1 / 10

Fast-forward: the Asia-Pacific after the crisis

Fast-forward: the Asia-Pacific after the crisis. Peter A. Petri Brandeis University and East-West Center Asia Pacific Council May 6, 2010. Most likely a “V” Real GDP growth rates. IMF WEO April 2010 “WEO Apr10 groups”.

eara
Download Presentation

Fast-forward: the Asia-Pacific after the crisis

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Fast-forward: the Asia-Pacific after the crisis Peter A. Petri Brandeis University and East-West Center Asia Pacific Council May 6, 2010

  2. Most likely a “V”Real GDP growth rates IMF WEO April 2010 “WEO Apr10 groups”

  3. Growth before and after crisisReal GDP growth rates, 2000-07 and projected 2009-15 IMF WEO April 2010 “WEO Apr10 groups”

  4. The rebalancing challenge • Rebalancing demand • Make demand sustainable (Asian consumption, investment) • Link to engines of growth (Asian trade and demand) • Rebalancing supply • Expand net exports (deficit economies) • Energize non-tradable sectors (surplus economies) • Magnitudes • Imbalances declined in crisis; now rising • Manageable if addressed now

  5. Structural policies

  6. When will China pass the US?Current dollar GDP projection based on prior 5-year growth rate Calculations based on IMF WEO April 2010“catchup graph”

  7. Rebalancing US exports US exports 2009 US export growth, 2009-14 Calculations based on US Department of Commerce trade (5/2/2010) and IMF WEO GDP data (4/2010)“WEO apr10 groups”

  8. US strategic imperative • Priorities • Engage emerging economies (Asia) • Facilitate domestic adjustment (exports) • Manage multi-layered architecture (regional FTAs) • We get it • “We have to lead, and our engagement must extend to governments, business, and peoples across the Pacific.” (Obama) • “The United States is back in Asia… back to stay.” (Clinton) • “We want to be in the game in Asia.” (Geithner)

  9. Crucial 18 months • APEC: Japan 2010, US 2011 • US legislative window: early 2011 • Three dreams • KORUS • Trans-Pacific Partnership • A fruitful Hawaiian APEC • Investment: investment principles • Environment: trade and technology transfer • Demographics: future capital, people flows • Inclusion: spotlight on women

  10. APEC timeline • Japan • June 2010: SOM2, trade, energy • September 2010: SOM3 • November 2010: Leaders’ Meeting (Yokohama) • US • December 2010: informal SOM • Mid 2011: SOM2, trade, energy • November 2011: Leaders’ Meeting (Honolulu)

More Related