The EU energy research modeling tools and the high-level group on hydrogen and fuel cells

1. International Energy Workshop organized by EMF/IEA/IIASA Laxenburg, Austria, 24-26 June 2003 The EU energy research modeling tools and the high-level group on hydrogen and fuel cells Domenico Rossetti di Valdalbero European Commission, DG Research Tel.: +32-2-296.28.11 Fax: +32-2-299.49.91 E-mail: domenico.rossetti-di-valdalbero@cec.eu.int

2. DRIVING FORCES Sustainable Development Gothenburg Summit Kyoto Protocol Johannesburg Conclusions Research Policy Lisbon Strategy European Research Area Barcelona Summit SD, global change and ecosystems Green Paper “Towards a European Strategy for the security of energy supply” White Paper “European Transport Policy for 2010: Time to decide” The EC 6th EAP “Environment 2010: our future, our choice”

3. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS (PRIORITY 6 of the 6th RTD FP) • Sustainable energy systems (810 M€) • Short and medium term impact (DG TREN) • Medium and long term impact (DG RTD) • Sustainable surface transport (610 M€) • Global change and ecosystems (700 M€)

4. SHORT AND MEDIUM-TERM RESEARCH ACTIONS (405 M€) • Clean energy, in particular renewables • Cost effective supply • Large scale integration • Energy savings and energy efficiency • Eco-buildings • Polygeneration • Alternative motor fuels

5. MEDIUM AND LONG-TERMRESEARCH ACTIONS (405 M€) • Fuel cells, including their applications • New technologies for energy carriers, particularly H2 • New and advanced concepts in renewable energy technologies • Capture and sequestration of CO2 • Socio-economic tools and concepts for energy strategy

6. INSTRUMENTS NEW • Integrated Projects (IP) • Networks of Excellence (NoE) “TRADITIONAL” • Specific Targeted Research Projects (STRP) • Co-ordination Actions (CA) • Specific Support Actions (SSA)

7. IP/NoE TRAD. SOCIO-ECONOMIC(2003.ML) • Social issues related to implementation of medium and long term energy technologies • Quantitative and qualitative forecasting methods Quantification of energy externalities

8. POLICY SUPPORT AND ANTICIPATING SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL NEEDS Policy-orientated research The development of tools, indicators and operational parameters for assessing sustainable transport and energy systems performance (economic, environmental and social)

9. EVALUATION CRITERIA(with Threshold marks)cf. Annex B of the Work Programme

10. QUANTITATIVE TOOLS • World energy model: POLES • European energy model: PRIMES • European general equilibrium model: GEM-E3 • European econometric model: NEMESIS • Analytical framework for RES: SAFIRE • External costs accounting system: EXTERNE • Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme: ETSAP

11. QUANTITATIVE RESULTS • World energy, Technology and climate policy Outlook - 2030 (WETO) • European energy and transport - trends to 2030 • Assessing climate response options: policy simulations - insights from using national and international models (ACROPOLIS) - in collaboration with the International Energy Agency

12. QUALITATIVE TOOLS • Delphi method for energy technologies (2030) • Public opinion perception (Eurobarometer) • Energy technology indicators • Participatory methods

13. POLICY-USE OF QUANTITATIVE TOOLS Proposal for a directive of the EP and of the Council on the promotion of electricity from renewable energy sources in the internal electricity market - COM(2000)279 • Use of SAFIRE model Green paper - Towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply - COM(2000)769 • Use of PRIMES and POLES models

14. POLICY-USE OF QUANTITATIVE TOOLS Green Paper on Greenhouse gas emissions trading within the European Union - COM(2000)87 final • Use of PRIMES and POLES models Community guidelines on state aid for environmental protection - OJEC C 37/3 • Use of EXTERNE accounting framework

15. HIGH-LEVEL GROUP ON HYDROGEN AND FUEL CELLS • Established in October 2002 by Commissioners de Palacio and Busquin • Composed of the main H2 and FC stakeholders (research community, industry, public authorities and end-users) • Requested to provide a “collective vision” outlining the research, deployment and non-technical actions needed

16. H2: PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCES, ENERGY CONVERTERS AND APPLICATIONS PS: Sizes of “sectors” have no connection with current or expected markets

17. Biogas, Methanol, Ethanol,... Biomass, … DMFC Reformer PAFC PEM H2 AFC MCFC SOFC PEM Coal, ... Portable Industry Stationary Transport Road Residential Maritime Air FC TECHNOLOGIES, FUELS AND APPLICATIONS AFC = Alkaline Fuel Cells DMFC= Direct Methanol Fuel Cell PAFC = Phosphoric Acid Fuel Cell PEM = Proton Exchange Membrane FC MCFC = Molten Carbonate Fuel Cell SOFC = Solid Oxide Fuel Cell • PS: Sizes of “sectors” have no connection with • current or expected markets

18. KEY ELEMENTS AND DRIVERS FOR A STRATEGIC RESEARCH AGENDA

19. SKELETON FOR A EUROPEAN H2 AND FUEL CELL ROADMAP

20. RECOMMENDATIONS • Creation of a coherent policy framework (transport, energy and environment) rewarding technologies meeting policy objectives • Substantially increase energy RTD budget • Extend demonstration and pilot programmes • Support and integrate socio-economic research • Bringing together financing organisations • Europe-wide education and training programme • Enhancing international cooperation and communication

21. CONCLUSIONS • Constant and durable link among European researchers from various disciplines • A scientific “reference system” to support decision-makers • To combine quantitative and qualitative approaches • Permanent “peer-review” of tools and methodologies • Researchers should foresee and anticipate policy needs (“Roadmap”)