Improved road weather forecasting by using high resolution satellite data
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Improved road weather forecasting by using high resolution satellite data Claus Petersen and Bent H. Sass Danish Meteorological Institute. Background.

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Background 4371677

Improved road weather forecasting by using high resolution satellite dataClaus Petersen and Bent H. SassDanish Meteorological Institute


Background

Background

  • It has been realized that prediction of cloud cover and precipitation play a key role in prediction of the road surface temperature and the road conditions.

  • Prediction of cloud cover requires a NWP model which can model clouds and data-assimilation of cloud cover and precipitation observations.


Viking project

Viking project

  • Title

    • Development of new generation of cloud and precipitation analyses for the automatic Road Weather Model

  • Duration

    • 2003-2005

  • Goal

    • Improvement of the forecasts for slippery roads by developing a new prediction model


Numerical weather prediction nwp model

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model


Already used observations

Already used observations


Model domain of nwp model and network of road stations

Model domain of NWP model and network of road stations

  • Horizontal resolution0.15x0.15

  • Vertical levels 40

  • Number of grid points82x98=8036

  • Dynamic time step 72 s.

  • Physical time step 360 s.

  • Boundary update 1 hour

  • Boundary age 0-5 hours

  • First guess age 0-1 hour

  • Forecast frequency Every hour

  • Forecast length 5-24 hours

  • Data-assimilation period3 hours

  • Road stations300


Data sources

Data sources


Single channels or composite

Single channels or composite


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Cloud mask

Cloud top temperature

Precipitation intensity

Cloud type


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Application of cloud observations


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Application of cloud observations


Forecast

1 hour forecast with data-assimilation of satellite data

FORECAST

Observed cloud mask

1 hour forecast of cloud mask

1 hour forecast of wind and temperature

1 hour forecast of precipitation, mslp


Forecast1

1 hour forecast without data-assimilation of satellite data

FORECAST

Observed cloud mask

1 hour forecast of cloud mask

1 hour forecast of wind and temperature

1 hour forecast of precipitation, mslp


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6 hour forecast with data-assimilation of satellite data

Observed cloud mask

6 hour forecast of cloud mask

6 hour forecast of wind and temperature

6 hour forecast of precipitation, mslp


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6 hour forecast without data-assimilation of satellite data

Observed cloud mask

6 hour forecast of cloud mask

6 hour forecast of wind and temperature

6 hour forecast of precipitation, mslp


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21 hour forecast with data-assimilation of satellite data

Observed cloud mask

21 hour forecast of cloud mask

21 hour forecast of wind and temperature

21 hour forecast of precipitation, mslp


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21 hour forecast without data-assimilation of satellite data

Observed cloud mask

21 hour forecast of cloud mask

21 hour forecast of wind and temperature

21 hour forecast of precipitation, mslp


Road condition model

Road Condition Model

G: Ground heat flux

S: Direct insolation

D: Diffuse insolation

R: Infrared radiation

H: Sensible heat flux

L: Latent heat flux

F: Flux correction


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User interface


Verification of cloud forecast

Verification of cloud forecast

  • First two weeks of March 2005

  • Danish SYNOP stations

  • Limited MSG1 data

  • Verifcation for model run every hour


Best practice

Best practice

  • A general method has been developed to assimilate cloud observations into a NWP model.

  • Verification and case studies indicate that prediction of cloud cover is improved for short range forecasting but that results can be further improved with more experience.

  • Further verification and investigation of the road surface temperature dependency of cloud cover are needed.

  • Satellite data will be used in the road weather model from this season

  • The potential use of satellite data in other road application is very large.


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QUESTIONS

CONTACT

Claus Petersen [email protected]

Danish Meteorological Institute

LINKS

www.dmi.dk

www.eumetsat.int

http://nwcsaf.inm.es


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