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Aviation User Training: TAF Interpretation and Supplemental Products. Outline. TAF Basics TAF Definitions and Limitations TAF Interpretation-reading into the TAF Supplemental Products Links. TAF Issuance Times. 06z Monday – 00z Saturday. 00z Saturday - 06z Monday.

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Presentation Transcript
outline
Outline
  • TAF Basics
  • TAF Definitions and Limitations
  • TAF Interpretation-reading into the TAF
  • Supplemental Products
  • Links
taf issuance times
TAF Issuance Times

06z Monday – 00z Saturday

00z Saturday - 06z Monday

Every 3 hours starting at 00z Saturday

Unscheduled AMD’s as needed

00, 06, 12, 18z issued 20-40 min prior

Scheduled AMD’s issued around top of the hour

  • Every 2 hours starting at 06z Monday
  • Unscheduled AMD’s as needed
  • 00, 06, 12, 18z issued 20-40 min prior
  • Scheduled AMD’s issued around top of the hour
slide4
TAFs
  • Forecast for conditions within 5SM of the center of an airport
  • Valid for 30 hrs at ORD and 24 hrs at MDW, RFD, DPA, GYY
fm from groups
FM – From Groups
  • A new FM group indicates a significant change in prevailing conditions
  • >50% probability of conditions occurring
tempo
TEMPO
  • >50% probability of occurrence and,
  • Last for 1 hour or less in each instance and,
  • Cover less than half the time period of the TEMPO group
  • May not last long or may be intermittent
prob30
PROB30
  • 30% chance of occurrence
  • Cannot be used in the first 9 hours of the valid TAF period
vc vicinity
VC – Vicinity
  • Donut shaped area between 5 and 10 SM from the center of the airport
  • Used when there is a >50% probability of occurrence within the donut and it is expected to occur more than half of the forecast time period
  • A prevailing condition in the 5-10 SM donut
  • VCTS, VCSH, VCFG
slide10
CB
  • Appended to the cloud group (BKN030CB)
  • May be included without TS
  • Indicates TS is possible but:
    • It is NOT certain it will occur at the airport or in the vicinity
available probabilities
Available Probabilities
  • >50%
  • <50% (if we don’t include something)
  • 30%...but only beyond the first 9 hours
  • Lots of room for interpretation!!
taf challenges
TAF Challenges
  • Complex definitions
  • Rigid format with little room to convey specific uncertainty or confidence
  • However…there is more information available and there are ways to better utilize the TAF
the trend is your friend
The Trend is Your Friend
  • Look for trends within each TAF
  • Look for trends in successive TAFs (can you access earlier versions?)
    • Can indicate our confidence level in the forecast
    • Can establish if chances for occurrence are increasing or decreasing
  • Unscheduled amendments indicate a high degree of confidence in forecast changes
trends within a taf
Trends Within A TAF

Indicates –TSRA may be developing

SHRA/TSRA between 5 and 10 SM from the airfield

TAF

KORD 231740Z 2318/2424 15012KT P6SM SCT040CB

FM232100 16012KT P6SM VCSH BKN040CB

TEMPO 2322/2324 30024G50KT 1SM TSRA BKN030CB OVC050

FM240000 30010KT P6SM –SHRA BKN040CB

FM240200 30010KT P6SM SCT040

>50% chance of occurrence <50% of the TEMPO period

accessing previous tafs
Accessing Previous TAFs

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=aviation

aviation afd
Aviation AFD
  • Your window into the forecasters’ mind
  • Updated with every scheduled TAF issuance
  • Use side-by-side with the TAF
  • Specifically outlines concerns for ORD/MDW and provides level of forecast confidence
  • May also include alternative scenarios for lower confidence or lower probability situations
warm weather tips
Warm Weather Tips
  • Four Product Approach
    • TAF
    • Aviation Forecast Discussion
    • Thunderstorm Tactical Decision Aids
    • CCFP
our approach to forecasting thunder
Our Approach to Forecasting Thunder
  • What is the trigger (cold front, trough…)?
  • How much coverage should we expect with this type of trigger?
  • How long does TS usually last with this type of setup?
  • How confident are we that TS will occur? (what mitigating factors are there?)
  • What is the most likely time window for occurrence?
conveying confidence
Conveying Confidence
  • CB
    • can be used to indicate the presence of CB’s
    • hints at the possibility of TS
  • VCTS
    • prevailing TS in the 5-10 mile donut around the terminal
    • used when coverage is scattered/or storms skirting by and/or there is uncertainty that the terminal will be directly affected
ts tda
TS TDA
  • TS probability at key arrival and departure points
  • Does not show TS chances at the terminals or areas between the terminals and the gates
  • Frequently updated
slide27
CCFP
  • Designed for the en route environment; strategic planning of efficient routes
  • Too coarse for use in the terminal area
  • Can be used to help establish confidence in potential for TS occurrence in the general area near terminals
winter weather tips
Winter Weather Tips
  • Four Product Approach
    • TAF
    • Aviation Forecast Discussion
    • ORD Winter Precipitation Outlook
    • Winter Weather Headlines (watches/warnings/advisories)
experimental o hare winter precipitation outlook
Experimental O’Hare Winter Precipitation Outlook
  • November 1-March 31
  • 5 am, 11 am, 5 pm local time
  • No updates between issuances
links
Links
  • Add latest links here
questions
Questions??

Scott Shelerud

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