Conceptual thinking about the unknown. Uncertainty: expected value, sensitivity analysis, and the value of information. Review 1. Your problem is not as unique as you think it is You have more data than you think you have You need less data than you think you need
Uncertainty: expected value, sensitivity analysis, and the value of information
There are two extremes of subjective confidence:
E(NB) = SPi (Bi - Ci)
Decision analysis has two stages.
Total Population (round to 10K)
Fraction High Risk ?
Infection Rate ?
Mortality Rate ?
Value of Life ?
Time lost to Flu ?
Opportunity Cost of Time ?
Chance of Epidemic
First Year ?
Second Year ?
Total number of people vaccinated
Dose Price (Variable)
Adverse Reaction Rate ?
Herd Immunity Rate ?
Vaccine Effectiveness Rate?
Discount Rate ?What’s up for grabs?