The Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program (RISA): Designing effective assessments for...
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 87

Roger S. Pulwarty NOAA Boulder CO 80305 CIG, WWA, CAP, CLIMAS,GCDAMP PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 102 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

The Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program (RISA): Designing effective assessments for decision support. Roger S. Pulwarty NOAA Boulder CO 80305 CIG, WWA, CAP, CLIMAS,GCDAMP. What/where are the critical issues and who is/are defining them? What are the processes?

Download Presentation

Roger S. Pulwarty NOAA Boulder CO 80305 CIG, WWA, CAP, CLIMAS,GCDAMP

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

The Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program (RISA): Designing effective assessments for decision support

Roger S. Pulwarty

NOAA

Boulder CO 80305

CIG, WWA, CAP, CLIMAS,GCDAMP


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

  • What/where are the critical issues and who is/are defining them?

  • What are the processes?

  • What are the applications?

  • What are the outcomes?


Planning for climate risks

Planning for climate risks?

There is strong

evidence

that existing climate

risks are not being

adequately incorporated

into decision-making,

even with regard to

weather extremes

(Source: MunichRe, Topics Geo Annual Review, Natural Catastrophes, 2005)


Conclusions so far

Conclusions, so far

  • Degradation is often a long-term process with cumulative phases of acceleration and deceleration

  • Rates of changes are important

  • Processes involve multiple timescales

    (conjunction of several factors at unique points)

  • Degradation must be placed within wider social and environmental dynamics (other phases of landscape transformation)

    eg size of settlements and adequacy of social mechanisms to deal with changing circumstances


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

Three reasons for assessing climate change in the context of adaptation to extremes and variability:

  • A strictly long-term focus can overshadow the role of surprise in shaping responses

    (2) Adaptations in many cases are driven by crises, learning and redesign

    (3) Opportunities exist to learn from organizations that cope with change and focus on responses and social networking such as disaster relief and research

    ……..BUT—long-term scenarios can also bring focus on changes in extremes…

(Orlove, 2004: Pulwarty, Broad, Finan, 2003)


The asipu a group of priests in the tigris euphrates valley 2500 3000 bc

The Asipu A group of priests in the Tigris-Euphrates valley 2500-3000 BC

  • Hazard identification

  • Data collection and analysis

  • Generation of alternatives

  • Report creation


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

Integrated assessment

Forecast generation

Projections

Dissemination

Utilization


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

Problem-solving approaches conditioned by system uncertainty and decision stakes

(Adapted with permission from Functowicz and Ravetz, 1990)

>2 nd Order Contexts

(Integrated Assessments

Decision-support)

Decision Stakes:

Consultancy

(Specific

applications

&output)

Can/should probabilities be specified for this area?

Applied

Sciences

(Impacts)

Problem solving

approach

System Uncertainty

Physical systems:and linkages

Economics &Human Dimensions


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

Capabilities and vulnerabilities matrix


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

Drought


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

Mantua 2005


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

Focusing event(s) and cumulative Impacts

Response

Preparedness

Mitigation

Recovery

Prevention

Development


Multiple competing values multiple competing objectives

Multiple competing valuesMultiple, competing objectives

Hydropower

Ecosystems

health

Recreation

Consumptiveuse

Flood

control

Agriculture


Benefits of controlling seasonality hydrology

Benefits of controlling seasonality/hydrology

  • Conveyance of flood waters

  • Storage for irrigation (and power)

  • Predictable navigation opportunity

  • Enhanced recreational uses

    Adaptation requirements

  • Sufficient water resources for experimentation

  • Resilience identified/understood in key ecosystem components

  • Flexibility among stakeholders

  • Room for political negotiations


Where do science and policy speak to each other and what do they talk about

Where do science and policy speak to each other?and, what do they talk about?


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

Interacting with other

Disciplines


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

Interacting with other

institutions

Environment

Industry

State

Communities

International

Pressures


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

Interacting........

Are we exceeding design specs on this stand?

No, you’re biased

You’re biased

Everyone is

biased

except me

Oh, you’re biased


Lessons from the disaster research community

Lessons from the disaster research community

Technical range of choice

  • (state of knowledge, technology, resources at a given point in time)

    Practical range of choice

  • (culture, community, practice, communication)

    No choice

  • (power, access/procedure, capacity)


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

Where do science, policy and practice, speak to each other?and, what do they talk about?Climate variability and change:


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

Q 3. Find x

x

3 cm

4 cm


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

Q 3. Find x

Here it is !

x

3 cm

4 cm


Regional integrated sciences and assessments objectives and approaches

Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments:Objectives and Approaches

Characterize the state of knowledge of climate variations and changes, and their social, economic, and ecological interaction, impacts and projections at appropriate scales of interest within a region

  • Identify knowledge gaps in selected critical climate-environment-society problems in a region and carry out research to bridge these gaps as needed

    Assess regional and local resources, capacity , and decision-support dialogs needed in responding to environmental variability and change

  • Carry out research focused on realizing the benefits of integrated knowledge and forecasts in different contexts and provide an informed basis for place-based decision support and services


Approach to integrated research

Approach to Integrated Research

  • First vertical assessment, then horizontal

  • 1. Understand the physical system, including predictability and uncertainty

  • Understand the managed system, i.e. the nature and consequences of human choices and activities

  • Understand the institutional context of these systems, e.g. processes, laws, constraints, decision calendars, and customs under which human choices are made

  • Work with regional stakeholders at all stages.


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

Assessment

….viewed from Information chain

Information and Decision Support Systems

Knowledge-based Products

Observations and Monitoring

Climate Simulations

Interdisciplinary Research

Observations and Monitoring

Interdisciplinary Research

The Decision

The Decision

  • Framing the question

  • Synthesis tools

    • Data assimilation & visualization

    • Complexity models

    • Scenario development and testing

  • Understanding methodologies

  • Place-based

  • Network design

  • Platforms

  • Appropriate mix of observations

  • Quality assurance and control

  • Types of models

  • Scale

    • Temporal

    • Spatial

  • Performancemetrics

  • Climate simulations & scenarios

  • Social trends

    • Demographics

    • Energy use

    • Land use

  • Institutions

    • Policies

    • Laws

  • Values

  • Politics

  • Dialog, not two monologues

  • Place-based and sector-based

  • User oriented

  • Scenarios and probabilistic outcomes

  • Synthesis

  • Distributed dissemination

  • New technologies

  • Interactive

  • User friendly

  • Flexible

Information and Decision Support Systems

The Decision

Knowledge-based Products

Climate Simulations

Knowledge-based Products

Observations and Monitoring

Climate Simulations

Interdisciplinary Research

Interdisciplinary Research

Improved

Decision

Process

Observations and Monitoring

The Decision

The Decision

Interdisciplinary Research

The Decision

Climate Simulations

Observations and Monitoring

Interdisciplinary Research

The Decision


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

Usual stakeholder interaction

  • Concentrates on the incorporation of new knowledge or experience into existing models, decision processes and practices

    Needed

  • The most important learning involves values, norms, goals, and the basic “framing” of issues in terms of the drivers and importance

  • Innovative partnerships incl.research


Elements of adaptive management learning by doing

Elements of adaptive management: Learning by doing

  • Recognition of scientific and management complexity and uncertainty /with practitioners

  • Directive and/or need for action

  • Implement management actions to address resource problems as experiments

  • Monitor and evaluate effects of action/experiments (what works, what does not)

  • Develop integrated models for watershed interactions, legal and cultural requirements etc.

  • Develop experiments in a participatory process involving a key parties (transactions costs)


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

NOAA & NOAA-Supported Centers

International

Research Institute

RISA – Pacific Northwest

High Plains RCC

University of Nebraska

Midwestern RCC

Illinois State Water Survey

RISA – Western Water

RISA – NewHampshire

Northeast RCC

Cornell University

Western RCC

Desert Research

Institute

Climate Prediction

Center, Climate

Services Division

Climate Diagnostic

Center

National Climatic

Data Center

RISA – California

National Center

Regional Center

Southeast RCC

S.C. Dept. of Natural

Resources

Pacific ENSO

Applications

Center

States Participating

In Two Regions

Southern RCC

Louisiana State

University

RISA’s

RISA – Florida

NWS RHQ

RISA – Arizona - CLIMAS


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

Seattle PUD

WDOE/Water Supp.

Portland Water Bur.

NPPC

BPA

Seattle City Light

Tacoma P&L

NOAA River FC

US Army Corps

Seattle City Council

PNNL

OSU/USFS

US Forest Service

National Park Service

WDNR

U of I

Water Markets/

Energy

Hydrology/

Water Resources

Forests/

Forest

hydrology

ID Governor’s Office

State Legislature

USDOI - Western

Regional Office

Climate

Dynamics

WSU

Agriculture

Human

Health

Aquatic

Ecosystems

BLM

NRCS

Farmers

Irrigation districts

WA Department

of Health

Coastal Activities

WDOE

Shorelands Prog.

WDFW

NMFS

NPFMC

PFMC

NWIFC

CRITFC

IPHC

OSU

Battelle - Seattle

OR Dept. of Lands &

Development, Coastal

Management Prog.


Integrated decision support modeling tool

Integrated Decision Support Modeling Tool

  • Stresses:

  • Climate Variability and

  • Change (e.g., drought)

  • Regional growth

    • Increased population

    • Changes in land use

Responses:

New storage

Conjunctive Use

Increased Reuse

Agricultural Efficiency

Conservation

  • Will there be sufficient water of adequate quality to meet competing demands?

    • Municipal and Industrial

    • Agriculture

    • Environment

Goal: Improve regional capabilities to

adapt to climate-related impacts.


Projected population growth

45 Million

64 Million

Projected Population Growth

NV

AZ

UT

NM

CO

CA

USA


Issue so many stakeholders

Issue: So Many Stakeholders!

Continental Scale:

Focus of modelers

Different Scales (time & space)

Different Issues

Different Stakeholders

Watershed/Local Scale:

Where impacts happen

Where stakeholders exist


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

http://hydis6.hwr.arizona.edu/ForecastEvaluationTool/

  • Initially for NWS CPC climate forecasts

  • Six elements in our webtool:

  • Exploring Forecast Progression

  • Forecast Interpretation - Tutorials

  • Forecast Performance

  • Historical Context

  • Use in Decision Making

  • Details: Forecast Techniques, Research


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

2003

2002

2004

Historical Context for Forecasts/projections

Requested by

Fire managers…

Applicable to any

climate variable

La Nina

Recent History | Possible Futures

Neutral Non-ENSO sequences


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

45 Million

64 Million

2025

2000

Population


Wildfire threat forecast

Wildfire Threat forecast

  • The end product is a monthly, county-by-county forecast of the KBDI.

  • Graphic shows the probability of at least 7 days in the month being above or below critical thresholds.

  • Thresholds were determined with input from forestry and wildfire experts.

  • Forecast was based on the Neutral ENSO phase.


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

How Good are Available Forecasts Projections?

  • Natural

  • science

  • Social science

  • Stakeholder interaction


Cdc cires western water assessment mission

CDC-CIRES Western Water Assessment Mission:

To improve water-related decision-making and management in the Interior West by increasing the scope, quality, availability and relevance of climate products and knowledge


Colorado river flow departures from average

Colorado River Flow Departures from Average

WET

DRY

Compact

GCD

Salton Sea

Climatic InfluencesENSOPDO/VSouthwest MonsoonLand Surface Feedbacks Extreme Events


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

Colorado River at Lees Ferry reconstructed flow

1530-1990s


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

Timescales

Indeterminate

Long-term

Decade

Annual

Seasonal

Daily-monthly

Hourly

Flows necessary to protect endangered species

Inter-basin allocations and those allocations among states

Upper Basin delivery obligations

Lake Powell-Lake Mead equalization storage

Peak heating and cooling months

Flood control operations, Kanab amber snail impacts

Western Area Power Administration’s power generation decisions

Household-municipal-

county

Tribal/State

Regional

National

Global


Water resources decision calendars

Planning

Planning

Planning

Planning

Planning

Hydropower Decision Calendars

Municipal & Industrial Decision Calendars

Aquatic Ecosystems Decision Calendars

data

data

data

data

data

Outdoor Recreation Decision Calendars

decisions

decisions

decisions

decisions

decisions

Agriculture Production Decision Calendars

tion planning

tion planning

tion planning

tion planning

tion planning

gmentation

gmentation

gmentation

gmentation

gmentation

releases

releases

releases

releases

releases

Oct

Oct

Oct

Oct

Oct

Water Resources: Decision calendars


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

Reservoir Management Decision Calendar

Water Year Planning Next Water Year Planning

Provide for late Summer/early Fall irrigation while maintaining target flows

Next water year runoff unknown, reserve water until February snowpack observations

Winter season precipitation forecast for Fall release decisions

Winter releases based on January/February snowpack observations

Winter/Spring forecast for Winter release decisions

Peak Flow Augmentation - fill curve

Legend:

Summer season forecast for Peak Augmentation planning

Planning Process

Week 2 forecasts for Peak Augmentation

Operational issues

Peak Flow Augmentation releases

Potential use of forecasts

Plan releases for Summer irrigation & hydropower

Week 2 forecasts for Summer irrigation & hydropower release decisions

Provide for Summer irrigation & hydropower needs while maintaining target flows


Regional water issues activities

Regional Water Issues Activities


Regional water issues activities1

Regional Water Issues Activities


Key partnerships

Key partnerships


How does risa support adaptation to climate variability and change

Research

RISA

Decision-support

Outreach

How Does RISA Support Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change?

Decision-support tools:

Designed to facilitate use of climate information in operations and planning

Research:

Investigating sensitivity and vulnerability to climate variability and change

Provides the foundation for decision support and outreach activities

Outreach:

Designed to develop (and maintain) ongoing relationships with the stakeholder community


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

Research categories identified by participating groups

Strategic

  • Mission focused, seeks understand natural and human processes identified as important to the solution of a specified problem

    Applied

  • Uses existing knowledge to identify approaches and develop prototype technologies and processes to solve problems of widespread importance

    Adaptive

  • Articulate problems at local and regional scales

  • Identify appropriate approaches to solution

  • Relevant prototype technologies/processes

  • Fit these to the particular circumstances of specific groups


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

Robustness Strategies for Information:

  • Knowledge and information

    • Scientifically credible

    • Socially robust

      • Political legitimacy

      • Practical utility

      • Effectiveness

      • To what extent are probabilistic estimates about the future climate impacts robust?

        (given inability so far to include ENSO, AMO others)


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

  • Raising awareness of the role of climate

    Increasing capacity for response

  • Innovative research partnerships

  • Informing decsionmaking: Understanding context, communication and pratice


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

Approaches to risk communication and associated assumptions: Beyond “two-way” communication

___________________________________________________________________________

ApproachAssumptions and actions

Development andFrom the risk expert to the public--finite and

delivery of a risk messageuni-directional

Aimed at bringing public views into line with expert views

Assumes expert view has more validity for decision-making

Dialogue about riskInteractive exchange of risk information--continuous

Aimed at balancing the content of risk message

Assumes both views contribute to decision-making

Social processesEngage in a process that addresses concerns about risk

of risk communicationAimed at enhancing understanding among stakeholders (DECISIVE AND NON-DECISIVE). Assumes the process is as important as the product

______________________________________________________________________


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

Is the research relevant

for decisions?

Analysis of usefulness for policy/decision making arena

Are the sources/providers of

information credible

to the decision maker?

Is the research compatible

with existing

decision models?

Are policymakers

receptive to the

problem and to research?

Is the research accessible to

policy/decision maker?

Goals, Criticality, time frame, basis for decisions,usability,entry points, experience


Water resources frames

Water Resources: frames


Managing uncertainty

Managing Uncertainty:

Where is the uncertainty?

- adequate theory

-multiple hypotheses

& congruent management

actions.

-tractability (complexity)

-confronting models w/data

-independence/ rigor

-novelty

-Problem Domain

-science

-organizational

-community

-political


Managing uncertainty1

Managing Uncertainty:

-Problem Domain

-science

-organizational

-community

-political

- expressions of power

- multiple equilibria

paths not taken

- NONE are scale invariant

- stability of institutions

novelty of approaches

- role of epistemic groups

- multiple discourses

- juggling domains


A sea change in perceptions

A Sea Change in Perceptions

Dramatic change in stakeholder perceptions of value and relevance of information about climate variability and change…

1995:Few managers saw role for climate info, recognized predictability of climate, or possessed a conceptual framework for applying climate info

1997-98: El Niño and concomittant media attention stimulated widespread interest in information about climate variability and in CIG

Most stakeholders unfamiliar with potential impacts of climate change and unprepared to use such information

2001: Senior-level water resources managers recognize climate change as a potentially significant threat to regional water resources; acknowledge climate change information as critical to future planning

2001/2:50-year drought brings intense media attention to issue and CIG’s work  public & private pressure on State agencies to include CC impacts in long-term planning  significant involvement of CIG in multiple efforts

2003 to present day: Continued significant breakthroughs with stakeholder groups


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

What’s your conceptual model?

What is your mental model?

How does this affect your choice of problems and recommended solutions?

What “ought” to be done is easier to specify than to understand what is being done


Where do science and policy speak to each other

Where do science and policy speak to each other?


Characteristics of successful conservation and resources based agreements in the western us

Characteristics of successful conservation and resources-based agreements in the Western US

  • Strong focusing events

  • Significant public interest

  • Personal attention of key leaders

  • Close interjurisdictional partnerships

  • Strong funding for research: collaboration between research and management

  • Meaningful Stakeholder involvement


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

  • Workshops and meetings (shared scenario construction; shared model building?)

  • Presentations and briefings (incl. locally organized events, e.g. hearings)

  • One-on-one technical assistance

  • Coordination with other ongoing projects

  • Work with the local media

  • Web site development and maintenance

  • Graduate-level courses on climate impacts & adaptation

    What else is needed? Research on the role of climate information in adaptive governance…


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

  • Adaptive governance

  • Integrates various types of knowledge and organizations

  • Recognizes redundancy and slack as buffers

  • -relies on open decision-making processes recognizing multiple interests, community-based initiatives, and integrative science in addition to traditional science


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

Local information system

  • Discrete set of information resources organized for the collection, processing, maintenance, transmission, and dissemination of information in accordance with defined procedures to meet specific needs

    Major information system

    Special management attention because of its importance to an agency mission, its high development or maintenance costs or its significant role in the administration of agency programs, finance, property or other records


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

Hazard Information

Past incidence:Maps, factors

affecting occurrence

Criticality: From hazards to vulnerability to risk

Element of Concern

Critical facilities, natural resources,

agriculture, population,

development (existing./proposed)

Hazard

Assessment

Site and Feature Characteristics

Specific damage/loss estimate

Physical suite characteristics,

structural strength, content exposure

Vulnerability

Assessment

What are the hazards?

What severity?

What return periods?

Who, what are

vulnerable

Why?

Risk

Assessment

What is the expected

degree of loss?

Economic Analysis

Of risk reduction

options

Identification of

risk reduction options

Formulation of

desired risk

reduction strategy


Implications for regional climate services

Implications for Regional Climate Services

  • Developing the institutional capacity to provide climate services is neither quick nor easy. Requires:

    • Defining the types of climate information that are most useful for the specified applications

    • Producing very specific, mutually defined products

    • Building trust with stakeholders over time

    • Developing an integrated research and outreach team for continued innovation


Team design and evolution what mix of disciplines partnerships and institutions

Team design and evolutionWhat mix of disciplines, partnerships and institutions?


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

Adaptation experiences to inform governance (1)

  • Clarification of goals at the human-environment interface

    “while we sought consensus the fish disappeared”

  • Distillation of lessons from comparative appraisals of current and past practices

    “foresight ≠ hindsight”

  • Construction of a solid cooperative foundation for research and management


Adaptation experiences to inform governance 2

Adaptation experiences to inform governance (2)

(4) Assess how policies and practices have been diffused and become embedded in other localized or specialized policy processes

(5) Stimulate the innovation and field-testing of policy experiments for adaptation across climate timescales (not just a particular climate scenario): Need for innovative research partnerships


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

  • Integrate an understanding of local contexts and contending perspectives with an understanding of how new information becomes framed and socialized into agendas;

  • Assess impediments and opportunities to the flow of information including issues of credibility, legitimacy, and acceptability;


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

NOAA & NOAA-Supported Centers

International

Research Institute

RISA – Pacific Northwest

High Plains RCC

University of Nebraska

Midwestern RCC

Illinois State Water Survey

RISA – Western Water

RISA – NewHampshire

Northeast RCC

Cornell University

Western RCC

Desert Research

Institute

Climate Prediction

Center, Climate

Services Division

Climate Diagnostic

Center

National Climatic

Data Center

RISA – California

National Center

Regional Center

Southeast RCC

S.C. Dept. of Natural

Resources

Pacific ENSO

Applications

Center

States Participating

In Two Regions

Southern RCC

Louisiana State

University

RISA’s

RISA – Florida

NWS RHQ

RISA – Arizona - CLIMAS


Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

Interactions:

Participatory Assessments:action-research orientation

A. Assessments:

Situation

Participants

Activities

Needs

Resources/Capacity

  • C.Policy contexts

  • and decision-making

  • processes

  • B.Range of scientific

    knowledge frames:

    predictive capabilities

    uncertainty, ignorance/

    indeterminacy

    D.Dynamic dialogue between researchers (non-decisive)

    and practitioners (decisive) on problem-definition:

    shared understanding of significance and value conflicts

    Constraints:

    Time,$,

    Rates of change


    Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

    A Prototype Pathway for RegionalClimate Information Services

    RISAs, universities, and labs

    Integrating knowledge

    and products (CDC,

    ETL, RCCs, RFCs, SCs)

    Operational

    (RCCs, NCDC,

    CPC, WFOs, SCs,

    other private sector)

    RESEARCH

    &

    DEVELOPMENT

    &

    IMPLEMENTATION

    &

    SERVICES

    Regional Oversight and Evaluation

    OTHER NON-NOAA

    PARTNERS

    new or enhanced regional products information delivery technology

    sustained & systematic communication and feedback


    Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

    National Integrated

    Drought Information System

    (NIDIS)

    “Creating a National Drought Early Warning System”

    • Goal:To enable the Nation to move from a reactive to a more proactive approach to droughts.

    • “WGA believes NOAA should be designated as the federal lead for NIDIS. NOAA should take the initiative to convene and coordinate all of the relevant entities, including federal and non-federal partners, as well as scientists, water users and policy-makers to implement those aspects of NIDIS that can be accomplished under existing authorities and funding.”

    www.westgov.org/wga/publicat/nidis.pdf


    Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

    Doing the wrong thing…more precisely


    Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

    Climate Research Impacts Society… Unexpectedly?


    A pathetic track record for implementation of environmental assessment and adaptive management

    A pathetic track record for implementation of environmental assessment and adaptive management:

    Successful Modeling failure Implementation failure


    We can now build some really impressive looking models

    We can now build some really impressive looking models

    Peregrine falcon

    Cowbird

    Water birds

    Sparrows etc.

    Exotic fishesNative fishes

    Aquatic insectsTerrestrial insects

    Detritus

    Benthic algaeRiparian vegetation

    Flow Turbidity Temperature

    Water management regime


    Early warning sub systems

    Early Warning (sub)Systems

    • Monitoring and forecasting subsystem

      National, regional and local levels

    • Risk assessment sub-system

      Enable disaster management authorities to generate risk and impact scenarios

    • Preparedness sub-system

      Outline and inform actions required to reduce the loss and

      damage expected from an impending hazard event: Who? What? When?

    • Communication and public awareness sub-system

      Communication/delivery of timely information on impending events, potential risk scenarios and preparedness strategies to vulnerable groups

    • Evaluation and feedback sub-system

      Scale: Who are the actors? What are their perspectives and needs? What are the entry points for decision-making? What decisions are made? How can this process be improved


    Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

    National Integrated Drought Information System

    Customer defined measures of drought

    Research

    Prediction

    Monitoring

    Integrating Tools

    Better informed decision making at state, local and individual levels

    ImpactMitigation

    ImprovedResponses

    ProactivePlanning


    Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

    Modify societal characteristics

    • Social system

    • Variation/change

    • Exposure

    • Adjustment process

    • Perception

    • evaluation

    • Response

    • Choice

    • Adoption of practice

    Natural Hazard

    Disaster

    • Natural system

    • Variation/change

    • Magnitude

    • Duration

    • frequency

    • Hazard effects

    • Costs and losses

    • gains

    Emergency

    adjustments

    Modify biophysical characteristics


    Roger s pulwarty noaa boulder co 80305 cig wwa cap climas gcdamp

    Hazard VulnerabilitySocio-economic National and Political Economy International Policy

    D

    I

    S

    A

    S

    T

    E

    R

    EVENTPREPAREDNESS STATUS

    Return period,

    Duration

    Magnitude,Seasonality

    Uncertainty

    Self protectionIncome DistributionGeneration & allocation(location, building Livelihoodsurplus

    qualityOpportunity

    Social ProtectionSocial power&control

    Hurricanes(Building regulationsGENDERDebt criseslevel of scientificHouseholdEnvironmental degradation

    knowledge/use)Security,Nutrition

    Flood

    Drought

    RESILIENCE?CULTURE//STATE

    EarthquakesStrength of assetsIncome,AssetsInstitutional

    Volcanic Discrimination Support

    ActivityRecovery of - Regional

    livelihood - Local

    LandscapeImpacts of previous interventionsBiases, Training

    DiseaseHEALTHSocial precaution/

    Infrastructure, Individual robustness

    Household activities,Access to reliable

    potable water, treatment

    __________________________________________________________________________________________________

    Political ecology of disasters Pulwarty and Riebsame, 1997; Blaikie et al 1994 others


  • Login