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SREF Applications at AWC

SREF Applications at AWC. Dr. Steverino Silberberg Aviation Weather Center October 31, 2006 NCEP Ensemble Users Workshop. AWC-EMC Collaboration. Aviation-specific SREF guidance Binbin Zhou, Jun Du, Jeff McQueen probabilistic guidance for aviation weather forecasts experimental.

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SREF Applications at AWC

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  1. SREF Applications at AWC Dr. Steverino Silberberg Aviation Weather Center October 31, 2006 NCEP Ensemble Users Workshop

  2. AWC-EMC Collaboration • Aviation-specific SREF guidance • Binbin Zhou, Jun Du, Jeff McQueen • probabilistic guidance for aviation weather forecasts • experimental

  3. Aviation SREF Methodology • Generate aviation-related diagnostics & variables in common post (ETA, WRF, RSM) • Produce ensemble products in SREF post • Graphics on Aviation-SREF website

  4. Aviation SREF Algorithms • AWC-developed • Externally-developed • RUC-based deterministic guidance: e.g. icing (CIP, FIP), turb (GTG), etc. • AWC-EMC collaboration during assimilation of algorithms into SREF operations

  5. Aviation SREF Feedback • Reduce/access/calibrate uncertainty • Reduce/represent model error • Provide distribution characteristics, etc.

  6. Aviation SREF Feedback • New products • Algorithm enhancements, changes • One-hour output F00-F24 • Add global ensemble • Add to SREF ops on CCS & GEMPAK data flow

  7. Aviation SREF Feedback • Application to AWC production & products • FAA requires deterministic aviation forecast products – except for probabilistic collaborative convective forecast product (CCFP)

  8. Aviation SREF Verification/Validation • Is truth out there? • If a tree falls in a forest … • PIREPS  difficult to use • NCEP FVS works for regular weather not for aviation weather • low level wind shear has been verified in FVS • adapt FVS to aviation • Collaborate with RTVS for aviation verification/validation

  9. SREF Aviation Product List

  10. SREF Aviation Product List

  11. SREF Aviation Product List

  12. SREF Aviation Product List

  13. Summary • AWC-EMC collaboration • Robust aviation-specific SREF guidance • Verification/validation work difficult, required • NAWIPS SREF tools developed by SIB • WebNAWIPS path to AWC operations • Add aviation-specific SREF guidance to SREF ops on CCS & GEMPAK data flow  NAWIPS • Collaboration with NCEP centers • NCO & SIB • Convective fields (SPC’s David Bright)

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