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Severe Weather/Events Forecasting

Severe Weather/Events Forecasting. A. A. Abebe, Z. Mumba, A. Kassimou, J. P. Lafore. Progress made in Developing forecasting at ACMAD. Presentation outline. ACMAD EFFORTS IN IMPROVING WEATHER FORECASTING IN AFRICA. SEVERAL STEPS WITHIN CONTEXT OF AMMA PROJECT. STEP 1: INNOVATION.

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Severe Weather/Events Forecasting

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  1. Severe Weather/Events Forecasting A. A. Abebe, Z. Mumba, A. Kassimou, J. P. Lafore Progress made in Developing forecasting at ACMAD

  2. Presentation outline

  3. ACMAD EFFORTS IN IMPROVING WEATHER FORECASTING IN AFRICA SEVERAL STEPS WITHIN CONTEXT OF AMMA PROJECT STEP 1: INNOVATION DEVELOPMENT/TESTING NEW FORECASTING TOOLS West African Synthetic Analysis - WASA West African Synthetic Forecast - WASF

  4. STRENGTHS OF THE NEW ANALYSIS/FORECAST APPROACH • Standardisation of Forecasting Procedures; • A knowledge and Experiences Sharing Framework Amongst Forecasters; • A Learning Experience for Many

  5. POST AMMA-SOP: STEP 2: WASA/F OPERATIONALISATION AT ACMAD • WASA/F Facilitates Analysis and Forecast preparation; • WASA/F is a Fast Track Introduction to Forecasting for new Entrants.

  6. Step 3: PROJECT APAO (Amélioration des Prévisions en Afrique de l’Ouest) Rich Interaction Initiated Between Forecasters and Scientists During AMMA-SOP FSP RIPIECSA Project: • Spread New Forecast Practice to Entire Sub-Region; • Improve High-Impact Weather forecast at sub-regional/national levels; • 6 More Forecasters Have Gone Through the Process Under the Project (11 F/Cs in total); • Evaluate Usefulness of Forecasts in Countries; • Enhance Countries’ Capacity to Access Products & • Install Synergie in Some countries.

  7. Step 4: FORECASTERS HANDBOOK • A Goal of the African & international community (AMMA, THORPEX-Africa…) to Improving Weather Forecasting in Africa; • Concerted Efforts already On-Going in the West African Sub-Regional and International Communities to realize Initiative (APAO Support); • Handbook project eventually for all Africa.

  8. ACMAD EFFORTS OUTSIDE AMMA PROGRAMME • Participation in the WMO Severe Weather Demonstration Project for Southeastern Africa • Nov. 2006-Oct 2007 ACTION 1

  9. SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTING DEMONSTRATION PROJECT Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) WMO project Nov. 2006 – Nov. 2007 • to improvee ability of National Meteorological Centres (NMCs) to forecast severe weather events, improve the lead time of alerting of these events and improve interaction of NMCs with the Disaster Management Civil Protection Authorities (DMCPA) before and during events • To archive Data for case studies (data available on request at ACMAD) Participation • National • Botswana , Madagascar, Mozambique, Tanzania , Zimbabwe • Regional • Pretoria, La Reunion, ACMAD • Global • ECMWF, UKMO, NOAA/NWS

  10. WASA/F Concept extended as SASA/F SASF for 02/12/2006 at 1800Z Moderate/heavy precip areas C - vortex CAB –Congo Air Boundary Area of cloud/light rain ITCZ

  11. ACTION 2 CONTINUED ON-THE-JOB TRAINING • Hands-on Practice on Data-Processing and Forecasting (WASAFSASAF Production) • Theory on satellite image and model output interpretation

  12. ACTION 3 • OPERATION PRODUCTION OF SEVERE WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR OPERATIONAL USE • INTERNATIONAL FEDERATION OF THE RED CROSS/RED CRESCENT

  13. Storm Track Forecast IFRC Climate Risk Bulletin Forecasting and Monitoring MCS Legend

  14. FLOOD RISK MAP (3-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATION) High Risk Moderate Risk Low Risk

  15. Water logging in parts of Niamey-heavy rain 19th August,2009 DEKADAL CLIMATE RISK BULLETINFlood / Drought Monitoring

  16. Thank You for Attention

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