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Baseline and MTFR scenarios EECCA and Balkan countries

Baseline and MTFR scenarios EECCA and Balkan countries. Janusz Cofala and Stefan Astrom. Emissions of air pollutants – Belarus, Moldova and Balkan countries. SO2. NOx. Emissions of air pollutants – Belarus, Moldova and Balkan countries, kilotons. VOC. PM2.5.

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Baseline and MTFR scenarios EECCA and Balkan countries

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  1. Baseline and MTFR scenariosEECCA and Balkan countries Janusz Cofala and Stefan Astrom

  2. Emissions of air pollutants – Belarus, Moldova and Balkan countries SO2 NOx

  3. Emissions of air pollutants – Belarus, Moldova and Balkan countries, kilotons VOC PM2.5

  4. Emissions of air pollutants – Belarus, Moldova and Balkan countries NH3

  5. Emissions of air pollutants – Russia and Ukraine, kilotons NOx SO2 PM2.5

  6. Emissions of air pollutants – Russia and Ukraine VOC NH3

  7. Emissions by CORINAIR SNAP 1 category. Million tons, 2000 and 2020 Baseline and MFR scenarios(EECCA and Balkan countries)

  8. Emission control costs (all air pollutants) by country, billion Euro

  9. Emission control costs (all air pollutants) by CORINAIR SNAP 1 category. Billion Euro

  10. Life years lost (YOLLs) by country, million

  11. Loss of life expectancy YOLLs (2000 = 100)

  12. Exceedance of critical loads for eutrophication (2000 = 100%) Total exceedance EECCA + Balkan in 2000 – 2.2 million km2

  13. Loss of life expectancy - Europe BL 2020 MTFR 2020 2000

  14. Summary and conclusions • for majority of countries the baseline emissions of air pollutants are likely to decrease compared with 2000 levels • the exception is ammonia, where the emissions even increase for some countries • because of less stringent current legislation, potential to reduce emissions from EECCA and Balkan countries is higher than in the EU Member States • implementation of stricter controls on emissions from the EECCA and Balkan countries will bring important benefits for human health and for vegetation not only in these countries but in the whole Europe • difference between the baseline and the MTFR scenario can be used to determine cost-efficient reduction levels • optimized scenarios will be discussed in a separate presentation

  15. Details by country • CIAM report 1/2011 • http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/images/stories/meetings/TFIAM39/CIAM2011-1-v12.pdf • GAINS online • http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/

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