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Valence politics

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Valence politics

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    1. ‘Valence’ politics A.k.a. ‘performance’ or ‘delivery’ politics Agreement about ends Competition about who’s best to achieve them Key issues: economy, crime, education, NHS Key variables: Past records Perceptions of competence Party image Leaders

    2. Context I – ideological convergence

    3. Context II: volatility between elections

    4. Context III: ‘disloyalty’ to party

    5. Context IV – attributions of responsibility

    6. Overall performance evaluations

    7. ‘Most important issue’

    8. Specific issue evaluations

    9. Economy and vote

    10. Leader evaluations

    11. Campaign evaluations

    12. Factors significantly predicting choice

    13. Factors significant for neither vote Gender Newspaper readership Social class (objective or subjective) Religion National identity Left-right & libertarian-authoritarian issue stances Preferred local taxation Attitudes to Trident Evaluations of Labour performance at Westminster Party best able to handle crime or public services Evaluations of McConnell and Salmond

    14. So why did the SNP win? Enough voters unimpressed with Labour Holyrood performance SNP persuaded enough voters it would do better (and not far behind on the economy) Party seen as gradualist > fundamentalist (But nowhere else for hardcore pro-independence voters to go) Campaigned positively and trusted to govern in Scotland’s interests Labour’s campaign negative, maybe too Westminster-flavoured

    15. And why was it so close? More Labour party identifiers SNP still repels hardcore anti-independence Plenty positively evaluated Labour’s Holyrood performance And plenty doubted whether SNP would do better (especially on the economy) Labour not severely punished for Negative evaluations of Westminster govt Council tax Leadership disadvantage

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