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The European Union’s involvement in protracted conflicts in the post-Soviet space

The European Union’s involvement in protracted conflicts in the post-Soviet space. Marco Siddi EXACT seminar, FIIA, 7 September 2011. Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011. Protracted conflicts in the EU’s neighbourhood. Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA, 7 September 2011.

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The European Union’s involvement in protracted conflicts in the post-Soviet space

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  1. The European Union’s involvement in protracted conflicts in the post-Soviet space Marco Siddi EXACT seminar, FIIA, 7 September 2011 Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

  2. Protracted conflicts in the EU’s neighbourhood Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA, 7 September 2011

  3. 4 protracted conflicts • Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh, Transnistria • De facto states: sovereignty, no international recognition • ‘Parent states’ and ‘patron states’ • Start: collapse of the Soviet Union (1988-1992) • Ethnic conflicts, except Transnistria • Current state Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

  4. Abkhazia and South Ossetia Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

  5. Nagorno-Karabakh Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

  6. Transnistria Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

  7. Geopolitical context • Russia: post-Soviet space/limit Western influence control of Black Sea security dilemma in the Caucasus • EU: energy security stability and security in the neighbourhood Relevance of Kosovo precedent Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

  8. EU’s involvement • 1998-9: bilateral PCAs • 2003-5: EUSRs for South Caucasus and Moldova • 2004-6: ENP and bilateral Action Plans • Civilian missions: EUBAM Moldova (2005), EUMM Georgia (2008) • Mediation in August 2008 crisis, co-chair of Geneva talks Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

  9. The EU in Georgia Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

  10. The EU in Moldova Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

  11. EU’s involvement: problems • Low profile, no coherent strategy (i.e. vis-à-vis Armenia and Azerbaijan) • ENP review: no news • Current restructuring: EUSRs • No military/economic access to de facto states • Out of OSCE Minsk Group on N-K, only observer in 5+2 format on Transnistria Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

  12. Conclusion • The EU plays a marginal role • EU « reactive » rather than « proactive » (i.e. no peace plan proposal) • Shortcomings of inflexible non-recognition policy • Actors: EU or member states? • Lack of a coherent strategy – no change in the foreseeable future Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

  13. Thanks very much for your attention! Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011

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