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AGEING POPULATION - Burden or Benefit?

abcd. AGEING POPULATION - Burden or Benefit?. Demographic Trends Adrian Gallop Edinburgh 21 January 2002. AGEING IN THE UNITED KINGDOM WHERE ARE WE NOW AND HOW DID WE GET HERE?. Ageing population. The main reasons for the ageing population structure of the UK population are:

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AGEING POPULATION - Burden or Benefit?

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  1. abcd AGEING POPULATION- Burden or Benefit? Demographic Trends Adrian Gallop Edinburgh 21 January 2002

  2. AGEING IN THE UNITED KINGDOMWHERE ARE WE NOW AND HOW DID WE GET HERE?

  3. Ageing population The main reasons for the ageing population structure of the UK population are: • Baby booms, followed by • Falling fertility rates • Falling mortality rates

  4. Very small cohorts at start of WWII Large cohorts born immediately after WWI Post WWII baby boom Small cohorts born during WWI 1960’s baby boom Lowest fertility rate • 2000-based national population projectionsUnited Kingdom 2000 skip

  5. Total fertility rate, United Kingdom, 1951–2000

  6. Average achieved family size by age and year of birth of women United Kingdom, 1940-1975

  7. Period and cohort measures * CFS for cohorts born 28 years earlier

  8. Projecting fertility * CFS for cohorts born 28 years earlier

  9. Expectation of life at birth according to death rates experienced in given years United Kingdom, 1911-1998

  10. Proportion of persons surviving to successive ages, according to death rates experienced or projected England and Wales, 1851-2031

  11. Effective annual rates of improvement in mortality between successive English Life Tables Males

  12. Effective annual rates of improvement in mortality between successive English Life Tables Females

  13. Changes in mortality 1980-95 • ASMRs for under 15s halved for M & F • Little reduction for males 15-44 (c10%) • Slowdown for females 15-44 (c20%) • Greater reduction for males aged 45-74 (c30%) than females (c20%) • Similar reductions for males and females aged 75 and over (c20%)

  14. Life expectancy at birth by social class – males (E&W)

  15. Life expectancy at age 65 by social class – males (E&W)

  16. AGEING IN THE UNITED KINGDOMWHERE ARE WE GOING? Population projections for the UK

  17. Expectation of life at birth, United Kingdom, 1981-2040

  18. Expectation of life at birth according to mortality rates assumed for selected years

  19. Projecting fertility * CFS for cohorts born 28 years earlier

  20. Projecting migrationTotal net migration, United Kingdom

  21. 2000-based population projections United Kingdom 2000

  22. 2000-based population projections United Kingdom 2005

  23. 2000-based population projections United Kingdom 2010

  24. 2000-based population projections United Kingdom 2015

  25. 2000-based population projections United Kingdom 2020

  26. 2000-based population projections United Kingdom 2025

  27. 2000-based population projections United Kingdom 2030

  28. 2000-based population projections United Kingdom 2035

  29. 2000-based population projections United Kingdom 2040

  30. 2000-based population projections United Kingdom 2045

  31. 2000-based population projections United Kingdom 2050

  32. 2000-based population projections United Kingdom 2055

  33. 2000-based population projections United Kingdom 2060

  34. 2000-based population projections United Kingdom 2065

  35. 2000-based population projections United Kingdom 2070

  36. Actual and projected population by broad age group, United Kingdom, 1900-2070

  37. Actual and projected age distribution, United Kingdom, 1981-2070

  38. Population under 16 and over pension age, United Kingdom, 1981-2025

  39. Actual and projected dependency ratios,United Kingdom, 1971-2051

  40. Actual and projected components of elderly dependency ratio United Kingdom, 1971-2051

  41. COMPARISON OF TRENDS IN UK TO THOSE IN OTHER COUNTRIES

  42. Expectation of life at birth for males, 1950-2010 Source: United Nations

  43. Expectation of life at birth for females, 1950-2010 Source: United Nations

  44. Expectation of life at age 60 EU countries • For males, UK lay 8th equal with 18.8 years • highest 20.3 years - Greece • lowest 17.8 years - Ireland • For females, UK lay 12th with 22.5 years • highest 25.1 years - France • lowest 21.5 years - Ireland

  45. Percentage increase in numbers aged 65 & over, 1990-2050 Source: United Nations

  46. Total period fertility rates in Europe, 1960-2010 Source: United Nations

  47. Number of pensioners per 1000 “workers”, 1970-2050 Source: United Nations

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