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Using census data to understand spatial growth patterns in cities

Using census data to understand spatial growth patterns in cities. Leanne Johnson Urban Research Leader, BITRE. Who we are. BITRE is the research arm of the federal Department of Infrastructure and Transport responsibility for cities policy sits within Department Cities Research Team

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Using census data to understand spatial growth patterns in cities

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  1. Using census data to understand spatial growth patterns in cities Leanne Johnson Urban Research Leader, BITRE

  2. Who we are • BITRE is the research arm of the federal Department of Infrastructure and Transport • responsibility for cities policy sits within Department • Cities Research Team • Small team of 3 people within BITRE • Role is to provide analytical support and research that informs Australian Government policy development on cities, as well as wider community understanding

  3. Policy support - Major Cities Unit • National Urban Policy (NUP) to be released in 2011 • NUP Discussion Paper released last year • sets out Australian Government’s thinking on a national approach to urban development and the challenges we must address • Sought public comment (closed 1 March). • MCU’s NUP Background paper and State of Australian Cities report draw extensively on census data to explore issues of productivity, sustainability & livability in our cities

  4. Policy support – other key clients • Policy Development Unit • Sydney Aviation Capacity Taskforce • High Speed Rail • Nation Building • COAG Reform Council • Review of capital city strategic planning systems

  5. Research: Population growth, jobs growth and commuting flows in cities • Objectives • To identify recent spatial changes in employment and population within Australia’s five major cities • To investigate how commuting behaviour has responded to these changes • To analyse progress against urban planning goals • Perth report released in September 2010 • Melbourne & Sydney reports in progress

  6. Methodology • Focus is on post-2001 period • Analysis is undertaken at a range of spatial scales • Information sources • ABS Census of Population and Housing • Estimated resident population • Various state/local government surveys & administrative data • Literature

  7. Population statistics, 2001 to 2006 Source: BITRE analysis of ABS Census of Population and Housing 2001 and 2006

  8. Spatial patterns of population growth and decline, 2001 to 2006 Source: BITRE analysis of ABS Census of Population and Housing 2001 and 2006

  9. Urban consolidation, 2001 to 2006 Bew 43% 62% 70% Population growth share of ‘new growth areas’ 24% 52% 60% Source: BITRE analysis of ABS Census of Population and Housing 2001 and 2006

  10. Employment statistics, 2001 to 2006 Source: BITRE analysis of ABS Census of Population and Housing 2001 and 2006

  11. Spatial patterns of jobs growth, 2001 to 2006 Source: BITRE analysis of ABS Census of Population and Housing 2001 and 2006

  12. Employment growth in centres, 2001 to 2006

  13. Types of commuting flows Mix of commuting flows by type in 2006 Average annual growth rates of different types of commuting flows, 2001 to 2006 Source: BITRE analysis of ABS Census of Population and Housing 2001 and 2006

  14. Drivers of origin-destination commuting flows, 2006 n/a: not yet included in regressions for this city Source: BITRE analysis of ABS Census of Population and Housing 2001 and 2006 and rail or freeway networks

  15. Recent progress against urban planning goals, Perth

  16. Directions • Extend to other cities • identify commonalities & differences across cities • 2011 census will provide up to date picture • Census data enables us to build evidence base about reality of trends shaping the major cities • Where is population growth occurring? • Where is jobs growth occurring? In what industries? • What shifts are occurring in commuting flows, distance etc? • What are implications of projected population & jobs growth for commuting flows and transport demand? • Will identify what practical progress is being achieved against urban planning objectives • Which cities are achieving results on the ground? Why? Policy applications: National Urban Policy Infrastructure investment Congestion management Commonwealth land Sustainable Population Policy COAG Cities Reform Agenda

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