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Crop Market Outlook

Crop Market Outlook. Hawkeye Farm Show Cedar Falls, Iowa Mar. 5, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB for 2010-13. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB for 2010-13. Corn Yields.

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Crop Market Outlook

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  1. Crop Market Outlook Hawkeye Farm Show Cedar Falls, Iowa Mar. 5, 2014 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB for 2010-13

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB for 2010-13

  4. Corn Yields Top: 2013 Yield Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

  5. Soybean Yields Top: 2013 Yield Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

  6. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  7. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  8. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

  9. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

  10. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

  11. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  12. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  13. Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  14. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  15. Corn Grind for Ethanol

  16. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

  17. Current Corn Futures 4.66 4.65 4.60 Source: CME Group, 3/4/2014

  18. Current Soybean Futures 13.04 11.47 10.89 Source: CME Group, 3/4/2014

  19. Corn Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

  20. Soybean Prices vs. Costs Per Bushel Cost calculated as Per Acre Cost from ISU Extension divided by Actual Yield per Acre Sources: USDA-NASS for Prices, Duffy for Costs

  21. 2013/14 Crop Prices

  22. 2014/15 Crop Margins

  23. Source: droughtmonitor.unl.edu

  24. 3-Month Temperature Outlook Source: NOAA-CPC

  25. 3-Month Precipitation Outlook Source: NOAA-CPC

  26. Thoughts for 2014 and Beyond • Supply/demand concerns • Demand rebounding? Yes, so far, so good • Acreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go? • Markets favoring soybeans in the short term and corn longer term

  27. World Corn Markets Source: USDA

  28. Arable Land

  29. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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