Global Warming & Climate Change: thoughts of a Quaker Scientist

1. Global Warming & Climate Change: thoughts of a Quaker Scientist [Do we panic, are we doomed? What can we do, what should we do?] (West Midlands Chemistry Teachers Centre, 6.11.18) Professor Richard Tuckett (Chemistry, University of Birmingham)  Is the correlation between CO2 concentration and Tearth ‘proven’? Not yet, but as good as ……  What can we do: individually, nationally, internationally? Where do Morality and Religion come into this complex issue?

2. Increasing levels of CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere over the last 60 years; a relentless increase.The small oscillations every six months are caused by seasonal changes due to photosynthetic activity of vegetation which consumes CO2. The oscillations reduce when data are recorded in regions with smaller amounts of vegetation, e.g.Antarctica.

3. Does red correlate with blue, or vice-versa?

4. The average temperature of the earth (in blue) and the concentration level of CO2 in the earth's atmosphere (in red) during the ‘recent’ history of the last 130 years. (Stofthttp://zfacts.com/p/226.html) We have already risen c. 1.8 F (1.0 °C) since the base level (start of the Industrial Revolution (c. 1850 AD)). IPCC [South Korea (three weeks ago)] says we must aim for no more than 2.7 F (or 1.5 oC) by end of this century. Experts now say that we are on target for 5.4 F (c. 3° C), and the runaway greenhouse effect will start.

5. LudovicoEinaudi + Greenpeace ‘Elegy for the Arctic’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DLnhdnSUVs

6. The only universal belief : ‘there is that of God in everyone’ ......... Six testimonies of Quakerism: arise out of an inner conviction that your life and your (non-) religious beliefs are two sides of the same coin. Social Justice * Truth and Integrity {Nothing unique about the Equality * Quakers, or even a Christian- Simplicity based religion, and their Peace and non-violence views on this world problem} Earth and the environment * Meetings for Worship : Silence, ministry when somebody feels ‘called’. No creed, no music, no dress code, no sacraments, no ‘leaders’, no priest. How does this apply to Climate Change?The testimonies of Social Justice, Equality and the Environment are hugely relevant. But we cannot / must not turn back the clock on ‘science’ and ‘technology’.

7. David MacKay : Sustainable Energy – without the hot air (2009) UIT Cambridge (free from the internet, ISBN: 978-0-9544529-3-3) Carbon dioxide we can emit per person per year if the increase in the Earth’s temperature is limited to 2 oCby the year 2100 [The reductions are even more dramatic for a 1.5 oC rise (IPCC, Oct 2018)] Population / billion (2018) / T (2100) / T Planet Earth 7.3 6 1.5 India 1.3 1 1.5 China1.4 6 1.5 UK 0.06 14 1.5 EU average 0.5 15 1.5 USA average 0.32 23 1.5 Units are metric tonnes (T), where 1 T equals 1000 kg

8. MacKay again. Now different units of kWh energy usage per person per day. UK situation. In 2009, the average person used 125of these units. The Climate Act 2008 says we have to reduce this to c. 15by AD 2100; perhaps 10 now. He suggested : Approx saving / kWh per day What we as individuals can do Turn down thermostats and wear more clothes 20 (or 16%) Modify our means of short-distance transport 20 (or 16%) Become vegetarian 10 (or 8%) Change all lights to LEDs4 (or 5%) Keep old gadgets such as computers 4 (or 5%) Stop flying .......... 35 (or 28%) What we as individuals have less control over Avoid packaging and buying clutter 20 (or 16%) OR

9. What are we going to do? This is everyone’sproblem (despite the UK only contributing 2% of global emissions, but from 1% of world population) How we make energy is important. But perhaps we should concentrate more on the ‘demand’, rather than the ‘supply’ of carbon orenergy.

10. Listen to this clip, now online in a paper in ActaNeurochirurgica : My ‘normal’ voiceWMCTC talk January 2015, before my cycling accident ActaNeurochir_VoiceBefore.mp3 ReferenceDOI: 10.1007/s00701-018-3702-x Read and listen all about it. Be so grateful that we have a ‘free’ NHS in this country. Moral of all this? Accidents happen in life; this was a freak one-in-a-million situation But PLEASE wear a HELMET if you cycle anywhere I would not be here if I had not been wearing my trusty helmet.

11. Six reasons for cautious optimism in the UK : Realisation that ‘guilt’ about the past will get us nowhere Realisation that carbon trading is immoral, and doomed to fail The climate sceptics have disappeared from the UK media Science and politics can work together: the stratospheric ozone problem, despite China, will be ‘solved’ by c. 2050-2100 Cost of green energy, especially solar and wind, is falling very fast. Perhaps tidal energy will follow?  Slow realisation that nuclear and fracking are not the answers New policies cannot apply to the young, old, disabled or infirm. But c. 67% of the UK population do not fall into these categories.

12. Concentrate first on us in the UK. Break problem down ……. • What would be easy to implement? (Individual responsibility) • Reduce the minimum working temperature from c. 18 oC to 16 oC • Wear more clothes • Abolish Sunday trading •  Price UK domestic air travel out of the market •  with huge expansion of UK train travel and safe cycling routes • Provide free double glazing and roof insulation to all domestic houses •  Make every child attend their local school; abolish the ‘school run’

13. What would be moderately difficult to implement? (Govt responsibility) But still possible if we are serious Carbon tax via credit cards : ‘the polluter pays’ (Canada may be doing this) Complete re-think on food policy : what we eat, where it comes from; meat Complete re-think on carbon trading throughout the world : just starting …… What would be incredibly difficult to implement? (UN (?) responsibility) Would any UK Government stay in power a month if even suggested? Population policy: limit access to Welfare State for ‘large’ families But what about World Population? Is it important? 3.3 billion in 1964, 7.3 billion in 2014, c. 11.0 billion in 2100 Two counter-arguments on this contentious issue ..... Take-home message: Science can help, it always does!

14. Possibilities for science in next 100 years Solar-powered air travel Transport solar energy from Sahara Desert to high population areas Trap CO2 and CH4 either underground or in space BUT This issue may affect every single person on this Planet. We may see mass migration occurring from the low-lying Southern Hemisphere to the higher-lying Northern Hemisphere on a scale never seen before. What have I done? Modified travel, become vegetarian, but never preached Two papers out now from Elsevier on ScienceDirect Greenhouse Gases DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-12-409547-2.14031-4 (Paper copy in 3rd edition of Encyclopaedia Anaytical Science, Feb 2019) Global Warming: what should we do? DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-12-409548-9.11355-7