyd George

January 2005

the east west pendulum updated
The East-West Pendulum Updated
  • CHINA 2005 vs CHINA 1990

GNP/Trade/Per Capita Income/Stock Market

  • CHINA’s Impact on the World

Manufacturing, Exports, Deflation/Inflation, Commodities

  • CHINA Investment opportunities and Risks
indirect investment in china
Indirect Investment in China
  • Australian mining shares
  • Brazil iron ore/ Chilean copper
  • Hong Kong Real Estate
  • Japanese Machine Tools
  • Travel and Tourism (HK, Thailand, Malaysia)
china s impact on the world like japan 1980s 2005 2010
CHINA’s Impact on the World (like JAPAN 1980s) 2005-2010
  • Deflation or Inflation?
  • Chinese (like Japanese), buying Art treasures and property
  • CNOOC’s bid for UNOCAL and - LENOVO/IBM important pointers for the future
investment outlook 2005
Investment Outlook 2005
  • US dollar recovery
  • Liquidity Squeeze
  • Steady growth in Asian economies
  • The key is the Asian Consumer (China, India)
reits a new asian asset class
REITS - a new Asian Asset Class
  • US: and Australian / examples in past 20 years -
  • Japan, Singapore
  • Hong Kong
  • Cashflow - High Dividend Yield
  • Asian preference for property ownership
lloyd george management
Lloyd George Management
  • US$5.5 Billion Assets Under Management
  • Largest Independent Investment “Boutique” in Asia
  • Founded 1992 - our vision is that CHINA and INDIA are 2 key Emerging Markets
  • Offices in Hong Kong, Singapore, Bombay and London
  • 60 staff (20 investment professionals) worldwide
investment philosophy
Investment Philosophy
  • Conservative, long term, stock-picking
  • Small cap and Mid cap (Find the “Microsoft of China 2015”)
  • High ROE, strong balance sheet and committed management with same interests as shareholders
  • Concentrated Asian Portfolio of 40 stocks - make “bets outside the benchmark”
natural resources key investment theme
Natural Resources - Key Investment Theme
  • “BRIC” - Brazil / Russia / India / China
  • Food, oil and minerals
  • Risks are legal, political and corporate governance
  • Watch the Middle East - where will the oil price be in 2010?
three geopolitical blocs
Three Geopolitical Blocs
  • USA, EU, and Asia
  • US-DEBT, THE DOLLAR, and “EMPIRE”
  • EU-EXPANDS FROM 15 To 33 nations (including TURKEY)
  • ASIA-CHINA/ASEAN FREE TRADE accord, and possible NEW ASIAN CURRENCY BLOC - China is the Regional Leader
conclusion
Conclusion
  • The East West Pendulum has bounced back
  • Hong Kong still the place to be
  • LGM a reliable partner for Asian investment
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