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What Role for Nuclear?

What Role for Nuclear?. Alan McDonald International Atomic Energy Agency ICCF FORATOM Forum Brussels • 26 November 2003. Predictions.

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What Role for Nuclear?

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  1. What Role for Nuclear? Alan McDonald International Atomic Energy Agency ICCF FORATOM Forum Brussels • 26 November 2003

  2. Predictions • The energy produced by breaking down the atom is a very poor kind of thing. Anyone who expects a source of power from the transformations of these atoms is talking moonshine. Lord Ernest Rutherford, 1933. • It is not too much to expect that our children will enjoy in their homes [nuclear generated] electrical energy too cheap to meter. Levi Strauss, Chairman, US Atomic Energy Commission, 1954.

  3. Global Nuclear Capacity Developing Jap/ROK FSU/EE WE NA Under Construction Operating

  4. Medium-term Projections 573 501 423 401 391 386 360 GW(e)

  5. Medium-term Projections 11% 13% 15% 15% 16% 12% 16%

  6. Carbon Avoidance

  7. Annual Avoidance Projections

  8. Cumulative Avoidance Projections

  9. Conclusions (1/2) • Nuclear power’s future will be determined by economics. • Different national situations lead to different energy assessments.

  10. Conclusions (2/2) • New nuclear’s front-loaded cost structure is less attractive in deregulated markets. • Do not count on carbon constraints to make a near-term difference. • It is critical to assure nuclear power is treated fairly in sustainable development and climate change negotiations.

  11. IAEA …atoms for peace.

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