The South East Australia Climate Initiative ACRE workshop, April2, 2009 Brief description Summary of themes Issues Spatial problem (downscaling) Temporal problem (synthetic time series) Acknowledgements: SEACI colleagues, Wendy Craik, Bryson Bates, QCCCE colleagues. 14% of Australia.
Over 2 million peopleThe Murray-Darling Basin
1million sq. km
SEACI (Phase 1) 2006-2008
SEACI2 (Phase 2) July, 2009 - June, 2012
Further extension (2 years) subject to review
GH gases ?
Land cover change ?
Natural variability ?
Adapted from Timbal (2007)
1997–2006 rainfall and runoff
Percent difference (1997-2006 relative to 1895-2006)
Relating local-scaleweather & climate to large-scaleatmospheric variables(modelled or observed)
Still only ~ 10km
We need SEA
PDF for natural varib. and model greenhouse signal uncertainty
2100Temporal problem:Integration of historical climate data with projection information
2050 climate projection
PDF for natural varib.
Current (2008) climate and future climate can be estimated the same way: model signal plus natural variability
Climate envelope will be modified as time goes by based on model improvement and evaluation, and assimilation of the observed trend by some means (Penny Whetton)
Assume the climate at site A is projected to resemble the present-day climate at site B by 2100. A feasible synthetic weather series may be
Past to the present: site A as observed
2100: Site B as observed
Present to 2100: Weighted between A and B
(preserves correlation between variables)
Warmer and drier
Summary capture climate change signals
RAINFALL capture climate change signals
Hydrologic sensitivity to runoff
Climate change projections
2 – 2.5
2.5 – 3
Estimation of impact on runoff
Qt – Q
eP = median
Pt – P