Meteorology 485
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Meteorology 485. Long Range Forecasting Friday, January 16, 2004. Medium Range Guidance. Numerical Models GFS – NCEP’s Global Forecast System From 6 to 384 hours; most forecast fields Resolution changes at 180 hours (T126 to T62) Twelve member ensemble; 5 +, 5 -, 1 Cntl, 1 Opn

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Meteorology 485

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Meteorology 485

Meteorology 485

Long Range Forecasting

Friday, January 16, 2004


Medium range guidance

Medium Range Guidance

  • Numerical Models

    • GFS – NCEP’s Global Forecast System

      • From 6 to 384 hours; most forecast fields

      • Resolution changes at 180 hours (T126 to T62)

      • Twelve member ensemble; 5 +, 5 -, 1 Cntl, 1 Opn

      • Run four times a day; 00z & 12Z to 384 hrs, 6z & 18z to 180hrs

        See: http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/

    • CMC – Canadian Meteorological Center

      • From 12 to 240 hours; all forecast fields

      • Four different physics packages

      • Sixteen member ensemble; 4 different IC for each

      • Run once a day at 00Z to 240 hrs

        See: http://gfx.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/charts/index_e.html


Models

Models

  • GFSCMC


Medium range guidance1

Medium Range Guidance

  • NOGAPS – U.S. Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System

    • From 6 to 144 hours, twice each day (00-12Z)

    • T159L24 /non-ensembled

    • Multiple derived products for ocean use

  • UKMET – United Kingdom Meteorological Office (Forecast Model)

    • From 12 to 144 hours, twice each day (00-12Z)

    • X=60km, Layers=38

    • New Physics Package added in August 2002

    • Many derived products for customers


Models1

Models

  • NOGAPS UKMET


Medium range guidance2

Medium Range Guidance

  • ECMWF – European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts

    • Run from 6 to 240 hours at 00Z & 12Z

    • T159L60; equivalent of 40km grid spacing

    • 50 member ensemble for most fields


Models2

Models

  • ECMWF


Model output guidance

Model Output Guidance

  • KABE

  • KABE GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/11/2004 000 UTC

  • SUN 11| MON 12| TUE 13| WED 14| THU 15| FRI 16| SAT 17| SUN 18 CLIMO

  • FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192|

  • MX/MN

  • OPRNL 21| 21 41| 29 41| 18 19| 10 16| 5 21| 9 30| 17 35|

  • MEAN 20| 20 40| 27 38| 13 18| 7 21| 11 21| 12 27| 15 29|

  • STDV 0| 0 1| 2 2| 4 3| 5 6| 4 3| 3 5| 3 4|

  • HI 21| 21 41| 30 42| 18 23| 17 33| 20 28| 19 36| 21 35|

  • LO 20| 20 39| 23 33| 5 12| 1 16| 5 18| 9 21| 10 25|

  • TMP 18| 26 35| 30 28| 15 13| 10 16| 14 17| 16 22| 18 24|

  • DWPT 8| 21 25| 21 11| 2 -3| 3 4| 4 4| 7 11| 11 13|

  • CLD OV| OV OV| OV OV| PC PC| OV OV| PC PC| OV OV| OV OV|

  • P12

  • OPRNL 6| 67 18| 3 8| 0 3| 38 51| 3 6| 4 16| 15 21|

  • MEAN 19| 71 20| 9 3| 3 7| 29 29| 9 10| 18 34| 24 23|

  • STDV 6| 8 1| 6 2| 2 3| 20 10| 3 2| 5 9| 6 8|

  • HI 32| 86 23| 26 8| 6 13| 56 51| 14 14| 25 55| 38 42|

  • LO 6| 57 17| 3 0| 0 3| 0 12| 3 6| 4 16| 15 16|

  • P24

  • OPRNL | 70| 15| 5| 63| 10| 16| 27|

  • MEAN | 78| 19| 9| 43| 16| 36| 36|

  • STDV | 9| 4| 3| 15| 3| 10| 4|

  • HI | 95| 29| 15| 63| 22| 55| 42|

  • LO | 64| 15| 3| 12| 10| 16| 27|


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