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Robert Lempert Senior Scientist RAND. Water Management and Climate Change in the US-Mexico Border Region. September 27, 2008. Climate Change Poses Significant Challenge for Resource Planning the US-Mexico Border Region. “Stationarity is dead”

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Water Management and Climate Change in the US-Mexico Border Region

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Robert lempert senior scientist rand

Robert Lempert

Senior Scientist

RAND

Water Management and Climate Change in the US-Mexico Border Region

September 27, 2008


Climate change poses significant challenge for resource planning the us mexico border region

Climate Change Poses Significant Challenge for Resource Planning the US-Mexico Border Region

“Stationarity is dead”

Many organizations already include climate (often implicitly) in their decisions

Amidst all the uncertainty one thing we do know for sure -- tomorrow’s climate will not be like the past’s

Changes in West are likely to include:

Increased temperatures

Changes in precipitation patterns

More intense storms

Declining snow pack and summertime river flows

Without proper planning:

Supply expectations may not be met

Demand may grow faster than can be accommodated

Infrastructure may fail


Planners in s california for instance face a range of possible future climate conditions

Planners in S. California, for Instance, Face aRange of Possible Future Climate Conditions

No change

Hotter

Winter-time precipitation change (2000 - 2030)‏

Much drier

Wetter

Likely range

-19%

+8%

0

Summer-time temperature change

(2000- 2030)‏

Likelyrange

+.1C

0

+2.1C

Results based on statistical summary of 21 of the world’s best Global Climate Models

Water managers also face many similar, if not more, disruptive uncertainties


Our work with california water agencies suggests lessons for us mexico border region

Our Work With California Water Agencies Suggests Lessons for US-Mexico Border Region

Resource managers can no longer assume future climate will be like the past

Despite deep uncertainty, sufficient information exists to support prudent action today

Effective response options are available

Legislatures may have to help ensure:

Access to appropriate data and information

Funding for demonstration projects and new infrastructure

Appropriate incentives and perhaps some regulatory changes


Conducted vulnerability and options analysis for inland empire utilities agency ieua

Conducted Vulnerability and Options Analysis for Inland Empire Utilities Agency (IEUA)‏

IEUA currently serves 800,000 people

May add 300,000 by 2025

Water presents a significant challenge


Conducted vulnerability and options analysis for inland empire utilities agency ieua1

Conducted Vulnerability and Options Analysis for Inland Empire Utilities Agency (IEUA)‏

IEUA currently serves 800,000 people

May add 300,000 by 2025

Water presents a significant challenge

  • Current water sources include:

    • Groundwater 56%

    • Imports32%

    • Recycled1%

    • Surface8%

    • Desalter2%


Conducted vulnerability and options analysis for inland empire utilities agency ieua2

Conducted Vulnerability and Options Analysis for Inland Empire Utilities Agency (IEUA)‏

IEUA currently serves 800,000 people

May add 300,000 by 2025

Water presents a significant challenge

  • Current water sources include:

    • Groundwater 56%

    • Imports32%

    • Recycled1%

    • Surface8%

    • Desalter2%

Focus of IEUA’s 20 year plan


Our research focused on two key questions

Our Research Focused on Two Key Questions

Are IEUA’s plans vulnerable to assumptions about uncertain future conditions, including climate change?

Which actions should IEUA do now and which can they defer to later to address the threat of climate change?


We identified three types of assumptions that could impact the performance of ieua plans

We Identified Three Types of Assumptions That Could Impact the Performance of IEUA Plans

Natural Processes

  • Future temperatures

  • Future precipitation

  • Changes in groundwater processes

Performance of Management Strategies

  • Development of aggressive waste-water recycling program

  • Implementation of groundwater replenishment

Costs of Future Supplies and Management Activities

  • Imported supplies

  • Water use efficiency


We identified three types of assumptions that could impact the performance of ieua plans1

We Identified Three Types of Assumptions That Could Impact the Performance of IEUA Plans

Natural Processes

  • Future temperatures

  • Future precipitation

  • Changes in groundwater processes

Performance of Management Strategies

  • Development of aggressive waste-water recycling program

  • Implementation of groundwater replenishment

Costs of Future Supplies and Management Activities

  • Imported supplies

  • Water use efficiency


We identified three types of assumptions that could impact the performance of ieua plans2

We Identified Three Types of Assumptions That Could Impact the Performance of IEUA Plans

Natural Processes

  • Future temperatures

  • Future precipitation

  • Changes in groundwater processes

Performance of Management Strategies

  • Development of aggressive waste-water recycling program

  • Implementation of groundwater replenishment

Costs of Future Supplies and Management Activities

  • Imported supplies

  • Water use efficiency


Ieua faces a wide range of possible future climate conditions

IEUA Faces a Wide Range of Possible Future Climate Conditions

Summer-time temperature change

(2000- 2030)‏

No change

Hotter

Likelyrange

+.1C

0

+2.1C

Winter-time precipitation change (2000 - 2030)‏

Much drier

Wetter

Likely range

-19%

+8%

0


Our simulation model assessed performance of ieua plans in different future states of world

Our Simulation Model Assessed Performance of IEUA Plans in Different Future States of World

IEUA Plans

System data & climate forecasts

Scenario A

Plan generates surpluses in benign future climate

Scenario B

Plan suffers shortages in adverse future climate

400

400

Shortage

Dry-year yield

350

350

Surplus

Surplus

300

300

Imports

Imports

250

250

Annual supply (taf)‏

Annual supply (taf)‏

200

200

Local Supplies

Local Supplies

150

150

Groundwater

Groundwater

100

100

50

50

Recycled

Recycled

0

0

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Year

Year

Temp: +0.7oC Precip: +3%

Temp: +1.6oC Precip: -10%

Performance of plans

Model


Ieua s ability to implement its plan and the agency s future costs are also uncertain

IEUA’s Ability to Implement Its Plan and The Agency’s Future Costs are Also Uncertain

  • Estimates of agency’s likelihood of achieving its recycling and ground water goals

  • Future costs of alternative sources of supply


Simulation suggests that climate change exacerbates other risks to ieua s plan

Simulation Suggests that Climate Change Exacerbates Other Risks to IEUA’s Plan

In 656 cases IEUA’s plan has low cost

Ran simulation 1,000 times for many different combinations of uncertain factors

In 344 cases IEUA’s plan has high cost

What factors explain these high cost cases?

Key Vulnerabilities to IEUA Plan

Miss recycling goal

Adverse future climate

Any reduction in groundwater infiltration

Factors considered

Performance towards recycling goal

Performance towards replenishment goal

Future climate

Amount of new conservation

Amount of groundwater infiltration

Effect of climate on imports


Our research focused on two key questions1

Our Research Focused on Two Key Questions

Are IEUA’s plans vulnerable to assumptions about uncertain future conditions, including climate change?

Which actions should IEUA do now and which can they defer to later to address the threat of climate change?


Response options may help ieua address these vulnerabilities

Response Options May Help IEUA Address These Vulnerabilities

  • Efficiency reduces demand but imposes costs on customers and requires customer participation

  • Recycled water use is a drought-proof supply but requires significant public support

  • Improved groundwater management increases resilience to shortages but requires significant cooperation and faces unknown costs

Each Option Has Benefits and Costs


Should ieua act now or later to reduce potential climate vulnerabilities

Should IEUA Act Now or Later to Reduce Potential Climate Vulnerabilities?

In 2015, 2020, 2025, ….

Monitor, and take additional action if supplies drop too low

NO

Implement additional efficiency, recycling, and replenishment

YES

Act now to augment

2005 Plan?

In 2015, 2020, 2025, ….

Monitor, and take additional action if supplies drop too low


We evaluated nine strategies under 200 scenarios reflecting key uncertainties

We Evaluated Nine Strategies Under200 Scenarios Reflecting Key Uncertainties

Current Plan Forever

UWMP + DYY and recycling

UWMP + replenishment

UWMP with updates

UWMP + DYY and recycling with updates

UWMP + replenishment with updates

UWMP + efficiency

UWMP + efficiency with updates

Static options

Update options

UWMP + all enhancements

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Number of Scenarios (PV Costs > $3.75 billion)‏


Just allowing the current uwmp to update reduces vulnerability substantially

Just Allowing the Current UWMP to UpdateReduces Vulnerability Substantially

Current Plan Forever

UWMP + DYY and recycling

From 120

Down to 30

UWMP + replenishment

UWMP with updates

  • Still vulnerable to:

  • Precipitation declines

  • Declines in imports

  • Costs of imports

UWMP + DYY and recycling with updates

UWMP + replenishment with updates

UWMP + efficiency

UWMP + efficiency with updates

Static options

Update options

UWMP + all enhancements

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Number of Scenarios (PV Costs > $3.75 billion)‏


Implementing efficiency and other options now reduces future vulnerabilities even more

Implementing Efficiency and Other Options NowReduces Future Vulnerabilities Even More

UWMP with updates

UWMP + DYY and recycling with updates

UWMP + replenishment with updates

Implementation

becomes

more

challenging

UWMP + efficiency

Static options

UWMP + efficiency with updates

Update options

UWMP + all enhancements

0

10

20

30

40

Number of Scenarios

(PV Costs > $3.75 billion)‏


Implementing efficiency and other options now reduces future vulnerabilities even more1

Implementing Efficiency and Other Options NowReduces Future Vulnerabilities Even More

UWMP with updates

UWMP + DYY and recycling with updates

UWMP + replenishment with updates

Implementation

becomes

more

challenging

UWMP + efficiency

Static options

UWMP + efficiency with updates

Update options

UWMP + all enhancements

0

10

20

30

40

Number of Scenarios

(PV Costs > $3.75 billion)‏

IEUA should make more near-term efficiency investments;

monitor performance and adapt as needed down the road


Us mexico border region can and must begin adapting to climate change

US-Mexico Border Region Can and Must Begin Adapting to Climate Change

Resource managers can no longer assume future climate will be like the past

Impacts of climate change may create significant vulnerabilities in agencies’ operations and plans

Despite deep uncertainty, sufficient information exists to support prudent action

New planning methods may prove necessary

Key is identifying near-term actions that are robust over a wide range of plausible futures

Effective response options are available

Inland Empire Utilities Agency should increase investment in near-term conservation, monitor carefully, and prepare to take further actions

Other agencies may require additional near-term responses


Analysis suggests three such driving forces

Analysis Suggests Three Such Driving Forces

Conducted statistical, cluster-finding analysis over all the model runs to identify the factors most strongly associated with shortages in 20 Year Plan

Meet recycling goal

Meet replenishment goal

Future climate

New conservation

Reduced groundwater infiltration

Climate on imports

Miss

Meet

Exceed

Miss

Meet

Exceed

Drier

Wetter

-5%

+20%

-20%

0%

Weak

Strong

Explains 127 (of 180) low surplus cases


Simulation model evaluated ieua s current plan under many different scenarios

Simulation Model Evaluated IEUA’s Current Plan Under Many Different Scenarios

IEUA Water

Management

Options

Option

Performance

Simulation

Model

Uncertainties


Scatter plots summarize supply and shortage costs for each scenario for current plan

Scatter Plots Summarize Supply and Shortage Costs for Each Scenario for Current Plan

Current Plan Forever

4.0

PV supply cost

($ billions)‏

3.5

3.0

2.5

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

0

PV shortage cost ($ billions)‏


Scatter plots summarize supply and shortage costs for each scenario for current plan1

Scatter Plots Summarize Supply and Shortage Costs for Each Scenario for Current Plan

Modest warming and minimal precipitation decrease

$3.3 billion in supply cost

$0 in shortage cost

Scenario B

  • Significant warming and precipitation decrease

  • $3.4 billion in supply cost

  • $1.9 billion in shortage cost

Current Plan Forever

4.0

PV supply cost

($ billions)‏

3.5

Scenario A

3.0

2.5

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

0

PV shortage cost ($ billions)‏


Scatter plots summarize supply and shortage costs for each scenario for current plan2

Scatter Plots Summarize Supply and Shortage Costs for Each Scenario for Current Plan

Current Plan Forever

4.0

PV supply cost

($ billions)‏

3.5

3.0

(200 Scenarios)‏

2.5

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

0

PV shortage cost ($ billions)‏


The current plan performs poorly under many possible future conditions

The Current Plan Performs PoorlyUnder Many Possible Future Conditions

Current Plan Forever

4.0

(120 of 200 Scenarios)‏

PV supply cost

($ billions)‏

3.5

3.0

$3.75 billion cost threshold

2.5

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

0

PV shortage cost ($ billions)‏


Statistical analyses suggested three major vulnerabilities to the ieua plan

Statistical Analyses Suggested Three MajorVulnerabilities to the IEUA Plan

Strong declines in precipitation

Reductions in imported supply

Changes in groundwater replenishment

Current Plan Forever

4.0

(120 of 200 Scenarios)‏

PV supply cost

($ billions)‏

3.5

3.0

$3.75 billion cost threshold

2.5

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

0

PV shortage cost ($ billions)‏


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