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Errors in statistical research?

Errors in statistical research?. What happens when you make a mistake? Get a set of headphones Open class website. Growth in a Time of Debt Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff. Growth in a Time of Debt Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff NBER Working Paper No. 15639 January 2010

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Errors in statistical research?

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  1. Errors in statistical research? What happens when you make a mistake? Get a set of headphones Open class website

  2. Growth in a Time of DebtCarmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff

  3. Growth in a Time of Debt • Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff • NBER Working Paper No. 15639 • January 2010 • , Revised January 2010 • JEL No. E2,E3,E6,F3,F4,N10 • ABSTRACT • We study economic growth and inflation at different levels of government and external debt. Our • analysis is based on new data on forty-four countries spanning about two hundred years. The dataset • incorporates over 3,700 annual observations covering a wide range of political systems, institutions, • exchange rate arrangements, and historic circumstances. Our main findings are: First, the relationship • between government debt and real GDP growth is weak for debt/GDP ratios below a threshold of 90 • percent of GDP. Above 90 percent, median growth rates fall by one percent, and average growth falls • considerably more. We find that the threshold for public debt is similar in advanced and emerging • economies. Second, emerging markets face lower thresholds for external debt (public and private)—which • is usually denominated in a foreign currency. When external debt reaches 60 percent of GDP, annual • growth declines by about two percent; for higher levels, growth rates are roughly cut in half. Third, • there is no apparent contemporaneous link between inflation and public debt levels for the advanced • countries as a group (some countries, such as the United States, have experienced higher inflation • when debt/GDP is high).

  4. "This is a big deal because politicians around the world have used this finding from R&R to justify austerity measures that have slowed growth and raised unemployment." -Dean Baker, Economist

  5. PODCAST Planet Money: How Much Should We Trust Economics? Planet Money: How Much Should We Trust Economics?

  6. Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff

  7. Excel error

  8. Harvard

  9. If this error turns out to be an actual mistake Reinhart-Rogoff made, well, all I can hope is that future historians note that one of the core empirical points providing the intellectual foundation for the global move to austerity in the early 2010s was based on someone accidentally not updating a row formula in Excel. • -Mike Konczal • Roosevelt Institute

  10. Read ARticle • Researchers Finally Replicated Reinhart-Rogoff, and There Are Serious Problems.

  11. YOUTUBE VIDEO MORE Research errors: IS ITCorrelation OR causation?HOWCAN THESE ERRORS IMPACT SOCIETY?

  12. PODCAST CORRELATION & CAUSATION Does a public high school effect future success?Does an ivy league school cause more success?

  13. Talk with you group • Explain the type of errors that can occur when working with data and the type of errors that occur when mixing up correlation and causation?

  14. One page essay (minimum) • Explain the two types of errors: • 1) data analysis • 2) correlation and causation mix up • How can you avoid these errors? • How have these errors affected public policy and/or peoples behavior? • Use examples from today in your discussion

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