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G. Gastineau, J. Garcia-Serrano, C. Frankignoul

CT1/CT3 Meeting 22-23 April 2013 Hamburg Predictability associated with the Atlantic ocean SST variability. G. Gastineau, J. Garcia-Serrano, C. Frankignoul. Introduction. Atlantic ocean SST variability : AMO + North Atlantic Horseshoe

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G. Gastineau, J. Garcia-Serrano, C. Frankignoul

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  1. CT1/CT3 Meeting 22-23 April 2013 HamburgPredictability associated with the Atlantic ocean SST variability G. Gastineau, J. Garcia-Serrano, C. Frankignoul

  2. Introduction • Atlantic ocean SST variability : AMO + North Atlantic Horseshoe • Are both pattern related? What are their influence on the European/American climate?

  3. Data and methods • Data : • Atmosphere : 20CR-NOAA reanalysis (56 members) • SST : HadISST • Global warming influence removed : • SST : Regression over the global mean SST time series removed • Atmosphere : detrend

  4. Global SST warming

  5. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation AMO = low pass (10-yr) filtered North Atlantic SST AMO-proj = SST filtered with a ¼ ½ ¼ filtered projected onto AMO spatial pattern

  6. Climatic impact of AMO

  7. Maximum covariance analysis

  8. North Atlantic Horseshoe SC R Such mode is found in all ensemble members (at least for OND) PDF for NAH significance in OND

  9. Climate impact of NAH

  10. Links horseshoe - AMO AMO-proj AMO-std

  11. Non-stationarity Moving correlation between NAH and AMO using 20-yr window : Moving correlation between NAH and NAO in NDJ using 20-yr window :

  12. Ongoing work • Remove remote influence of Indo-Pacific variability • Explain the non-stationary in the AMO-NAH links • Compare the relative influence of SST to that of snow cover and sea ice cover. • Focus also on the summer impacts of AMO

  13. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union 7th Framework Programme (FP7 2007-2013), under grant agreement n.308299 NACLIM www.naclim.eu

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