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Thanks SO Much for ALL the Data: The Amundsen Sea Sector Data Set: Applications with UMISM: Where and How Much WATER? What WILL happen in the future?. James L Fastook University of Maine

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Thanks SO Much for ALL the Data: The Amundsen Sea Sector Data Set: Applications with UMISM: Where and How Much WATER? What WILL happen in the future?

James L Fastook

University of Maine

We thank the NSF, which has supported the development of this model over many years through several different grants.

bedmap vs agasea bbas
BEDMAP vs AGASEA/BBAS*
  • Airborne Geophysical survey of the Amundsen Sea Embayment (Holt et al., 2006 & Vaughan et al., 2006)
embedded models
Embedded Models
  • High-resolution, limited domain
    • runs inside
  • Low-resolution, larger domain model.
  • Modeling the whole ice sheet allows margins to be internally generated.
    • No need to specify flux or ice thickness along a boundary transecting an ice sheet.
  • Specification of appropriate Boundary Conditions for limited-domain model, based on spatial and temporal interpolations of larger-domain model.
growth and retreat thickness
Growth and retreat: thickness
  • See AGASEA:Thick
  • Requires bandwidth, movies are large…
  • http://tulip.umcs.maine.edu/~shamis/iweb/WAIS-2006/AGASEA%3AThick.html
growth and retreat velocity
Growth and retreat: velocity
  • See AGASEA:Velo
  • Requires bandwidth, movies are large…
  • http://tulip.umcs.maine.edu/~shamis/iweb/WAIS-2006/AGASEA%3AVelo.html
growth and retreat water
Growth and retreat: water
  • See AGASEA:Water
  • Requires bandwidth, movies are large…
  • http://tulip.umcs.maine.edu/~shamis/iweb/WAIS-2006/AGASEA%3AWater.html
thwaites thickness1
Thwaites: thickness
  • See Thwaites:Thick
  • Requires bandwidth, movies are large…
  • http://tulip.umcs.maine.edu/~shamis/iweb/WAIS-2006/Thwaites%3AThick.html
thwaites velocity2
Thwaites: velocity
  • See Thwaites:Velo
  • Requires bandwidth, movies are large…
  • http://tulip.umcs.maine.edu/~shamis/iweb/WAIS-2006/Thwaites%3AVelo.html
thwaites water1
Thwaites: water
  • See Thwaites:Water
  • Requires bandwidth, movies are large…
  • http://tulip.umcs.maine.edu/~shamis/iweb/WAIS-2006/Thwaites%3AWater.html
pig thickness1
PIG: Thickness
  • See PIG:Thick
  • Requires bandwidth, movies are large…
  • http://tulip.umcs.maine.edu/~shamis/iweb/WAIS-2006/PIG%3AThick.html
pig velocity2
PIG: velocity
  • See PIG:Velo
  • Requires bandwidth, movies are large…
  • http://tulip.umcs.maine.edu/~shamis/iweb/WAIS-2006/PIG%3AVelo.html
pig water1
PIG: water
  • See PIG:Water
  • Requires bandwidth, movies are large…
  • http://tulip.umcs.maine.edu/~shamis/iweb/WAIS-2006/PIG%3AWater.html
future retreat scenarios
Future Retreat Scenarios
  • Beginning with end of glacial cycle
    • Run 100 years with conditions that produced present grounding line position.
    • Then 1900 years with 1.00 Weertman thinning at grounding line wherever the bed is below 550 m.
future retreat scenarios1
Future Retreat Scenarios
  • Beginning with end of glacial cycle
    • Run 100 years with conditions that produced present grounding line position.
    • Then 1900 years with 1.00 Weertman thinning at grounding line wherever the bed is below 550 m.
  • Two Cases:
    • Condition is applied everywhere.
      • Ross and Filchner-Ronne, as well as East Antarctica.
    • Condition is only applied in Amundsen Sea Sector.
  • Two distinct patterns of retreat emerge for these two cases.
case 1 thickness
Case 1: thickness
  • See Case 1:Thick
  • Requires bandwidth, movies are large…
  • http://tulip.umcs.maine.edu/~shamis/iweb/WAIS-2006/Case 1%3AThick.html
case 1 velocity
Case 1: velocity
  • See Case 1:Velo
  • Requires bandwidth, movies are large…
  • http://tulip.umcs.maine.edu/~shamis/iweb/WAIS-2006/Case 1%3AVelo.html
case 1 water
Case 1: water
  • See Case 1:Water
  • Requires bandwidth, movies are large…
  • http://tulip.umcs.maine.edu/~shamis/iweb/WAIS-2006/Case 1%3AWater.html
case 2 thickness
Case 2: thickness
  • See Case 2:Thick
  • Requires bandwidth, movies are large…
  • http://tulip.umcs.maine.edu/~shamis/iweb/WAIS-2006/Case 2%3AThick.html
case 2 velocity
Case 2: velocity
  • See Case 2:Velo
  • Requires bandwidth, movies are large…
  • http://tulip.umcs.maine.edu/~shamis/iweb/WAIS-2006/Case 2%3AVelo.html
case 2 water
Case 2: water
  • See Case 2:Water
  • Requires bandwidth, movies are large…
  • http://tulip.umcs.maine.edu/~shamis/iweb/WAIS-2006/Case 2%3AWater.html
1 conclusions past cycle
1. Conclusions: Past cycle
  • From a modeler’s perspective the new data set is great.
  • The nested, embedded model captures the salient features of the Amundsen Sea Sector velocity field.
  • The water system is
    • dendritic,
    • follows bed topography,
    • appears to be decreasing in area as the present is approached,
    • with peak water volumes during or just prior to periods of retreat.
2 conclusions future retreat
2. Conclusions: Future retreat
  • Retreat scenarios depend strongly on whether grounding-line thinning is confined to the Amundsen Sector (Case 2) or involve the Ross and Filchner-Ronne too (Case 1).
    • In Case 1, retreat is much faster and more extensive, and comes in from behind the Amundsen Sea Sector.
    • Case 2 looks more like the classic “weak underbelly” with retreat in Thwaites and up the PIG with a non-smooth episodic retreat punctuated by pulses of water production that seem to precede retreat steps.
case 1 rate
Case 1: Rate
  • Case 1:Rate
  • Requires bandwidth, movies are large…
  • http://tulip.umcs.maine.edu/~shamis/iweb/WAIS-2006/Case 1%3ARate.html
case 2 rate
Case 2: Rate
  • See Case 2:Rate
  • Requires bandwidth, movies are large…
  • http://tulip.umcs.maine.edu/~shamis/iweb/WAIS-2006/Case 2%3ARate.html
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