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Lifecycle Modeling

Lifecycle Modeling. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. EPA Modeling Workshop EPA Office of Mobile Sources May 26, 1999. What is lifecycle modeling?. Spreadsheet-based computer model Accounts for all energy and emissions, throughout a production process For fuels, this includes:

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Lifecycle Modeling

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  1. Lifecycle Modeling U.S. Environmental Protection Agency EPA Modeling Workshop EPA Office of Mobile Sources May 26, 1999

  2. What is lifecycle modeling? • Spreadsheet-based computer model • Accounts for all energy and emissions, throughout a production process • For fuels, this includes: • fuel feedstock production • feedstock transport • fuel processing • fuel distribution to the retail outlet

  3. Gasoline Production Process Refueling Fuel Use Fuel Transport via pipeline Crude Refining Crude Production Crude Transport via pipeline

  4. Ethanol Production Process Fuel Processing (EtOH Plant) Feedstock Transport Fuel Dist. Feedstock Development Fuel Combustion

  5. Lifecycle modeling goals • Incorporate entire production process • “explicitly recognizes connections between all dimensions” • Identify key processes, emission sources • Allow equitable comparison between products (i.e. fuels) • Suggest areas for improvement • flexible and user-friendly

  6. How is lifecycle modeling done? • Data is gathered, or assumed, for each step in each process • Equations are compiled to account for entire process for each product • Tracks all materials in and out • Accounts for emissions and energy • Results depend on input data, variables, and assumptions

  7. Corn Farming Corn Transport Outputs Ethanol Processing Ethanol Fuel Distribution Lifecycle Modeling - EtOH example Corn P:N:K Fertilizer Diesel farm equip. Renewable Ethanol Truck Corn Fermentation Coal/Corn Stover Process Energy Electricity Diesel trucks

  8. Approaches to lifecycle modeling Current Users? Purpose? Suggest Improvement? Model inputs? Model outputs? Scope? Policy analysts Make generalcomparisons based on industry averages or assumptions of future No industry-wide estimates industry-wide projections for fuel/feedstock combinations life-cycle including fuel combustion in vehicle

  9. Approaches to lifecycle modeling Current NEW fuel producers To track actual emissions of individual fuel plants Yes actual data for indiv plants plant-specific GHG emissions assoc with individual plants life-cycle excluding fuel combustion in vehicle Users? Purpose? Suggest Improvement? Model inputs? Model outputs? Scope? Policy analysts Make generalcomparisons based on industry averages or assumptions of future No industry-wide estimates industry-wide projections for fuel/feedstock combinations life-cycle including fuel combustion in vehicle

  10. Data Needs • Wide range of data needed, and sources • Not always readily available • data not measured or recorded • confidentiality issues • Varies somewhat, depending on approach • Varies by fuel • Varies by process step

  11. Data Needs By Step: • Feedstock development • most complicated step • not directly controlled by fuel producers • probably cannot rely totally on national defaults • Feedstock Trans - national ave, or regional • Fuel Processing - controlled by producer • Fuel Distribution - minor, base on estimates

  12. Electricity Production Process Fuel Conversion Feedstock Transport Fuel Dist. Fuel Combustion Feedstock Development

  13. Modeling Issues • Complexity, level of detail • Data sources • determining best sources • how much to estimate • how to ensure accuracy • Handling of secondary fuels used • Synergistic impact of upstream and downstream changes

  14. Questions for Stakeholders • What are the goals for lifecycle modeling of alternative fuels? • What are the best available data sources? • How do we standardize methodology? • How do we ensure accuracy? • How can lifecycle modeling inform policy decisions?

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