Three things i think i know about the land use transportation connection
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Three Things (I think I know) about the Land Use / Transportation Connection. Jon D. Fricker 21 June 2007. “Urban Sprawl” Euclidean zoning Gasoline prices. Transportation and Land Use Issues. What the travel model says:.

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Three things i think i know about the land use transportation connection

Three Things (I think I know) about the Land Use / Transportation Connection

Jon D. Fricker

21 June 2007


Transportation and land use issues

“Urban Sprawl”

Euclidean zoning

Gasoline prices

Transportation and Land Use Issues

3 Things ... LU/Tp


What the travel model says
What the travel model says:

1. Changing Land Use patterns will affect the amount of travel (vehicle-miles traveled) – at least a little.

3 Things ... LU/Tp


What economic analysis says

2. A neighborhood can support only so much retail activity.

What economic analysis says:

3 Things ... LU/Tp


What people say
What people say:

3. A New Urbanist neighborhood design is not for everyone.

3 Things ... LU/Tp


1 changing lu patterns

Move non-residential LUs into one neighborhood.

LUs that fit travel behavior, rather than the opposite

Provide LUs that satisfy the most common trip making purposes.

1. Changing LU patterns

3 Things ... LU/Tp


1 reverse engineered n hood
1. Reverse Engineered N’hood

A. LU Categories by trip frequency:

>1 trip/week, >1 trip/month, <1 trip/month:

  • Grocery, Gas Station, School, et al.

    B. Nr of each LU/100 HHs:

  • Trip rates per 100 HH (NPTS and ITE) for each LU

  • Average size of each LU

    C. Scale up to 1 sq mi

3 Things ... LU/Tp


1 ren example calc 1
1. REN example calc (1)

  • 901.58 trips/week/1000 sq. ft. GFA in supermarket

  • 1.327 trips/week/HH to supermarket

  • Store area = (1.327/901.58)* 1000 *100 = 147 sq. ft./100 HHs

  • Avg supermarket size 34K sq ft  0.004 supermarkets per 100 HH

  • Repeat for all other “frequent” LUs

3 Things ... LU/Tp


1 ren example calc 2
1. REN example calc (2)

  • Repeat for all other “frequent” LUs total land area needed to serve 100 HHs

  • Assumed HHs/acre  land needed

  • Scale up to fill one square mile  “attractions” in REN

3 Things ... LU/Tp


1 ren travel model

Let residents work and shop anywhere.

TAZ size  one city block

Subarea analysis

VMT or Trip Length

1. REN travel model

3 Things ... LU/Tp


1 changes in travel
1. Changes in Travel

3 Things ... LU/Tp


1 lessons
1. Lessons

  • Introducing non-residential LUs gives residents a choice of destinations that are closer.

  • The resulting reductions in trip lengths are noticeable, but not dramatic, at the neighborhood level.

  • The trip length reductions are barely noticeable at the system level.

3 Things ... LU/Tp


2 neighborhood businesses
2. Neighborhood businesses

  • How many retail establishments can a New Urbanist neighborhood support?

3 Things ... LU/Tp


2 neighborhood businesses1

Shift analysis from trips and GFA to $/HH and $/LU type

Nhood area one sq mi

5(?) HHs/sq mi

Do “Market Analysis” (next two slides)

2. Neighborhood businesses

3 Things ... LU/Tp


2 consumer expenditure based market analysis
2. Consumer Expenditure-Based Market Analysis

An average household spends $3000 a year on grocery-store related items.

  • An average grocery store has sales of $600,000 a year.

  • Then, the number of grocery stores that can be supported by 100 HHs = $3000 * 100 / ($ 600,000) = 0.5 grocery stores

3 Things ... LU/Tp


2 household based market analysis
2. Household-Based Market Analysis

  • There are 1000 banks in a state with a population of 100,000 (i.e., 0.01 banks per person).

  • The average income at the state level is $12,000 a year.

  • The average income at the county level is $10,000 a year.

  • Then, the number of banks that can be supported by 100 HHs = 0.01 * 100 * ($10,000/ $12,000) = 0.83 banks

3 Things ... LU/Tp


2 lessons
2. Lessons

At “normal” urban densities for single-family dwellings (4-6 HH/acre), a one-square-mile neighborhood cannot support enough stores to cover even one edge.

  • Density must be increased dramatically, probably by high-rise apartment buildings, or

  • The “neighborhood” stores must rely on customers from other neighborhoods.

3 Things ... LU/Tp


3 preference surveys
3. Preference Surveys

  • Two-part survey at a monthly meeting of a neighborhood association.

    (1) Rate the desirability of twenty-four types of non-residential land uses if they were located within walking distance of your residence.

    (2) Three hypothetical New Urbanist-like neighborhood revitalization case studies, differing by location and scale, were presented.

3 Things ... LU/Tp


3 lu preferences 1
3. LU Preferences (1)

  • Churches were most preferred, while liquor stores were ranked lowest. (figure next page)

  • Land uses visited frequently (e.g. grocery store or restaurant) rated higher than less-frequented ‘benign’ LUs, such as an insurance sales office.

  • A positive relationship between the frequency of trips taken and the desirability of a particular land use within a neighborhood.

3 Things ... LU/Tp


3 lu preferences 2
3. LU preferences (2)

3 Things ... LU/Tp


3 new urbanist cases
3. New Urbanist Cases

3 Things ... LU/Tp


3 residents opinions

Opposed proposed developments in center of neighborhood -- would increase traffic.

Development on perimeter acceptable, but few residents would not walk/bicycle to the proposed developments, despite their proximity.

3. Residents’ Opinions

  • People would still go to more distant stores for longer hours, lower prices, greater variety.

3 Things ... LU/Tp


In other words

Not this: would increase traffic.

But this:

In other words, …

3 Things ... LU/Tp


Review of results
Review of Results would increase traffic.

  • Land use changes can help reduce VMT, but this is a long-term solution.

  • High densities needed to support “frequent” LUs, but other LUs need a larger market shed.

  • A minority like New Urbanist design now, but this market niche needs to be nurtured.

3 Things ... LU/Tp


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