Economic Impact of Animal Disease

1. Economic Impact of Animal Disease Dr. Paul H. Kohrs WSDA Assistant State Veterinarian WASEMA Conference September 26, 2012

2. Topics for Today Go for the numbers What contributes to the cost of disease Some common diseases of concern Additional thoughts on food supply

3. Agriculture’s Contribution to Washington’s Economy • Agricultural Production • One of the most diverse and productive growing regions in the world • 12% of state’s economy • 39,000 farms • 300 crops • $9.5 billion in production value • 82,000 people employed in crop and livestock production

4. Agriculture’s Contribution to Washington’s Economy • Foreign Exports • Deep-water ports and proximity to Asian markets • $13 billion in food and agricultural products exported through Washington ports in 2010 • 3rd largest in U.S. • Grain & Fruit #1 & #2 in export value • 1/3 of meat products processed leave the state

5. Agriculture’s Contribution to Washington’s Economy • Specialty Crops • Washington produces a significant portion to the national average • Production as a percent of national total

6. Economics 101 US • Livestock & Poultry Inventory • 90 million beef cattle • 10 million dairy cattle • 10 million sheep • 60 million hogs • 8 billion poultry • 20% of commodities are exported • 140 Billion in exports-860,000 jobs • If we get FMD - We Lose Our: • Export markets!! • Domestic markets & loss of consumer confidence • Valuable business infrastructure

7. Fact or Fiction 2/3rds of the world has FMD FMD is feared internationally because of high mortality FMD is easily diagnosed on clinical signs

8. Fact or Fiction If introduced into the US it would be quickly stamped out Direct costs in an outbreak (eradication and indemnities) would be greater than indirect cost (loss trade and consumer fears) FMD is zoonotic

9. FMD Estimates are that for each hour that it remains undetected it costs $10,000,000 Estimates from USDA indicate that a FMD outbreak would cost $30-60 billion 80 reported suicides from UK 2001 outbreak

10. Potential FMD Spread After a simulated terrorist attack at 5 locations: Day 21 17 22 2 10 7 8 9 11 20 16 14 15 12 18 19 13 1 23 4 3 5 6 30 40 States Infected: 30 38 39 35 37 15 19 33 27 23 5 12 Day 5 Disease First Detected Even if a national “Stop Movement” of all susceptible animals is ordered on Day 8, by the time the disease is eradicated the nation would still lose 23.6 million animals! Potential Impact:

11. ONE DAY (9/05) SALE TRACE IN TRACE OUT 2,232 head handled 211 sellers (208 WA, 7 OR, 1 ID) 25 out of state buyers (1 CA, 9 OR, 14 ID, 1 UT) Markets In State Sellers In State Buyers Out Of State Sellers Out Of State Buyers SALE SITE

12. ONE DAY (9/05) SALE TRACE OUT

13. ONE DAY (11/05) SALE TRACE OUT SALE SITE 1,993 head handled 158 sellers (135 WA, 23 ID) 115 buyers (WA, ID, CA, OR, MT, WY, IA)

14. So Is It a Big Deal? • Yes • 140 Billion in trade • 17% of our GDP • Loss of 860,000 agricultural jobs • Psychological impact of losses • Disposal of 24 million animals

16. Influenza 101 • RNA virus vs DNA • Single strand of genetic material (RNA) • “Double helix” strands of genetic material (DNA) • Avian Influenza (AI) • 16 different H’s; named H1 – H16 • 9 different N’s; named N1 – N9 • 144 combinations possible (e.g., Asian H5N1) • AI subtypes of concern – H5 or H7

17. Influenza 101 • Genetic Changes • Drift: minor mutations • Seasonal flu • May or may not affect the ability to cause disease • Shift: major changes • Jumping species • Re-assortment

18. Influenza 101 • Swine the “Mixing Vessel” • Multiple human and avian gene introductions • Since 1998, unsettled genome results in lots of replication / virus variances

19. Feb 2004 High Path AI detected in B.C. (H7N3) ~30 infected premises Less than ¼ mile from U.S. border Apr 2004 Joint USDA/WSDA surveillance teams assembled and dispatched to area WA AI Poultry Surveillance

20. Surveillance continued until the outbreak was controlled in Canada Concluded June 2004 ~10,500 premises contacted 650 of those had poultry 480 of the 650 allowed testing All tests negative Total cost of operation $765,000 WA AI Poultry Surveillance

21. HPAI INFECTED FLOCK CANADA (British Columbia) UNITED STATES (Whatcom County, WA)

22. British Columbia Poultry AI Costs • Direct costs 300 million • Depopulation • Disposal • Indemnity • C&D • Additional costs • Ripple effect estimated at 3X direct costs

23. Pork Industry Influenza Costs • 2009 - H1N1 “Swine flu” estimated to cost • $1.1 billion dollars in lost revenue (2009) • Previous years revenue was already down from recession for a total 2 year loss of $5 billion dollars • No scientific reason only public perception and media “labeling” • 2012 - H3N2 costs not yet tallied • Again public perception is key to maintaining marketability of pork products • Better messaging lessened overall impact

24. Avian Influenza • B.C. outbreak in 2004 • 300 million in control cost • Most officials peg the cost to the economy at 3X that (ripple effect) • Some producers out of the business

25. Bovine Tuberculosis (TB) • TB is a bacterial disease of cattle that can infect humans, other domestic animals and some wildlife • There are three ways humans can get TB: • Breathing air after an infected animal coughs or sneezes very close by • Drinking unpasteurized milk from an infected cow or eating raw or undercooked meat from an infected animal • Handling infected meat in the dressing and processing of animal carcasses • Eradication program in place since 1917 • TB has reemerged since 1998 in U.S.

26. TB Economics • IF we would discover an infected TB herd • Huge amounts of time and $$$ spent in testing of infected herd and determining status of “trace-ins” for the source of the infection • “Trace-outs’ to determine where it might have been spread to • Must prove to USDA that we can accomplish the above or we would lose our “free” status

27. TB Economics • The cost of testing and movement restrictions • Loss of “Free” Status for TB or Brucellosis cost • 10 cents per pound ($50 on 500-pound calf) • $8 to $10 per head (each time cattle are tested) • $5 to $55 million (in added costs to state) • $6.4 million (added producer testing costs) • Indemnity value may be lower than animal is worth • Community loss of income for • Community based small farms and markets • Community business and their revenue • Community confidence in uncertain future

28. Washington TB Events • WA has held TB free-status since 1988 • Close calls: • Eastern Washington feedlot, May 2008 • Two Canadian origin cattle - No intermingling with native cattle • Yakima, 2008 • Male from Mexico became ill while visiting-diagnosed with TB • Raw dairy products from Mexico, eventually recovered • No family members or animals infected • Sunnyside, Feb 2012 • 2009, California dairy herd (975 cows) relocates to Washington • 2012, Notified entire herd was potentially exposed to TB • Herd now is 1200 head - Large-scale tracing and testing

29. Sunnyside TB Event • Herd Test Results • 33 responders • All tests were negative • All traces confirmed no cattle comingled with resident cattle

30. CFT Response

31. Washington Test Rates

32. TB Economics • Depopulation • Simply not feasible anymore • State and federal resources shrinking • No more government “deep” pockets • $5-55 million dollars of government money for indemnity • USDA has changed their approach – states and producers will now bear more of the cost • Depopulation is a less likely option

34. Q Fever • Q fever is a rare bacterial infection caused by Coxiella burnetii • Q fever spills over to people, from infected animals/ environment, through inhalation • Q fever is widespread in the environment • CDC found Q fever bacteria in environmental samples from post offices, stores, schools, farms, dairies and fairgrounds • Some areas had up to 50% positive samples

35. Q Fever • Q fever bacteria can cause a sudden onset of: • High fever • Headache and flu-like symptoms that usually last for at least a week • Rarely (1-5%) of cases develop serious cardiac problems • Probably under reported due to similarities of other health related and seasonal symptoms

36. Q fever in Washington, April 2011 • Discovered in North Central Washington • Producer wanted to know the source of goat miscarrages • Q fever diagnosed by local Vet, confirmed by WSU • Producer assisted with tracing herd sales in WA and MT • Goats were tested from 13 farms in 7 counties: • Adams, Chelan, Clark, Franklin, Grant, Pend Oreille & Thurston • 850 samples collected by WSDA, USDA and CDC • 61 human samples from producers & agriculture personnel

37. Washington Q fever Results • Human • 11 / 61 (18%) had positive serum samples • 7 / 11 (64%) people were sick • Goats • Whole blood samples were PCR negative • Only 8% of 326 goats were ELISA positive • Only 10% of 108 fecal swabs (males) were PCR positive • 31% of 312 vaginal swabs were PCR positive • All 19 positive milk samples were from one non-milk producing farm • ~ $50,000 - nearly bankrupted producer due to lost sales

39. Additional Topics Animal Welfare How much will breakfast at McDonald’s cost when gestation stalls are eliminated and the eggs are all “free range”? UK has gone to non-cage eggs and there are severe egg shortages – some locations not available at all Is food produced in these systems really better for us? Should others be allowed to make our food choices for us by simple economics?

40. Additional Topics Raw Milk • Growing movement promotes advantages of going “raw” • CDC study states that raw milk saw a significant increase in dairy related food illnesses • 75% (55/73)of the non pasteurized product outbreaks occurred states where raw milk was legal • Is the increased risk worth the benefits?

41. Additional Topics Antibiotics • Antibiotic usage the alleged relationship of antibiotic resistance to judicious animal use • Eliminate “growth promoting” use of antibiotics • Essentially would put antibiotics under veterinary script→↑ costs for food • Other sources of resistance? • How much will food costs increase if antibiotic use disappear?

42. The End