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THORPEX

History

THORPEX (THeObserving system Research and Predictability Experiment) was established in 2003 by the Fourteenth World Meteorological Congress. THORPEX is part of the World Weather Research Programme, under the auspices of the WMO Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS), and is a key research component of the WMO Natural Disaster Reduction and Mitigation Programme.

What is THORPEX?

THORPEX is an international research programme to accelerate improvements in the accuracy and utility of high-impact weather forecastsup to two weeks ahead.

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/CD_ROM_international_science_plan_v3.pdf


TIGGE

TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) is a major element of the THORPEX research programme:

Enhancing collaboration on ensemble prediction, internationally and between operational centres and universities.

Supporting research on weather forecasting, especially applications of ensemble forecasting.

Enabling new probabilistic forecast products for a future Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS).

MCGE

TIGGE has made it possible to construct a new ensemble, that is Multi-Center Grand Ensemble

EPS at CMA

EPS at ECMWF

EPS at JMA

EPS at KMA

EPS at XXX


GIFS-TIGGE Products at JMA

  • Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency (MRI/JMA) has developed two types of GIFS-TIGGE products and will provide them to Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project in Southeast Asia.

  • Tropical cyclone track predictions in the western North Pacific

  • Early warning products for extreme weather events


Website

URL: http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/cyclone/

Main Page

Send email to [email protected] to get ID and password


List of available products - TC track -

Deterministic forecast

Ensemble forecast

Strike Probability

Point Strike Probability


Deterministic TC track forecast

Track forecasts from ECMWF, JMA, MSC and NCEP are available as of today.

Red: 0-24h forecast

Green: 24-48h forecast

Purple: 48-72h forecast

Blue: 72-96h forecast

Observed track

Six-hourly plotted


Ensemble TC track forecast

Track forecasts from CMA(ensemble size is 15), ECMWF(51), JMA Typhoon EPS(11), JMA One-week EPS (51), KMA(17), MSC(21), NCEP(21), STI(9) and UKMO(24) are available as of today.

Ensemble TC track forecast by all ensemble member of all centers.

(Ensemble TC track forecast by each center is also available)


Strike probability map

Probability that the center of a storm will pass within 120 km of a location during a 96 hour time interval is shown. Contour levels shown are 5-20% (green), 20-40% (yellow), 40-60% (orange), 60-80% (red) and 80-100% (purple).


Point strike probability map

Time series of strike probability at a selected location (city). Y-axis on the left shows the strike probability at city ILAGAN, and the Y-axis on the right shows the distance between ILAGAN and a TC center.

Time



Typhoon track prediction by MCGE

Good example

Bad example

Typhoon Megi initiated at 1200 UTC 25th Oct. 2010

Typhoon Conson initiated at 1200 UTC 12th Jul. 2010

Observed track

It should be noted that even in the forecasts by all ensemble members of all ensemble prediction systems, several cases miss the best track scenario.


For more information…

About products:

http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/cyclone/readme/readme.html

(need ID and password)

Verification results:

Yamaguchi, M., Nakazawa, T. and Hoshino, S. (2012), On the relative benefits of a multi-centre grand ensemble for tropical cyclone track prediction in the western North Pacific. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 138: 2019–2029.

About THORPEX

http://library.wmo.int/pmb_ged/WMO_TD1258e.pdf

About TIGGE

http://tigge.ecmwf.int/documents/additional/TIGGE_leaflet_2010.pdf

Bougeault, Philippe, and Coauthors, 2010: The thorpex interactive grand global ensemble. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1059–1072.


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