Global climate change and public policy
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Global Climate Change and Public Policy. Peak Oil, Climate Change, and Energy Alternatives Professor Leonard Rodberg Department of Urban Studies Office Powdermaker Rm 250A Email [email protected] Telephone 718-997-5134. 2004. US Oil Production and Imports.

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Global climate change and public policy

Global Climate Change and Public Policy

Peak Oil, Climate Change,

and

Energy Alternatives

Professor Leonard Rodberg

Department of Urban Studies

Office Powdermaker Rm 250A

Email [email protected]

Telephone 718-997-5134


Us oil production and imports

2004

US Oil Production and Imports


The time course of production of any non renewal resource according to m king hubbert

The Time Course of Production of any Non-renewal Resource according to M. King Hubbert


It gets harder and harder to find oil

It Gets Harder and Harder to Find Oil


Hubbert curve for us oil production 1956

Hubbert Curve for US Oil Production - 1956


Us oil production and imports1

2004

US Oil Production and Imports


The paper that started it all

The Paper that Started It All…

*Publication No. 95,Shell Development Company, Exploration and Production Research

Division, Houston, Texas

**Chief Consultant (General Geology).


World energy use by fuel

World Energy Use by Fuel


Hubbert curve for world oil production 1956

Hubbert Curve for World Oil Production - 1956


The decline of new oil discoveries

The Decline of New Oil Discoveries


Oil production worldwide

Oil Production Worldwide


The optimists view

The Optimists’ View


Taking the long view the history of the human race according to m king hubbert

Taking the Long View: The History of the Human Race according to M. King Hubbert


It s getting warmer

It’s Getting Warmer


The long view

Human and Natural Drivers of Climate Change

The Long View

CO2, CH4 and N2O Concentrations

- far exceed pre-industrial values

- increased markedly since 1750

due to human activities

Relatively little variation before

the industrial era


And the sea level is rising

And the Sea Level is Rising


Greenhouse effect

Greenhouse Effect


What are the greenhouse gases

What are the Greenhouse Gases?

  • Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

  • Methane (CH4)

    Principal Source: Burning of Fossil Fuels:

    Oil, natural gas/methane, coal

    Hydrocarbons (CnHm)) + Oxygen (O2)  CO2 + H2O

    Also Nitrous Oxide (N2O)

    Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)


The concentration of co2 is growing

The Concentration of CO2 is Growing


Ghg trends 1970 2004

GHG Trends 1970-2004


Radiative forcing components

Carbon, and Fossil Fuels, are the Culprit

Radiative Forcing Components


Direct observation of recent climate change

Direct Observation of Recent Climate Change

At continental, regional, and ocean basin scales, numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed. These include:

  • Changes in Arctic temperatures and ice,

  • Widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns

  • and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones


Declining sea ice

Declining Sea Ice

http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-basics/facts_and_figures/impacts/lateseaice.cfm


Impacts worldwide

Impacts Worldwide

Spreading disease

Coral reef bleaching

Heat waves and periods of unusually warm weather

Downpours, heavy snowfalls, and flooding

Glaciers melting

Earlier spring arrival

Plant and animal range shifts and population declines

Sea level rise and coastal flooding

Arctic and Antarctic warming

Droughts and fires

GLOBAL WARMING: Early Warning Signs

Fingerprints and Harbingers

www.climatehotmap.org


Why not natural gas

Why Not Natural Gas?

Natural gas causes more global warming but less air pollution mortality than coal over 150 years due to less sulfate (a cooling agent) and more methane (a warming agent) from natural gas than coal. Coal causes higher mortality.

50-70 times more CO2 and air pollution per kWh

than wind

Hydrofracking causes land and water supply degradation


Why not nuclear

Why Not Nuclear?

9-25 times more pollution per kWh than wind from mining & refining uranium, using fossil fuels for electricity during the 11-19 years to permit (6-10 y) and construct (4-9 y) nuclear plant compared with 2-5 years for a wind or solar farm

Risk of meltdown (1.5% of all nuclear reactors to date have melted)

Risk of nuclear weapons proliferation

Unresolved waste issues


Why not ethanol

Why Not Ethanol?

Corn and cellulosic E85 cause same or higher air pollution as gasoline

-- Corn E85: 90-200% of CO2 emissions of

gasoline

-- Cellulosic E85: 50-150% of CO2 emissions of

gasoline

Wind: <1% of CO2 emissions as gasoline

Enormous land use and water requirements


U s carbon stabilization via wedges

U.S. Carbon Stabilization via Wedges

Source: Lashof and Hawkins, NRDC, in Socolow and Pacala,

Scientific American, September 2006, p. 57


Wind electricity

Wind Electricity

Wind Electricity

  • Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:

  • One million 2-MW windmills displacing coal power.

    • Today: 50,000 MW (1/40)

Prototype of 80 m tall Nordex 2,5 MW wind turbine located in Grevenbroich, Germany

(Danish Wind Industry Association)


Photovoltaic power

Photovoltaic Power


Nuclear electricity

Nuclear Electricity

Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:

700 GW (twice current capacity) displacing coal power.

Nuclear

Electricity

Phase out of nuclear power creates the need for another half wedge.

Site: Surry station, James River, VA; 1625 MW since 1972-73.

Credit: Dominion.

A revised goal: retrievable storage

Natural-U plants (no enrichment), no reprocessing

Universal rules and international governance


Biofuels

Biofuels


Efficient use of electricity

Efficient Use of Electricity

Efficient Use of Electricity

lighting

motors

cogeneration

Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:

.

25% reduction in expected 2055 electricity use in commercial and residential buildings

Target commercial and multifamily buildings.


Efficient use of fuel

Efficient Use of Fuel

Efficient Use of Fuel

Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:

Note: 1 car driven 10,000 miles at 30 mpg emits 1 ton of carbon.

2 billion cars driven 10,000 miles per year at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg.

2 billion cars driven, at 30 mpg, 5,000 instead of 10,000 miles per year.

  • Property-tax systems that reinvigorate cities and discourage sprawl


Carbon storage

Carbon Storage

Carbon Storage

Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:

3500 Sleipners @1 MtCO2/yr

100 x U.S. CO2 injection rate for EOR

A flow of CO2 into the Earth equal to the flow of oil out of the Earth today

Sleipner project, offshore Norway

Graphic courtesy of David Hawkins

Graphic courtesy of Statoil ASA


Reforestation and land conservation

Reforestation and Land Conservation


Nyc energy profile 1979

NYC Energy Profile 1979


Saving energy in nyc

Saving Energy in NYC

Source: L. Rodberg and G. Stokes, The Village Voice, Feb. 18, 1980


Planyc mitigation measures

PlaNYC Mitigation Measures


Planyc wedges

PlaNYC Wedges


Planning for a major hurricane

Planning for a Major Hurricane


Both adaptation and mitigation mayor s planyc adapts to some inevitable climate change

Both Adaptation and Mitigation:Mayor’s PlaNYC Adapts to Some Inevitable Climate Change

  • Protect our city’s vital infrastructure

  • Work with vulnerable neighborhoods to develop site-specific strategies

  • Launch a citywide strategic planning process for climate change adaptation


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