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Wired For War: The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st Century

Wired For War: The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st Century . COMP3851: Computers and Society Adam Skillen 03-Dec-09. P. W. Singer. Senior Fellow and Director of the 21st Century Defense Initiative at the Brookings Institution

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Wired For War: The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st Century

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  1. Wired For War:The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st Century COMP3851: Computers and Society Adam Skillen 03-Dec-09

  2. P. W. Singer • Senior Fellow and Director of the 21st Century Defense Initiative at the Brookings Institution • Has been quoted in every major U.S. newspaper and news magazine • Delivered talks at venues ranging from the U.S. Congress and the Pentagon to over 40 universities around the world. • Books: • Corporate Warriors • Children at War • Wired For War

  3. Brief History of Robotics • The drive to create artificial organisms and thinking machines dates back thousands of years: • 1000 BCE Antikythera Computer: calculates position of Sun, Moon, Planets. First analogue computer. • 350 BCE Archytas of Tarentum: steam powered pigeon. • 1745 CE Vaucanson’s Duck: artificial duck able to digest food. Turned out to be a fraud, however Vaucanson went on the create an automated loom which made use of punched cards.

  4. Early Robots

  5. History of Robotics (Con’t) • 1822 CE Babbage designs first programmable computer. • 1898 CE Tesla demos a remote controlled motorboat. • WWI • Electric Dog – followed lantern light • Land Torpedo – remote controlled armoured tractor • Kettering Bug – remote controlled plane • German FL-7 – uninhabited motorboats

  6. History of Robotics (Con’t) • 1920 CE – Norden bombsight • WWII • German Goliath – explosive drone. • OQ2 aerial training drones. • Colossus – 1 ton programmable computer to break Enigma code. • 1956 CE – Unimation becomes first robotics company. • 1962 CE • Unmanned recon drone “FireFly” performs 3435 missions in Vietnam • First industrial robot “Unimate” created for GE

  7. History of Robotics (Con’t) • 1982 CE – Israel uses UAVs to strike Bekka Valley. • 1995 CE • GPS added to drones • Video game industry explodes • 2000 CE – Senate armed services committee ruled that by 2010 1/3 of aircraft, and by 2015 1/3 of land vehicles must be uninhabited. • 2003 - 2008 number of uninhabited vehicles in Iraq rose from zero to 12,000. • There are now more UAVs than piloted aircraft

  8. Definition of a Robot • Artificial organism built on “sense-think-act” principle. • Does not depend on level of autonomy. • Three main components: • Sensors: Monitor environment. • Processors and AI: Decide how to respond. • Effectors: Act upon environment. • Term “robot” first used by Czech playwright KarelČapek in 1921”Rossum’s Universal Robots.”

  9. Sensors • Used to observe surrounding environment and build a perception. • Cameras and visible optics • Infra-Red and non-visible light. • LADAR • Synthetic Aperture Radar • Millimetre wave • More data collected requires longer to process.

  10. Effectors • Used to manipulate environment. • Locomotion • Wheels, tracks, legs, propellers, etc. • Manipulators • Touch, grip, pick up • Non-Lethal Weapons • LRAD • ADS

  11. Processors and AI • Chose appropriate actions to achieve a task based on programming and sensory data. • 80% of AI research is funded by US Military ($21Billion/yr Industry). • Computing power follows exponential trend. • GT Max flies itself, learns from mistakes. • Creativity Machine: makes new ideas based on old ones.

  12. Why military robots? • Inspiration for early roboticists was often science fiction. War plays a large role in a lot of popular Sci. Fi. • More recent generation often find inspiration in video games. • Cost of uninhabited military vehicles is far less: • Cost of one F-22 fighter is 85 times greater than one Predator. • DARPA, and other military agencies fund projects in early stages under the assumption that they will one day benefit the military. • US defense budget rose 74% to $515 Billion from 2002 to 2008 not including operation cost of Iraq or Afghanistan. • 2007 Senate Armed Services Committee requires that the Pentagon prove that any new manned project cannot be achieved by a robot.

  13. Why military robots? • Can prevent the loss of human lives. • Faster response times than humans, can stay effective for longer than humans. • Human pilots will remain effective for 10 - 12 hrs, the planes they fly can remain airborne for at least 20 hrs. • Not subject to fear, fatigue, excitement, anger, hunger, illness/infection, etc. • Does not forget or disobey orders. • Not subject to limitations of human body. • E.g., g-force, temperature, breathing

  14. Roles of a Military Robot • Bomb / IED detection and defusing. • Less at stake for a robot to engage a bomb. • Sniper and mortar early warning systems. • Reconnaissance and spying. • Stay in air much longer than humans. • Medical evacuation and life support operations. • Transporting goods through dangerous areas. • Operating in “Dirty” zones (chemical / biological weapons, irradiated areas.)

  15. User Interface • Depends on level of autonomy. • Video game companies designed equipment and provided training. • Developing technologies: • Gestural systems • Haptics – sense of touch • EEG – intercept brain waves.

  16. Current Warbots

  17. Current Warbots

  18. Network Centric Warfare • Military doctrine based on the idea that instant access to information and communication will achieve superiority. • Similar to Wall Mart dominating market since they have global knowledge of market and can collude instantly. • 1991 Iraq War • 540,000 troops • 100 Mbps connection • 7% of bombs were precision guided • 2003 Iraq War • 125,000 troops • 4200 Mbps connection • 70% of bombs were precision guided

  19. Ethical Concerns Some believe robots should only be used for non combat roles. Others feel robots should not carry lethal weapons. Others believe robots should engage weapon systems but not combatants. Should robots engage an enemy that fires on friendly troops.

  20. The law of Exponential Trends • Technological advances follow an exponential growth trend. • E.g., Human Genome Project • E.g., 1908 – 239 Model T Fords sold, over 1 million sold in 1918 • Given level of autonomy possible today is Strong AI an inevitability?

  21. The Singularity • Defined as a paradigm shift. • E.g., printing press • The fear is that if humans create an entity more intelligent than itself, then it may think and learn in ways that we cannot understand. • This intelligence can then create more advanced entities, and humans are left behind unable to understand any further advances.

  22. The Singularity and Robotic Revolt Doesn’t necessarily spell disaster for humans although we would be left in the dust of new advanced civilization. If Cybernetic research advances at the same pace as robotics and AI then we may have nothing to fear. If robots are programmed with something along the lines of Asimov’s 3 laws, we wouldn’t have to fear a violent revolution.

  23. Asimov’s Three Laws • Isaac Asimov’s Three Laws of Robotics: • A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm. • A robot must obey any orders given to it by human beings, except where such orders would conflict with the First Law. • A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.

  24. Asimov’s Three Laws • Laws are easily understood by humans, but not easily translated into protocols for a machine to follow. • Laws can be subverted: Asimov’s story of the Solarians – humans defined to be anyone with a Solarian accent. • Laws are already being ignored: • 1. Robots are armed and expected to fight. • 2. Robots not expected to take orders from any human. • 3. Robots are expected to put themselves in danger.

  25. Keeping Humans in the Loop The feedback loop refers to a robot providing an assessment, and waiting for a human to decide the next move. Once robots start to engage other robots in war there is no room left for humans in the loop. Assuming we keep humans in the loop what happens when the connection to the controller is severed. The Norden bombsight started removing humans from the loop, now the computer opens the bay doors and drops bombs by itself.

  26. Trusting computer intel. • Iran Air Flight 655 shot down in 1988 by US vessel when it was misidentified by a defense computer as a fighter jet. • Aegis combat system provided humans with the results of its findings. • Humans were in the loop and took action based on computer recommendation despite conflicting reports by other instruments.

  27. Hacking / Hijacking Robots • 95% of military communications are over commercial lines. • GPS jamming devices are available for purchase. • EMI/RFI can distort signals. • Many commercial components are not properly shielded.

  28. Conclusion Number of service and industrial robots grows exponentially. US Military is starting a bottom-up robotic doctrine: Buy robots, arm them, then find a use for them. May have serious implications for the nature of international relations and human society itself.

  29. Questions?

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