INP-MAY 03
Download
1 / 49

Inland Navigation Planning Current Practice May 9, 2003 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 174 Views
  • Uploaded on

INP-MAY 03. Inland Navigation Planning Current Practice May 9, 2003. Paul J. Hanley Economist, CELRD-CM-P 513 684-3598 http://[email protected] INP-MAY 03. Planning Process Evaluation Framework Evaluation Procedures Practical Issues. I. Planning Process.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Inland Navigation Planning Current Practice May 9, 2003' - effie


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
Slide1 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03

Inland Navigation Planning

Current Practice

May 9, 2003

Paul J. Hanley

Economist, CELRD-CM-P

513 684-3598

http://[email protected]


Slide2 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03

  • Planning Process

  • Evaluation Framework

  • Evaluation Procedures

  • Practical Issues



Slide4 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03

“Planning Guidance Notebook”

Ref. ER 1105-2-100, 22 April 2000

http://www.usace.army.mil/inet/functions/cw/cecwp/General_guidance/guidance.htm


Slide5 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03

Six Steps

  • Identifying Problems and Opportunities

  • Inventorying and Forecasting Conditions

  • Formulating Alternative Plans

  • Evaluating Alternative Plans

  • Comparing Alternative Plans

  • Selecting a Plan


Slide6 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03

II. Evaluation Framework

  • NED Benefits

  • Without-Project Condition

  • With-Project Condition

  • Evaluation Procedures


Slide7 l.jpg

$

Improved

Current

Navigation

Navigation

System

System

Cost

Cost

Alternate

Benefits of

Mode Cost

Current

System

Demand for Transport

O

Q

Q

Tonnage

1

2

Benefits of

Improved

System

Current Practice and Issues

Development of the Without Condition is the Starting Point for Successful Analysis

  • Determine structural reliability (condition)

  • Optimize non-structural management measures (capacity)

  • Estimate traffic movements (demand)

  • Evaluate incremental benefits of alternate maintenance scenarios and non-structural measures


Slide8 l.jpg

Project Evaluation

III. Evaluation Procedures


Slide9 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03

“ ….evaluation of navigation projects shall be conducted following the process described in para 2-3e of this regulation.”

(ER 1105-2-100)


Slide10 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03

“ …. The base economic benefit of a navigation project is the reduction in the value of resources required to transport commodities.”

(ER 1105-2-100)


Slide11 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03

“ ….ten steps are used to estimate benefits associated with improvements of the inland navigation system.”

(ER 1105-2-100)


Slide12 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03

Step 1 – Identify the Commodity Types

(ER 1105-2-100)


Slide13 l.jpg

LRD Navigation Overview

Major Users of Waterway Transportation

  • 1. High Dependence

    • Coal Mining

    • Electric Generating

    • Coke/Steel Production

    • Petrol-Chemicals

    • Construction

  • Low Dependence

    • Agriculture

    • Wood Products

Ohio River Basin


Slide14 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03

Step 2 – Identify the Study Area

(ER 1105-2-100)


Slide16 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03

Step 3 – Determine Current Commodity Flow

(ER 1105-2-100)


Slide18 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03

Step 4 – Determine Current Cost of Waterway Use

(ER 1105-2-100)


Slide19 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03

Step 5 – Determine Current Cost of Alternative Movement

(ER 1105-2-100)


Slide20 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03

Step 6 – Forecast Potential Waterway Traffic by Commodity

(ER 1105-2-100)


Traffic scenarios l.jpg

INP-MAY 03

Traffic Scenarios


Slide22 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03

Step 7 – Determine Future Cost of Alternative Mode

(ER 1105-2-100)


Slide23 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03

Step 8 – Determine Future Cost of Waterway Use

(ER 1105-2-100)


Slide24 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03

Step 9 – Determine Waterway Use, With and Without-Project

(ER 1105-2-100)


Incremental benefit stream l.jpg

Current Practice and Issues

Incremental Benefit Stream


Slide26 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03

Step 10 – Compute NED Benefits

(ER 1105-2-100)


Slide27 l.jpg

“Hell Sundance,

If it was easy, everybody would be doin’ it!”

Butch Cassidy


Slide28 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03

IV. Practical Issues


Slide29 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03

  • Selected Problems

  • Shippers & Congestion

  • Capacity Management

  • Traffic Scenarios

  • Externalities

  • Disjointed incrementalism


Slide30 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03

“Nobody goes there anymore, it’s too crowded”

Yogi Berra


Slide31 l.jpg

Current Practice and Issues

Modeling Lock Congestion

  • Discrete-event simulation

  • WAM requires detailed data input

  • Shipment is randomly generated using LPMS distributions

  • Based on the tow characteristics & project state, shipment is processed

  • Statistics are accumulated and an average delay for the year is calculated

Tonnage-Transit Curve WAM Simulation Results


Slide32 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03

ORS Rate-savings Ranked Movements

US Army Corpsof Engineers

Great Lakes & Ohio River Division


Slide33 l.jpg

10

20

30

9

19

29

August

September

Average Daily Delay Per Tow

6

$ 15 million

4

Days

2

J.T.Myers L&D

0

1989


Slide34 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03

  • Selected Problems

  • Shippers & Congestion

  • Capacity Management

  • Traffic Scenarios

  • Externalities

  • Disjointed incrementalism


Slide35 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03

  • Capacity Management

  • Small Scale Improvements

  • Helper Boats

  • Lockage Policies

  • Scheduled Lockages

  • Congestion Fees


Slide36 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03

Tonnage-Transit Relationships

US Army Corpsof Engineers

Great Lakes & Ohio River Division


Slide37 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03

  • Selected Problems

  • Shippers & Congestion

  • Capacity Management

  • Traffic Scenarios

  • Externalities

  • Disjointed incrementalism


Traffic scenarios38 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03

Traffic Scenarios


Key drivers for coal l.jpg

Population  Electricity demand

Income growth  Electricity demand

Energy intensity  Electricity demand

Government utility regulation  Electricity demand and coal use

Key Drivers for Coal


Slide40 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03

  • Selected Problems

  • Shippers & Congestion

  • Capacity Management

  • Traffic Scenarios

  • Externalities

  • Disjointed incrementalism


Slide41 l.jpg

Other Transportation Impacts

Air Quality

Highway Safety


Slide42 l.jpg

Externality Costs Associated With An Unscheduled

180 Day Closure of Chickamauga Lock

Air Pollution

26%

Congestion

Incidents

54%

7%

Accidents and Deaths

13%

Pavement Damage

0%


Slide43 l.jpg

Externality Costs Per Ton

of DivertedTraffic

25

Dollars Per Ton Ranges

20

from 2.3 to 19.6

15

1.7 million tons of

Dollars

actual and potential

traffic are diverted to

10

truck in the study

5

0

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Year


Slide44 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03

  • Selected Problems

  • Shippers & Congestion

  • Capacity Management

  • Traffic Scenarios

  • Externalities

  • Disjointed incrementalism


Disjointed incrementalism l.jpg

“…better data will help the system to be understood. Reiterating what we've known for ages – you can't manage what you can't measure -- better information should lead to better infrastructure utilization.”

Stephen Van Beek,

Associate Deputy Secretary of Transportation

INP-MAY 03

"disjointed incrementalism"


Slide46 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03 Reiterating what we've known for ages – you can't manage what you can't measure -- better information should lead to better infrastructure utilization.”

  • Recurring Themes

  • Uncertainty in the Present

  • Uncertainty in the Future

  • Comprehensiveness

  • External Pressures


Slide47 l.jpg

INP-MAY 03 Reiterating what we've known for ages – you can't manage what you can't measure -- better information should lead to better infrastructure utilization.”

  • Planning Process

  • Evaluation Framework

  • Evaluation Procedures

  • Practical Issues


Slide48 l.jpg

Current Practice and Issues Reiterating what we've known for ages – you can't manage what you can't measure -- better information should lead to better infrastructure utilization.”

System Modeling

Are our analytical models appropriate to the task?

  • Demand - ARS

  • Supply - ATC

  • Consumer surplus

  • Producer surplus

  • Without project

  • With project

  • Incremental analysis


Slide49 l.jpg

Current Practice and Issues Reiterating what we've known for ages – you can't manage what you can't measure -- better information should lead to better infrastructure utilization.”

Non-Structural Alternatives

Can we better manage the existing system?

  • helper boats

  • lockage policy

  • cut limits

  • traffic management

  • traffic scheduling

  • lockage fees

  • small cap improvements


ad