Study on the economic effects of the 2003 heat wave on transport
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Study on the economic effects of the 2003 heat wave on transport. Alistair Hunt Metroeconomica & University of Bath. Structure of talk. Context of study Role of historical analogues in climate change impacts research Impacts and costs of Summer 2003 on roads in UK Lessons for the future.

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Study on the economic effects of the 2003 heat wave on transport

Study on the economic effects of the 2003 heat wave on transport

Alistair Hunt

Metroeconomica

& University of Bath


Structure of talk
Structure of talk transport

  • Context of study

  • Role of historical analogues in climate change impacts research

  • Impacts and costs of Summer 2003 on roads in UK

  • Lessons for the future


Context of study
Context of study transport

  • Initially for UKCIP – Costing case study of 2003 Summer for Cambridgeshire roads – with Chris Capps (Cambs. County Council)

  • Defra wanted UK total costs of Summer 2003  expanded geographical (and impact) coverage

  • 10 August 2003, record temp - Faversham (Kent) reporting the highest at 38.5 °C.

  • Fourth warmest summer period on record


Daily maximum temperature probability of exceedance
Daily maximum temperature: probability of exceedance transport

Central England summer temperature

Baseline (1961-90)

31oC has 1% chance [I day per summer]

2080s, medium-high emissions

31oC has 11% chance

[11 days per summer]

39oC has 1% chance




Summer 2003 impacts on roads
Summer 2003 impacts on roads transport

  • high temperatures - deformations in the surface of roads,

  • Type of road influences susceptibility to high temperatures, - asphalt and concrete behave in different ways.

  • Black surfaces melted and led to wheel rutting during summer of 2003. Causes aggregate to subside and the road to lose its grip (road-stone polishing).

  • (Other impacts):

    • cars with air conditioning had higher fuel use during the period;

    • vehicles were more susceptible to break-down – particularly from over heating.


Summer 2003 cambridgeshire
Summer 2003 - Cambridgeshire transport

  • Fens in Cambridgeshire made up of peat-containing wetland

  • Subsidence due to the desiccation and shrinkage of the peat deposits

  • Cambridgeshire County Council spent > £19 million on scheduled highway maintenance schemes.

  • Large number of additional structural maintenance schemes in need of urgent attention as a result of drought. Cost of schemes = £3.5 million.

  • Additional £1.1 million spent on emergency repairs of the highway due to cracking and deformation, which without attention would have left the roads in a dangerous condition.


Summer 2003 uk wide
Summer 2003 – UK-wide transport

  • Assumptions/limitations

    • Quantify costs associated with road subsidence.

    • Incidence confined to roads in management of local authorities Assumed to be because A-roads and Motorways built to different construction specification and therefore less vulnerable to subsidence.

    • Supporting this assumption, no additional funds were requested by UK Highways Agency for subsidence repair work following summer of 2003.

    • No estimates of time loss values and other WTP to avoid damage, e.g. to vehicles, as a result of road subsidence.  use restoration costs to proxy for impact costs


Summer 2003 uk wide costs
Summer 2003 – UK-wide costs transport

  • Costs split between local authority and central government:

  • local authorities have access to emergency running costs cover under 'Bellwin Scheme' in LG and Housing Act 1989 up to 85% of overall costs, <2 Months. 

  • If significant damage > 2 months months - DfT considers contingency funding

  • DfT policy: contribution to capital costs of reconstruction, though LA to spend > 15% of annual capital road maintenance grant

  • In this instance a number of counties, including Wiltshire, Surrey, Bedfordshire, Suffolk and Norfolk were not eligible for DfT additional support.






Lessons for the future avoiding future damages examples of adaptation
Lessons for the future: in UK Avoiding future damages – examples of adaptation

  • Reactive: repair regime as now

  • Proactive: up-grade road surfaces further from current British Standard (revised after hot summer of 1995).

  • Proactive Tree felling since trees remove moisture from soil and if close to road actually deform the road.


Lessons for the future cont
Lessons for the future (cont.) in UK

Policy

  • Public bodies need to prepare for greater call on repair funds – if surfaces and road structures likely to remain vulnerable

  • Funding rules may need to be revisited

    Research

  • Since more pressure on funding likely, more attention on justification likely e.g. WTP to avoid time delays, frequency of events etc.


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