China s Fifth Generation Air Combat Ambitions: A Preliminary Assessment

1. China’s Fifth Generation Air Combat Ambitions: A Preliminary Assessment By Richard D. Fisher, Jr. Senior Fellow, International Assessment and Strategy Center September 14, 2009

2. Summary Secretary Gates bold July 16 prediction that China will have no 5th generation fighters by 2020 updates Office of Naval Intelligence estimate of 1997 that it will enter service in 2015. China calls them 4th generation. PLA opsec regarding its 5th gen ambitions is very good; “grey” data, speculation and disinformation abound. What is known: The Shenyang and Chengdu Aircraft Corporations have 5th gen programs. There may be a medium weight 5th gen combat aircraft program as well. One objective 15-ton turbofan engine program exists, and one more may be coming. China has had a longstanding interest in stealth and advanced aircraft systems. Next gen AAMs are on the way. Spinoffs may already be enabling 4+ gen fighter programs. Consideration of broader China threat to U.S. forces in Asia: ASATs; SSMs; ASBMs; LACMs; SSN/SSKs; ABN; Spec Ops

3. Previous Assessments of Advanced PLA Fighter 1997: Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) offers assessment: “This aircraft [ XXJ] is expected to be a large multi-role fighter with an emphasis on air combat and reduced signature design. The aircraft should enter service with both the air force and the navy around 2015.” July 2009: Secretary of Defense Robert Gates: [for the U.S. Air Force in 2020,]“nearly 1,100 [combat aircraft] will be the most advanced fifth generation F-35s and F-22s. China, by contrast, is projected to have no fifth generation aircraft by 2020. And by 2025, the gap only widens. The U.S. will have approximately 1,700 of the most advanced fifth generation fighters versus a handful of comparable aircraft for the Chinese.” August 2009: At MAKS airshow, Sukhoi official estimates that China may only have prototype 5th generation fighters by 2020.

4. Grounds for skepticism ? 2002 DoD PLA Report, page 20: “While continuing to research and discuss possibilities, China appears to have set aside indefinitely plans to acquire an aircraft carrier.” No mention of PLA 5th Generation program in DoD PLA Reports. Russian underestimation of China’s ability to absorb and modify their technology.

5. PLA Rules: Very little transparency regarding its 5th gen programs. Many interesting “grey” data points but also generous mis/disinformation.

6. Few Details, Large Ambition In one of the few, if perhaps the only public statement by a PLA officer on their 5th generation program, during the April 2009 PLA Navy Anniversary celebrations, PLA Navy commander Admiral Wu Shengli states the PLAN’s requirement for a fighter capable of “supersonic cruise.” We can safely presume requirements for stealth, high maneuver, advanced radar/weapons Previous analysis that China after seeking considerable foreign technology to accelerate its 4th generation (3rd in Chinese) combat aircraft programs, it hopes to use its 5th generation program to achieve essential self sufficiency in high technologies. Russia apparently is not engaged in China’s 5th gen program. China is attempting steep and ambitious goals. It is essentially seeking to go from a 3rd generation to a 5th generation air combat fighter capability within 30 years, starting from the decision to accelerate all military building following the Tiananmen Massacre. Furthermore, the PLAAF seeking to transform elsewhere: BVR combat, AWACS and EW, advanced SAM to space warfare, new long-range transports. That’s just hardware, then there is the software. China has faced well known difficulties in fielding the Chengdu’s J-10 and Shenyang’s J-11. But with the help of increasing design competence, practice, better CAD-CAM programs, it has been able to more rapidly develop new versions of both fighter families. Can Shenyang and Chengdu accumulate their lessons and apply them to breakthroughs necessary to advance to the 5th generation? Perhaps faster in airframes than engines and other systems? Might this program run longer than ten years to get to the field? But one should not underestimate China’s determination and willingness to devote resources. 

7. Shenyang Aircraft Co. Usually associated with conventional designs. Can benefit directly and indirectly from active Russian connection.

8. Chengdu Aircraft Co. Known interest in advanced canard designs. Known work with Russian design expertise.

9. Possible Medium Weight 5th Gen Program ? Early 2005 disclosure by a Chinese source that Chengdu Aircraft Co. was considering a “F-35” class program. Source declined to go into details. But at the 2006 Zhuhai show, Shenyang displays a concept for an apparent medium weight stealthy, high-maneuverability fighter. Might there be an ongoing PLA program for a multi-service, medium weight 5th gen fighter?

10. “Shenyang’s” 15-ton afterburning turbofan program The 606 Aeroengine Research Institute has been a leading organ in the development of the 12-to-13 ton thrust “Taihang” turbofan. 606 is also believed to be developing a more powerful 15-ton thrust derivative of the Taihang. One Chinese source notes the goals for this engine is 15.5 tons of thrust and a 9.5 thrust-to-weight ratio. However the Taihang has long been facing developmental challenges, and the status of the new engine is not known.

11. Fifth Gen Engine 2: Via the Ukraine ? From MAKS 09: A potential tie up between Motor Sich and Chinese concerns to develop a 15-ton thrust engine, all of which would follow Chinese co-production of the AI-222-25 for the L-15 trainer, then a large-bypass turbofan joint program, and then and then a 15-ton engine based on the yet-to-be-developed AI-9500F. Chinese source indicates this program will be led on the Chinese side by the 608 Aeroengine Institute, which is associated with the Chengdu Aircraft Corporation.

12. Advanced Systems

13. New AAMs Known program by Luoyang to develop new all-aspect short-range AAM, with possible help from South Africa’s A-Darter program. Possible PLA development of a ramjet powered AAM, with South African or Russian technology inputs. Longer range variants of the Luoyang PL-12/SD-10. Curious small apparently radar guided AAM. Future Russian AAM options: long range R-73/R-77/new 5th gen AAMs..

14. 4+ Generation Programs

15. Air power developments only one worry