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Will Jennings, Stephen Farrall , Colin Hay and Emily Gray PSA2014

Historical Institutionalism , Agendas and Crime : an analysis of the politics of crime since 1979. Will Jennings, Stephen Farrall , Colin Hay and Emily Gray PSA2014. Figure 1: Property Crime Per Capita (Home Office Recorded Statistics and BCS).

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Will Jennings, Stephen Farrall , Colin Hay and Emily Gray PSA2014

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  1. Historical Institutionalism, Agendas and Crime: an analysis of the politics of crime since 1979 Will Jennings, Stephen Farrall, Colin Hay and Emily Gray PSA2014

  2. Figure 1: Property Crime Per Capita (Home Office Recorded Statistics and BCS)

  3. In which ways might this be a legacy of ‘Thatcherite’ policies? Economic change Changes in the housing market Changes in social security provision Changes in education policies (esp. after 1988)

  4. Economic Changes • During the 1970s there was a move away from the commitment to Keynesian policies and full employment. • Dramatic economic restructuring overseen by Thatcher governments. • Consequently, levels of unemployment rose through the 1980s (see Fig 2).

  5. Figure 2: Unemployment Rate (%), 1970-2006

  6. EconomicChanges This in turn led to increases in levels of inequality (Figure 3), augmented by changes in taxation policies which favoured the better off.

  7. Figure 3: Income Inequality (Gini coefficient), 1970-2006

  8. The Economy and Crime in Post-War Britain • Using time series analyses for 1961-2006 Jennings et al (2012) find statistically significant relationships for: 1: the unemployment rate on the rate of property crime (consistent with other studies), 2: we also find that the crime-economy link strengthened during this period. 3: (economic inequality just outside bounds of significance).

  9. Housing Policy • 1980 Housing Act (+ others): created RTB – saw a huge rise in owner-occupation. • Held to have created residualisation of council housing; transient/marginalised residents with low levels of employment. • Contributed to increases in inequality (Ginsberg, 1989) and concentration of crime (Murie, 1997).

  10. Social Security • 1980-1985: Some tinkering with the DHSS. • 1986 Social Security Act based on Fowler Review. • Following this payments reduced for many individual benefits claimants (whilst total spend increased due to unemployment).

  11. Social Security • Evidence to suggest that reductions in government expenditure are associated with rises in crime during the 1980s (Reilly and Witt, 1992). • Jennings et al (2012) suggest that increases in welfare spending is associated with declines in the property crime rate.

  12. Education • Changes in education policies encouraged schools to exclude children in order to improve place in league tables. • Exclusions rose during the 1990s, reaching a peak of 12,668 in 1996-97.

  13. Education • Dumped on the streets this fuelled ASB (Home Office RDS Occ. Paper No. 71). • The BCS 1992-2006 shows sudden jump of people reporting “teens hanging around” to be a problem from an average of 8% before 2001 to 30% after 2002. • School exclusions helped to create discourse of ASB and need for C&DA 1998.

  14. British Crime Survey ASB items

  15. What happened to crime (etc)? • Rise in crime (Fig 5). This was generally rising before 1979, but the rate of increase picked up after early 1980s and again in early 1990s. • Fear of crime rises (tracks crime rates, Fig 6). • People want to see an increase in spending on the police/prisons (with decrease of spending on social security, Fig 7).

  16. Figure 5: Property Crime Per Capita (Home Office Recorded Statistics and BCS)

  17. Figure 6: Percentage worried about crime (BCS 1982-2005)

  18. Fig 7: Priorities for extra spending (social security vs. police) BSAS 1983-2009

  19. Developments post-1993: • Howard (Home Sec 1993-97) talks tough on crime. • Prison population rises immediately (Newburn 2007). • Rise in average sentences: Riddell 1989:170; Newburn 2007:442-4. • Trend continued, appears due to tough sentences and stricter enforcement. MoJ 2009: 2-3 cites mandatory minimum sentences (aimed at burglars and drug traffickers) as a cause. • Prison population grew by 2.5% p.a. from 1945 to 1995, but by 3.8% p.a. 1995-2009 (MoJ, 2009: 4).

  20. Labour Party’s Response • Move to the political right. • ‘Tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime’. • Focus on ‘young offenders’ (Pledge Card, C&DA, YJB, changes to doliincapax). • Did not oppose Crime (Sentences) Act 1997 despite it being quite draconian (‘3 strikes’, minimum mandatory sentences).

  21. Labour In Government Needed to do something about crime because … a) it actually was a problem (peak was in 1994) but still a source of public concern b) they needed to be seen to be doing something to avoid being accused of having ‘gone soft on crime again’.

  22. What have Govts done? • They devote more time to crime in it’s expressed policy agenda (Fig 9). • Little sustained interest in crime until 60s (2%). • After 1979 GE rises to 8%. • Big jump again in 1996 (15%). • Thereafter runs at or near to 20%.

  23. Figure 9: Proportion of attention to law and crime in Queen’s Speech (from policyagendas.org)

  24. What have Govts done? • Farrall and Jennings report statistically significant relationships for: 1: national crime rate on Govt attention on crime in Queen’s Speeches, and, 2: effects of public opinion on Govt. attention on crime in Queen’s Speeches. • So the Govt responds to crime rates and expressions of public concern about crime.

  25. Consistent with Cascades of Policy Radicalism (Hay and Farrall, 2014) • Radicalism cascaded through various sectors of social and economic policy. • Initial focus on the economy and electorally popular policies (e.g. housing). • Social Security reformed mid-1980s. • From 1987 education, NHS, local Govts. • Focus on crime a ‘spillover’ from other areas.

  26. Cascading Policy Radicalism

  27. Further Info/Readings Farrall, S. and Hay, C. (2010) Not So Tough on Crime? Why Weren’t the Thatcher Governments More Radical In Reforming the Criminal Justice System? British Journal of Criminology, 50(3):550-69. Farrall, S. and Jennings, W. (2012) Policy Feedback and the Criminal Justice Agenda: an analysis of the economy, crime rates, politics and public opinion in post-war Britain, Contemporary British History, 26(4):467-488. Farrall, S. and Jennings, W. (2014) Thatcherism and Crime: The Beast that Never Roared?, in Farrall S., and Hay, C. Thatcher’s Legacy: Exploring and Theorising the Long-term Consequencies of Thatcherite Social and Economic Policies, Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 207-233. Farrall, S. and Hay, C. (2014) Locating ‘Thatcherism’ In The ‘Here and Now’, in Farrall S., and Hay, C. Thatcher’s Legacy: Exploring and Theorising the Long-term Consequenciesof Thatcherite Social and Economic Policies, Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 315-339. Farrall, S., Gray, E., Jennings, W. Hay, C. (2014) Using Ideas Derived from Historical Institutionalism to Illuminate the Long-term Impacts on Crime of ‘Thatcherite’ Social and Economic Policies: A Working Paper. Hay, C. and Farrall, S. (2014) Interrogating and Conceptualising the Legacy of Thatcherism, in Farrall S., and Hay, C. Thatcher’s Legacy: Exploring and Theorising the Long-term Consequencies of Thatcherite Social and Economic Policies, Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 3-30. Hay, C. and Farrall, S. (2011) Establishing the ontological status of Thatcherism by gauging its ‘periodisability’: towards a ‘cascade theory’ of public policy radicalism,British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 13(4): 439-58. Jennings, W., Farrall, S. and Bevan, S. (2012) The Economy, Crime and Time: an analysis of recorded property crime in England & Wales 1961-2006, International Journal of Law, Crime and Justice, 40(3):192-210. ESRC grant can be found at: Shef.ac.uk/law/research/projects/crimetrajectories Twitter.com/Thatcher_legacyEmail s.farrall@sheffield.ac.uk to be added to email newsletter.

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