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ACA Summit Salzburg Global Seminar. “New Rules for Global Finance” Nicholas W. Conger (WVWC) & Nora Myers (UCWV) October 15, 2011. Appalachian College Association (ACA) Mellon Foundation Fellowship. Salzburg Global Seminar. Austria. Austria. Austrian Alps – The Sound of Music.

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Aca summit salzburg global seminar

ACA Summit Salzburg Global Seminar

“New Rules for Global Finance”

Nicholas W. Conger (WVWC) & Nora Myers (UCWV)

October 15, 2011


Salzburg global seminar

Salzburg Global Seminar











Salzburg global seminar2

Vienna, Austria

-

1st Time in Vienna

Salzburg Global Seminar








University of vienna universit t wien
University of Vienna Universität Wien






Hotel tram to vnb

Tram

Hotel

Hotel & Tram to VNB


Austrian national bank oestereichische national bank onb
Austrian National Bank Oestereichische National Bank (ONB)






2008 Global Financial Crisis

Review of the Carnage…



New rules for global finance

2008 Global Financial Crisis

“The Worst Crisis Since 1929”

  • Commercial Bank Failures in Ireland, UK, Iceland

  • Hedge Fund Failures

  • Investment Bank Failures or Near Failure

  • Two GSE’s placed into Conservatorship

  • Global Insurance Company – CDS

  • Massive U.S. Central Bank & U.S. Treasury Infusion of Capital

New Rules for Global Finance


New rules for global finance1

Architect's of the Multi-Trillion* Fiscal Bailout

  • Hank Paulson – U.S. Treasury Sec

  • Tim Geitner – NY Fed President

  • Ben Bernanke – FED Chairman

  • White House – President’s Bush & Obama

  • Congress: Chris Dodd-Barney Frank

New Rules for Global Finance


Troubled global financial institutions

Northern Rock

Bear Stearns

Lehman Brothers

Merrill Lynch

Bank of America

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Citibank

AIG

Troubled Global Financial Institutions


Salzburg global seminar4

Salzburg Global Seminar

New Rules for Global Finance: Proposals for Regulatory Reform – Topics:

  • Capital Adequacy

  • Regulatory Structure Reforms

  • Oversight of Derivatives

  • Risk Management

  • Systemic Risk

    Europe – Asia - USA

Salzburg Global Seminar



Salzburg global seminar5

Financial Stability:

The Role of the EU & the UK FSB & FSA

  • European Union (EU) Stimulus Plan

  • UK:

    Financial Stability Board (FSB) and

    FSA (Financial Services Authority)

    Starting with the EU…

Salzburg Global Seminar


The european union

  • 27 Member Nations

  • European Council

  • European Commission

  • European Central Bank

  • Maastricst Treaty - 1993

The European Union


The euro the common currency of 17 of the 27 member countries of the european union

The Euro

1€ Coin

The Euro - The Common Currency of 17 of the 27 member countries of the European Union


The european central bank
The European Central Bank

HQ: Frankfort, Germany -- President: Jean-Claude Trichet


Eu stimulus plan

  • November 2008

  • €200 Billion = $300 Billion

  • Macro Economic Plan to Limit the Economic Slowdown:

  • S-T Stimulus to increase Demand and maintain employment

  • L-T investment in strategic sectors (Research & Innovation)

EU Stimulus Plan


Uk bank rescue package

  • October 2008

  • £500 Billion = $850 Billion

  • Restore Market Confidence and Stabilize Banks

  • S-T: Loans & Guarantees

  • Direct Investment in Bank Capital

  • Anglo Irish Bank Corp Act 2009

UK Bank Rescue Package


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European Financial Regulatory Reform and Impact on Banks

  • UK: Centre for Regulatory Strategy:

    Need for Coordinated Regulatory Framework Reforms

  • London School of Economics: Capital Adequacy (Charles Goodhart: Basel II was a “miserable failure”)

  • Austrian Financial Market Authority:

    Euro Zone Problems are Country Concerns

    “We are moving in the right direction”

Salzburg Global Seminar


Salzburg global seminar7

Asian Financial Stability and Reform

  • Asian Development Bank-Manila

    (President Kuroda)

  • Financial Institutions Stability –

    Deputy Governor Vanikkul, Bangkok, Thailand

  • China Banking Regulatory Commission

    Fan Wenzhong

    “My SGS A-Ha - OMG Moment”

Salzburg Global Seminar


Financial stability reforms asia

Asian Development Bank: President Kuroda

  • Global Challenge is Economic Growth & Economic Reform Concurrently (Stimulus & Restraint)

  • Implementation Challenge Within and Across All Regions of the World

Financial Stability Reforms - Asia


Financial stability reforms asia1

Thailand

Financial Institutions Stability – Governor Vanikkul

  • 1997 Currency Crisis (Baht) – Lessons Learned

  • Traditional Conservative Banking Model:10% Growth (ROE)…

  • …Not 25% (Western Target)

Financial Stability Reforms Asia


Financial stability reforms asia2

China

China Banking Regulatory Commission

Fan Wenzhong

  • 1997 Currency & Crisis (Baht) - Russia LTCM

    NPL @ 25%

  • China Hired Banking Experts

  • New Business Model & Risk Management…

Financial Stability Reforms - Asia


China banking regulatory commission cbrc

  • Basel III - Already Implemented

    Staggered Implementation (2019) (12% Average)

  • Regulatory Agencies Centralized

  • New Risk Management Metrics:

    Risk Adjusted-ROE

    NPL’s now at 1-2% Capital @ 12%

    PLL > 200%

China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC)


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U.S. Financial Regulatory Reforms

Center for American Progress (David Min)

The Brookings Institution (Douglas Elliott)

  • History of US Banking System – Glass Steagall

  • Regulatory Structure Fractured – Needs Harmonized

  • Large Banks Getting More Concentrated = ^ Risk

  • Lesson Learned: Due Diligence for PLS

Salzburg Global Seminar


Salzburg global seminar9

US Financial Regulatory Response

  • Initial Stimulus Packages (TARP): $700 Billion

  • Multiple Follow-On FED Programs:

  • Asset-Backed Commercial Paper

  • CP Funding Facility

  • GSE Debt & MBS Purchases

  • Money Market Investor Funding Facility

  • Term ABS Loan Facility

  • US Gov’t Bond Purchases

    Over $3 Trillion…and still counting

Salzburg Global Seminar


U s regulatory reform

US Financial Regulatory Reforms

  • Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (2009)

  • Financial Crisis Inquiry Report (2011)*

  • Dodd-Frank Bill (July 21,2010)…

    * Scope: to examine the causes of the crisis . Membership: 6-D & 4-R. No Policy Recommendations and no specific violations cited.

U.S. Regulatory Reform


U s regulatory reform1

Dodd-Frank Bill: Objectives*

An Act: (1) to promote the financial stability of the United States by improving accountability and transparency in the financial system; (2) to end "too big to fail", (3) to protect the American taxpayer by ending bailouts, (4) to protect consumers from abusive financial services practices, and for other purposes.

*Senator Christopher Dodd (D-Conn) & Representative Barney Frank (D-Mass)

U.S. Regulatory Reform


U s regulatory reform2

Dodd-Frank Bill Accomplishments

Key areas left unaddressed

  • Derivatives

  • Credit Rating Agency Reform

  • Hedge Fund Accounting and Oversight

  • Unlike European System of Legislative Streams

    Weaknesses

  • Too Political

  • Too Fragmented

  • Too Broad

    Tries to do too much

U.S. Regulatory Reform



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NO… enough to prevent a future crisis?

”The proposals are better than we had before, but they do not go far enough”

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Salzburg global seminar11

Other Issues & Proposals enough to prevent a future crisis?

  • Strengthen Corporate Governance

  • Regulation of Non-Banking Institutions

    (Shadow Banking)

  • Global Convergence & Coordination of Regulatory Reforms

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Salzburg global seminar12

Key Takeaways enough to prevent a future crisis?

  • Current Regulatory Proposals Do Not go Far Enough

    (Basel III Bank Capital Adequacy - 2019)

  • “Too Big to Fail Banks” are even Bigger - US

  • Global Regulatory Structures Need To Be Reformed

  • Many Derivatives Markets remain Unregulated

  • Asian Banks have Learned Their Lesson Well

Salzburg Global Seminar


Salzburg global seminar13

Discussion Questions… enough to prevent a future crisis?

Where Do We Go From Here?

  • Critical Thinking Needed

  • Leadership and Hard Decisions Need to be Made

  • New Business & Financial Models Needed…

    …or maybe a return to the old fashioned ones?

    “Earn a Reasonable Return on your Investment”

Salzburg Global Seminar


Micawber principle

Closing Thought* enough to prevent a future crisis?

“Annual income: twenty pounds. Annual expenditure: 19 pounds, nineteen and six, result happiness.

Annual income: twenty pounds. Annual expenditure: twenty pounds, ought and six, result misery.”

Source: David Copperfield, by Charles Dickens (1850). Quote by Wilkins Micawber, modeled on Dickens father, John Dickens who was incarcerated in debtor’s prison after failing to meet his creditor’s demands.

*Micawber Principle


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Questions… enough to prevent a future crisis?

Salzburg Global Seminar


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