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MOVING PEOPLE AND GOODS SUSTAINABLY AIUS / AITPM Seminar. Garry Glazebrook 12 Nov 2009 University of Technology, Sydney [email protected] The Challenge. Peak Oil is a looming threat Climate Change is only slightly less urgent, and potentially more serious

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MOVING PEOPLE AND GOODS SUSTAINABLY AIUS / AITPM Seminar

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MOVING PEOPLE AND GOODS SUSTAINABLY

AIUS / AITPM Seminar

Garry Glazebrook12 Nov 2009University of Technology, [email protected]


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The Challenge

  • Peak Oil is a looming threat

  • Climate Change is only slightly less urgent, and potentially more serious

  • Health also important (obesity, pollution, social connectivity etc)

  • Transport needs to be more sustainable and our cities more resilient


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WEO 2008 and Uppsala Oil Outlook 2008

Source: Alaklett, 2009


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Coal production forecast

2006


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How long have we got? - Oil

  • Global Oil Production will decline. Australia’s share may also decline with competition from rising demand in China, India etc

  • We should plan for at least 50% reduction in oil availability for transport over the next 30 years

  • Cars will also face increased competition for oil products from trucks, ships, airlines, plastics industry, fertiliser industry etc.

  • There is a possibility that urban car-based travel will be seen as expendable if supplies really get short….


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Substitutes?

  • Gas can be used as a transport fuel (LPG) but also be subject to rising competition, peaking of supply and rising prices.

  • Coal to liquids – problems with logistics, cost and CO2, and with future supply

  • Ethanol and other biofuels also have limits on scale of production and ramp up speed

  • In any event, need to reduce CO2 emissions from transport along with other sectors. Transport can’t expect to escape scot free.


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What are the options for a city like Sydney?

  • Reduce overall travel

  • Shift modes to walk/cycle/public transport

  • Increased energy efficiency within modes

  • Electric power with green electricity

Amount of

Travel

X

Energy / Oil /

Greenhouse

Intensity

Energy / Oil /

Greenhouse


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Reducing Travel…Urban Consolidation…

  • Has been happening, and Sydney has been getting denser, although still low density on a world scale

  • This has probably been a factor in halting the rise in VKT/capita, which has been stable for the last decade

  • Continuing consolidation and TOD will help reduce travel demand per capita, but changes are relatively small.


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Reducing Travel…Employment Location

  • Shifting “Global Sydney” jobs out of the CBD will increase rather than decrease energy, oil and greenhouse emissions

Less specialised jobs can and should be decentralised

But important to have a limited number of major centres (CBD, Parramatta, Macquarie) rather than dozens of small centres which will not be able to justify their own high quality public transport networks.


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Freight

  • Freight task continues to grow

  • Rail still losing out to trucks

  • Need to be serious about mode shift for interstate freight and freight into the port

  • Needs key investments, new models backed by pricing signals


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Personal Mobility

For short trips, need to shift to bikes, scooters and other personal mobility devices..

These can also efficiently access public transport for longer trips..

But greenway networks and secure lock up and shower facilities needed…


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Sustainable Mass Transit


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Sydney’s public transport (especially trains) are very significant…(Cityrail accounts for 10% of weekday travel, 2/3 of public transport passenger-kms in Sydney and 1/3 of all public transport passenger-kms in Australia)


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All trains and trams could be switched to greenpower within 2 years

Cost = $30m pa

Compare with $5b for CBD metro

Costs will decline over time as black-power gets more expensive

10% of our travel could be 100% greenpower tomorrow


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Shifting modes – land use


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But Sydney is falling behind because of lack of appropriate investment


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Shifting modes - investment

  • Sydney’s rail and bus systems have capacity problems

  • There are things we can do in the short term (next five years)….

  • Longer term, we need a comprehensive plan…


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Short term : 33% more trains on the current infrastructure (25% increase to CBD)


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Short term - LRT extensions

Save $5 billion compared with CBD Metro,

And gain better accessibility…


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Short term - integration

Integrated fares and tickets

Quality interchangesIntegrated planning and funding

Integrated information and marketing


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Energy efficiency and sources

  • Shift to hybrids, plug in electrics and smaller cars is starting..

  • But will take decades

  • Assume 50% cut in oil, GHG and energy per VKT within 27 years (2036)


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A Thirty Year PT Plan

  • 10% cut in per capita travel

  • Double walk, cycle, PT usage

  • No further rise in car-VKT

  • >50% cut in oil use, GHG emissions (despite 30% pop growth)


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A Thirty Year PT Plan: Travel by Mode

A= Business as usual; B = 30 Year Plan; C=Major change


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The Overall Plan


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Metro NetworkFill major heavy rail gaps, links CBDs and universities


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Inner City LRT Networkserves secondary radial routes in the inner west, east, and inner southern suburbs, and the CBD


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Bus-based Ring Routes and Park and Ride

40 Strategic P&R facilities

Six Ring Routes for Cross-Regional Travel


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Capacity Enhancements

Peak Hour Heavy Rail and Metros - 2036

Long Term including High Speed Rail

Inbound peak hour trains by route (top)

Build up in peak hour trains arriving CBD, Parramatta and Macquarie (right).


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Funding Sources

  • Users

    • Fares

  • Other beneficiaries

    • Accessibility beneficiaries (land)

    • Congestion relief (road congestion charges)

    • Environmental benefits (carbon taxes etc)

    • Social benefits (general taxation to cover subsidies for children, pensioners etc)


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Implementation

  • $40 billion extra over 30 years to PT

  • Saves at least $100b in car-related costs

  • Implementation by a Sydney Sustainable Transport Board with wide representation


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Conclusions

  • Sydney badly needs a long term plan which addresses peak oil, global warming and other sustainability issues.

  • This needs to have public involvement and public support

  • We have already seen what happens when a city doesn’t have such a plan…

  • The 30 Year Plan aimed to help establish a discussion in Sydney on our future transport needs and solutions


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Independent Public Inquiry

  • Take issue beyond politics – independent of government

  • Public Meetings

  • 500 submissions

  • Market research and funding analysis

  • Key focus on funding, governance, short term improvements and long term enhancement

  • More opportunities for public involvement when draft report is released – will set out various options for comment and feedback.

  • Its our city and out children’s future – its up to us….


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Thank You

Background reports for Public Inquiry

www.transportpublicinquiry.com.au

Copies of the 30 Year Public Transport Plan are available at

http://www.dab.uts.edu.au/research/outcomes


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