WEST MIDLANDS REGIONAL SPATIAL STRATEGY

1. WEST MIDLANDS REGIONAL SPATIAL STRATEGY STAKEHOLDERS’ MONITORING CONFERENCE 8th September 2008

2. Introduction Mark Middleton Policy Director West Midlands Regional Assembly 8th September 2008

3. Objectives of this morning • To assist delegates form a view as to whether the key aims of the RSS – Urban and Rural Renaissance – are being achieved • To give delegates a view of how the key policies in each area are progressing • To encourage discussion of monitoring outcomes within the Regional community • To enable discussion of implications (particularly for RSS Review, implementation and future monitoring) • To enable stakeholders to contribute to Policy Leads’ understanding of the data and findings 8th September 2008

4. Importance of this morning • To contribute to the two-way communication between those responsible for developing the Regional Spatial Strategy and the wider regional community; • In advance of the Examination in Public next Spring it is vital that we have a shared view of how the RSS is progressing across the region. Today’s event will be an important factor in developing that shared view. 8th September 2008

5. Monitoring Overview Amanda Turner Monitoring Policy Lead West Midlands Regional Assembly 8th September 2008

6. Introduction Purpose of today is to discuss monitoring findings of 2007 RSS AMR (06/07 monitoring year) Important to discuss issues particularly in the light of the forthcoming Phase 2 Public Examination A lot of good work going on in understanding the Regional position on progress towards RSS Need to focus back on the issues – take a step aside from discussions on SNR process 8th September 2008

7. Duties of the RPB (WMRA) Duty under the Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act (2004) to keep under review the RSS Specifically, to monitor the implementation of the RSS throughout the Region Prepare an Annual Monitoring Report covering the last 12 month period – submit end of Feb Need to look if policies are on track, if not reasons why and actions to be taken (Good Practice Guidance, 2005) 8th September 2008

8. 2007 Annual Monitoring Round Successful monitoring year- thanks to everyone involved A lot of hard work: LPA input (11 surveys), Worcestershire CC (residential land), Mott MacDonald (other surveys), Regional Partners (supplementary data), WMRO (urban and rural renaissance), RSS policy leads (analysis of data) AMR submitted on time by 28th February to CLG 8th September 2008

9. 2007 Annual Monitoring Report Sets out progress towards the RSS policies Based on the currently published RSS framework June 2004 (Jan 2008 not available at time) Covers: Communities for the Future (housing), Prosperity for All (employment, retail and offices), Environment and Transportation, Progress Towards Urban and Rural Renaissance. Change of format – hard copy summary report, main chapters and data annexes on CD 8th September 2008

10. 2007 Supplementary Reports Produced to provide more detail than main AMR • Housing Summary Report (2007) – updates the 2006 Report. Covers RSS and RHS issues including housing market, affordability etc. • Regional Employment Land Study – market trends, employment land development and supply. Detailed analysis and sub-regional focus • Greenbelt – developments within GB and greenbelt changes 8th September 2008

11. Future Issues on Monitoring World is changing in relation to the Sub-National Review of Economic Development and Regeneration Need to bring together RSS and RES monitoring Regional players and structures and processes may change Need to build on good practice already established Still a need to monitor and retain a robust evidence base – keep going for now 8th September 2008

12. Contextual Monitoring Overview – Progress towards Urban and Rural Renaissance Stephen Howarth West Midlands Regional Observatory 8th September 2008

13. Reminder of definitions Urban renaissance – developing the major urban areas in such a way that they can increasingly meet more of their own economic and social needs in order to counter the unsustainable outward movement of people and jobs Rural renaissance – supporting rural communities to achieve their economic and social potential whilst embracing the challenges of access and climate change 8th September 2008

14. Our approach • Based on DEFRA Urban/Rural Definitions • Urban combines Major Urban & Large Urban • Rural combines Rural-50 & Rural-80 • Key indicators selected based upon earlier contextual monitoring work • Comparing urban and rural and trends over time

15. Population and migration • Regional population has grown steadily since 2001 – now 5.4 million • Migration from urban to rural areas continues but the flow has slowed in recent years • Young adults tend to move in the other direction so growing gap in age profiles • Net migration out of the region to elsewhere in the UK but into the region from overseas

17. Progress towards urban renaissance Some signs of improvement but progress slow • Rate of out-migration slowing • Education performance improving faster than rural areas but skill levels overall show little change • Business start ups increasing but still behind rural areas • House prices have risen but affordability still better than in rural areas • Knowledge employment has increased but not as quickly as in rural areas and worklessness still high • In-commuters still earn more than local residents

18. Progress towards rural renaissance Some improvements but still problem areas • In-migration continues and population ageing faster than in urban areas • Increased employment in knowledge industries and growth in business start-ups • Increased ICT adoption – broadband up-take now higher than urban areas • Average salaries for local jobs are much lower than those of commuters • Housing affordability continued to worsen • Many key services are becoming less accessible in some areas

19. Communities for the Future Clive Lloyd Housing Monitoring Policy Lead West Midlands Regional Assembly 8th September 2008

20. Regional housing trajectory – based upon net housing completions Source: Regional Housing Land Availability Survey, 2007 8th September 2008

21. Housing trajectory for the Major Urban Areas – based upon net housing completions Source: Regional Housing Land Availability Survey, 2007

22. Housing trajectory for Other Areas* – based upon net housing completions *’Other Areas’ refers to areas outside the Major Urban Areas. Source: Regional Housing Land Availability Survey, 2007

23. Performance v RSS net assumptions Net completions v RSS net annual assumptions, West Midlands Region, 2006/7

24. Affordable housing completions Number of affordable housing completions Sources: Regional Housing Land Availability Surveys, 2005-7, and Housing Corporation, 2005-7

25. Use of previously developed land – based upon completions gross Proportion of housing by land type Source: Regional Housing Land Availability Surveys, 2001/2 and 2006/7

26. Land coming forward – based upon the number of commitments gross Committed land supply *This figure includes those more speculative sites entered in the ‘Any other commitments’ section. Source: Regional Housing Land Availability Surveys, 2005/6 and 2006/7 Total new supply Source: Regional Housing Land Availability Surveys, 2005/6 and 2006/7

27. Dwelling type and size – houses and flats Source: Regional Housing Land Availability Survey, 2006/7

28. Change in property prices – by dwelling type *Data is based on sales entered on the Land Registry database by 20 June 2008. Sales will continue to be added for a period of time, and this will affect the final mean house price figure. Source: Regional Housing Land Availability Survey, 2006/7

29. Estimated future completions – gross and net Housing completions, actual 2006/7 and estimated for 2007/8 and 2008/9 *The 2007/8 estimated figures use provisional results from the 2008 Residential Land Availability Survey. In 2007/8 there was an average fall of 7.2% in the number of gross completions in the West Midlands Region (excluding Walsall and Staffordshire for whom data was not available at the time of writing). There was an average fall of 4.6% in net completions. These figures have been applied to the 2007 completions figures for the West Midlands to derive estimates for the region. *The 2009 estimated figures assume a 30% fall in completions on the 2007 figures, in line with recent reports from house builders. Source: Regional Housing Land Availability Surveys, 2007-8

30. Prosperity for All David Carter / Martin Eade Employment Land / Centres Policy Leads West Midlands Regional Assembly 8th September 2008

31. Scope • Covers: • Employment Land • Centres • Some key trends • Headline issues relating to RSS policies 8th September 2008

32. Employment Land Development

33. Employment Land Development by Use Class

34. Employment Land Development in RZs

35. Employment Land Supply

36. Large Sites

37. Employment Land - Headlines - 1 • Employment land development averaged 233 ha since 2000, with 201 ha 2006/07 • MUAs the focus (35%) of employment land development since 2000 + completions outside the settlement hierarchy declining: legacy issues • Performance varies between the various urban RZs. Recently completions in the rural zone have been improving • HTCs, focus this far on bringing forward land, development rates should now increase

38. Employment Land - Headlines - 2 • Supply issues continue to require attention especially in some areas (esp the Black Country) – need for larger, more attractive locally significant sites that are readily available • Continuing threat posed by higher value alternative uses as employment land lost (c200 ha pa) • RIS – existing and emerging sites suggest few major supply problems, at least in the short to medium term • MIS – Wobaston Road • RLS – Existing supply is running out and future supply needs addressing with some urgency

39. Centres - Retail - Completions & Commitments

40. Centres - Offices - Completions & Commitments

41. Centres Headlines • There is a healthy retail pipeline – but retail development levels are currently at their lowest for some years – with no major schemes under construction. • The retail pipeline continues to show a strong preponderance towards in-centre development – and there have been no recent major out-of-centre completions. • The proportion of in/edge-of-centre office completions increased last year – but remained below 50%. • The office pipeline continues to be dominated by out-of-centre commitments – only Birmingham has a significant supply of in/edge-of-centre sites.

42. Quality of the Environment Maurice Barlow Quality of the Environment Policy Lead West Midlands Regional Assembly 8th September 2008

43. DERELICT LAND • continued reduction in area of derelict land • reclamation level 2nd highest since 2001 • majority of derelict land and reclamation in Shires • reclamation for green space concentrated in major urban areas 8th September 2008

44. ENERGY AND WATER • continued decline in renewable energy generating capacity • reversal in trend of reduction in numbers of permissions granted contrary to flood risk advice (05-06) • more recent flood risk figures show more positive longer term trend resumed (06-07) • insufficient data from water quality survey

45. MINERALS AND WASTE • continued reduction in sales of sand & gravel, fall in crushed rock sales • no new data for secondary/recycled aggregates • positive progress in municipal and household waste management • good progress in establishing mechanisms to help deliver additional waste management facilities

46. BUILT AND NATURAL HERITAGE • fall in number of buildings at risk, but still one of highest rates in England • improvement in quality of SSSIs stalled • declining trend in woodland grant scheme planting • latest Green Belt data shows fall in number of applications/permissions

47. KEY IMPLICATIONS • rate of reuse of brownfield land too low to deliver higher growth • need for step change in renewable energy generating capacity • significant need for new waste management capacity • watching brief in trend for flood risk permissions • need for stronger more integrated policy guidance in Phase 3

48. Transport and Accessibility Peter Davenport Transport and Accessibility Policy Lead West Midlands Regional Assembly 8th September 2008

49. T1 (Developing Accessibility and Mobility to Support the Spatial Strategy) • Locational policies for new development are largely ‘on track’ particularly with regard to MUAs. T2 (Reducing the Need to Travel) • Exceeded the target - Almost two-thirds (63%) of schools have travel plans - well above the national figure (56%). • The number of WTPs is constantly increasing T3 (Walking and Cycling) • There has been a reduction in mileage walked to 165 miles, which is the lowest value of any English region and is nearly one-fifth (18%) lower than the average for England. • Walking accounts for 10% of travel to work journeys both in England and the Region. 8th September 2008

50. T3 (Walking and Cycling) Continued… • Cycling accounts for 2% of travel to work journeys, compared to 3% for England. • Why is this the case in the West Midlands? T4 (Promoting Travel Awareness) • Same as T2. T5 (Public Transport) • Bus patronage has declined by 11.6% since 2001/02, at a greater rate than the national average for English regions outside London (2.5%). • Metro patronage has fallen between 2005/06 and 2006/07 from 5.2 million to 4.9 million. It is unlikely that the WMRSS target will be achieved. • Rail patronage continues to grow (23.8% from 2001/02) at a rate in excess of the national average (7.7%).