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CanSIPS - The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System. Meteorological Service of Canada. Juan Sebastian Fontecilla 1 &

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Cansips the canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system

CanSIPS - The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System

Meteorological Service of Canada

Juan Sebastian Fontecilla1&

Bill Merryfield2, Bertrand Denis1, Slava Kharin2, Woo-Sung Lee2, Jacques Hodgson1, Louis-Philippe Crevier1, Benoit Archambault1, Lewis Poulin1, Ping-An Tan1

1 Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC)

2 Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma)

CMOS 2012, Montreal


Cansips the canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system

OUTLINE

  • Background

  • Description of the new system

  • Forecast skill improvements

  • El Nino / La Nina predictions

  • Future works


Cansips the canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system

Long-Range

(Multi-)Decadal

IPCC-type projections

(scenario dependent)

Forcing scenarios

PDV/AMV?

ENSO

soil moisture initial conditions

Sources of Predictability

Madden-Julian Oscillation

atmospheric

initial conditions

now

day

week

month

season

year

decade

century

Short

Medium

Extended

Forecast Ranges


Cansips the canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system

Long-Range

(Multi-)Decadal

IPCC-type projections

(scenario dependent)

*Not complete

Forcing scenarios

PDV/AMV?

ENSO

soil moisture initial conditions

Sources of Predictability*

Madden-Julian Oscillation

atmospheric

initial conditions

now

day

week

month

season

year

decade

century

Short

Medium

Extended

Forecast Ranges

this talk


Cansips the canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly

El Niño / La Nina


Cansips the canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system

Observed SST anomaly

“Forecast” (persisted) SST anomaly

Motivation for coupled vs2-tier system

Mar 2006

Apr 2006

Example: consider 2-tier forecast (persisted SSTA) from 1 April 2006

May 2006

Jun 2006

Jul 2006

2-tier system with persisted SSTA cannot predict an El Niño or La Niña

Oct 2006


Cansips the canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system

Coupled Historical Forecasting Project II (CHFP2)

  • 1-tier system -> two atmos-ocean-ice coupled systems

  • - CanCM3 = AGCM3 (T63/L31) + OGCM4  10 members

  • +

  • - CanCM4 = AGCM4(T63/L35) + OGCM4  10 members

  • 20 Assimilation & forecast streams

  • “Burst” initialization

  • - Initial conditions valid just before forecast starts – no time lags

  • System climatology based on CanCM3 + CanCM4 Hindcasts

    • - Initialized every month 1981-2010 (30 years)


Nudging iua

Nudging (IUA)

R

R

R

R

0h

3h

6h

9h

12h

15h

18h


Cansips the canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system

Anomaly correlation skill 2-tier vs CanSIPS

2-tier

CanSIPS


Cansips the canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system

First season (Lead 0 months)

Global 2m temperature

Previous system

Previous system

Previous system

CanSIPS

CanSIPS

CanSIPS

CanCM3

CanCM3

CanCM4

CanCM3

CanCM4

CanCM4


Cansips the canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system

First season

Canada 2m temperature

Previous system

Previous system

CanSIPS

CanSIPS


Cansips the canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system

First season

Canada 2m temperature

Previous system

Previous system

CanSIPS

CanSIPS

No skill

No skill


Cansips forecasts june july august 2012

CanSIPS forecastsJune-July-August 2012

Temperature

Precipitation


Cansips the canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system

CanSIPS forecasts

June-July-August 2012

Temperature

Precipitation


Cansips the canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system

CanSIPS forecasts

June-July-August 2012

Temperature

Precipitation


Cansips the canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system

ENSO Skill

- Nino 3.4 region -


Cansips the canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system

Niño3.4 hindcasts initialized monthly from 1 Jan 1997 to 1 Dec 1997

OBS

CanCM4

CanCM3

CanSIPS =

CanCM3+4

1997

1998

1997

1998

ENSO Prediction SkillCase Study: 1997-98 El Niño


Cansips the canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system

CanSIPS

CanSIPS

ENSO Skill Comparison with NCEP CFS

CanSIPS vs CFSv1

CanSIPS vs CFSv2


Cansips the canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system

New products

- Nino indices

- Sea Ice

- Tropical cyclone potential

- ...

New web interface

- Menu driven

- Interactive display of probability forecasts

- Display all hindcasts, verifications

CanSIPS phase II implementation


Cansips the canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system

We are considering:

More ensemble members

Higher resolution

Improved ocean data assimilation in CanCM3/4

Add coupled GEM-NEMO (GEM=NWP model)

Land surface data assimilation

Towards CanSIPSv2


Cansips the canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system

For more information

  • Details of recent implementations at CMC

    • http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmoi/product_guide/docs/changes_e.html

  • Environment Canada’s official seasonal forecast web pages

    • http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html

  • Description of Climate models developed at CCCma

    • - http://www.ec.gc.ca/ccmac-cccma/default.asp?lang=En&n=4A642EDE-1


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