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NGA-East Tentative Plan. March 7, 2008. Brainstorming Technical Workshop in 2007. To compile a list of key technical issues and R&D projects to be addressed in the course of NGA-East The list was finalized through iterations

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Nga east tentative plan

NGA-East Tentative Plan

March 7, 2008

Brainstorming technical workshop in 2007
Brainstorming Technical Workshop in 2007

  • To compile a list of key technical issues and R&D projects to be addressed in the course of NGA-East

  • The list was finalized through iterations

  • Consensus was to develop Next Generation Models rather than updating PSHA implementation of the existing models

  • Very short summary of topics…

Supporting r d topics for nga east 1
Supporting R&D Topics for NGA-East: 1

  • Database:

    Compile a database of recorded motions from CEUS and other Stable Continental Regions (SCR)

  • Data will be processed uniformly, reviewed, and QA’d

  • PGA, PGV, PGD, and response spectra for periods 0.01 to 10 sec

Database cont d
Database (cont’d)

  • Database metadata should include:

    • Moment magnitude for all EQs

    • Rupture, JB, epicental and hypocentral distances

    • Vs30 and basin/sediment depth estimates at recording stations

  • In order to save time, for short term, a working group on database is formed

Topic 2
Topic 2

  • Source Rupture Characterization:

    • Source parameter database: Rupture area, moment, …

    • Compare source characteristics of EQs in magnitude range of 4-5 from WUS to CEUS: Any difference? Why?

Topic 3
Topic 3

  • Source-Site Path:

    • Geometrical spreading effects: What is the physical cause for a geometrical spreading steeper than 1/R?

    • Are there differences for geometrical spreading between WUS and CEUS?

Topic 4
Topic 4

  • Site Effects:

    • Define a reference site condition to use in the development of the attenuation models for CEUS

    • Are site-response effects transferable from WUS to CEUS?

Topic 5
Topic 5

  • Constraints on Attenuation Models:

    • Develop and use MMI distributions for CEUS and other SCR earthquakes to constrain and check spectral levels for large magnitudes

    • Collect and analyze liquefaction data to constrain predicted spectral ordinates

Topic 6
Topic 6

  • Ground Motion (GM) Simulation

    • Calibrate & validate GM simulation models using CEUS and other SCR data

    • Use calibrated and validated simulation models to generate GMs to be used by attenuation modelers (for a range of magnitude, distances, …)

Topic 7
Topic 7

  • Modeling Issues for Attenuation

    • Next generation attenuation models for CEUS should be applicable to magnitude 4-8, distances of 500km

    • Horizontal and Vertical components

    • Demonstrate agreement of new models with observed data in CEUS and other SCRs

    • Develop aleatory uncertainty models for CEUS (function of magnitude, distance, …)

Topic 8
Topic 8

  • Implementation of Attenuation Models for PSHA

    • Develop an epistemic uncertainty model

    • Determine weights to be assigned to the new attenuation models

Topic 9
Topic 9

  • Other Related (but out of scope) Project

    • Develop VS30 and depth to bedrock maps for CEUS

Duration budget
Duration & Budget

  • Final models ready to be reviewed by various stakeholders (including USGS):

    • In Five years

    • One year to review, collect comments, adopt for various applications (including National Seismic Hazard Maps)

    • Estimated overall budget: $4.4M (including database, supporting R&D projects, attenuation models,…)

Fully transparent process
Fully Transparent Process

  • During the course of NGA-East program, the database developers, attenuation modelers, researchers, stakeholders and end-users of models will all be involved in a multi-disciplinary and fully transparent process

Fully Transparent Process

  • The compiled database along with its documentations will be available to the public via an NGA-East web site

  • The reports on the supporting research projects will be also available to the public

Fully transparent process1
Fully Transparent Process

  • For each attenuation model, there will be draft and final reports to document modeling development, assumptions, derivations, etc.

  • Reports will be electronically available to the public free of charge

We would like to invite you to join nga east
We would like to invite you to join NGA-East

  • As a co-sponsor:

    • Various organizations will benefit from NGA-East:

      • NRC, USGS, DOE, NEHRP, other Federal Agencies,…private industry, utilities,…

    • Be part of Joint Management Committee (JMC) to direct the program

  • Be involved in various technical activities:

    • Technical working groups; Workshops

    • Supporting R&D projects