Aviation user training taf interpretation and supplemental products
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Aviation User Training: TAF Interpretation and Supplemental Products. Outline. TAF Basics TAF Definitions and Limitations TAF Interpretation-reading into the TAF Supplemental Products Links. TAF Issuance Times. 06z Monday – 00z Saturday. 00z Saturday - 06z Monday.

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Aviation user training taf interpretation and supplemental products

Aviation User Training: TAF Interpretation and Supplemental Products


Outline

Outline

  • TAF Basics

  • TAF Definitions and Limitations

  • TAF Interpretation-reading into the TAF

  • Supplemental Products

  • Links


Taf issuance times

TAF Issuance Times

06z Monday – 00z Saturday

00z Saturday - 06z Monday

Every 3 hours starting at 00z Saturday

Unscheduled AMD’s as needed

00, 06, 12, 18z issued 20-40 min prior

Scheduled AMD’s issued around top of the hour

  • Every 2 hours starting at 06z Monday

  • Unscheduled AMD’s as needed

  • 00, 06, 12, 18z issued 20-40 min prior

  • Scheduled AMD’s issued around top of the hour


Aviation user training taf interpretation and supplemental products

TAFs

  • Forecast for conditions within 5SM of the center of an airport

  • Valid for 30 hrs at ORD and 24 hrs at MDW, RFD, DPA, GYY


Definitions and limitations

Definitions and limitations


Fm from groups

FM – From Groups

  • A new FM group indicates a significant change in prevailing conditions

  • >50% probability of conditions occurring


Tempo

TEMPO

  • >50% probability of occurrence and,

  • Last for 1 hour or less in each instance and,

  • Cover less than half the time period of the TEMPO group

  • May not last long or may be intermittent


Prob30

PROB30

  • 30% chance of occurrence

  • Cannot be used in the first 9 hours of the valid TAF period


Vc vicinity

VC – Vicinity

  • Donut shaped area between 5 and 10 SM from the center of the airport

  • Used when there is a >50% probability of occurrence within the donut and it is expected to occur more than half of the forecast time period

  • A prevailing condition in the 5-10 SM donut

  • VCTS, VCSH, VCFG


Aviation user training taf interpretation and supplemental products

CB

  • Appended to the cloud group (BKN030CB)

  • May be included without TS

  • Indicates TS is possible but:

    • It is NOT certain it will occur at the airport or in the vicinity


Available probabilities

Available Probabilities

  • >50%

  • <50% (if we don’t include something)

  • 30%...but only beyond the first 9 hours

  • Lots of room for interpretation!!


Taf challenges

TAF Challenges

  • Complex definitions

  • Rigid format with little room to convey specific uncertainty or confidence

  • However…there is more information available and there are ways to better utilize the TAF


Taf interpretation

Getting the Most From the TAF

TAF Interpretation


The trend is your friend

The Trend is Your Friend

  • Look for trends within each TAF

  • Look for trends in successive TAFs (can you access earlier versions?)

    • Can indicate our confidence level in the forecast

    • Can establish if chances for occurrence are increasing or decreasing

  • Unscheduled amendments indicate a high degree of confidence in forecast changes


Trends within a taf

Trends Within A TAF

Indicates –TSRA may be developing

SHRA/TSRA between 5 and 10 SM from the airfield

TAF

KORD 231740Z 2318/2424 15012KT P6SM SCT040CB

FM232100 16012KT P6SM VCSH BKN040CB

TEMPO 2322/2324 30024G50KT 1SM TSRA BKN030CB OVC050

FM240000 30010KT P6SM –SHRA BKN040CB

FM240200 30010KT P6SM SCT040

>50% chance of occurrence <50% of the TEMPO period


Trends among successive tafs

Trends Among Successive TAFs


Accessing previous tafs

Accessing Previous TAFs

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/?n=aviation


The aviation forecast discussion

Additional Information:

The Aviation Forecast Discussion


Aviation afd

Aviation AFD

  • Your window into the forecasters’ mind

  • Updated with every scheduled TAF issuance

  • Use side-by-side with the TAF

  • Specifically outlines concerns for ORD/MDW and provides level of forecast confidence

  • May also include alternative scenarios for lower confidence or lower probability situations


Valuable seasonal products

Additional Information:

Valuable Seasonal Products


Warm weather tips

Warm Weather Tips

  • Four Product Approach

    • TAF

    • Aviation Forecast Discussion

    • Thunderstorm Tactical Decision Aids

    • CCFP


Our approach to forecasting thunder

Our Approach to Forecasting Thunder

  • What is the trigger (cold front, trough…)?

  • How much coverage should we expect with this type of trigger?

  • How long does TS usually last with this type of setup?

  • How confident are we that TS will occur? (what mitigating factors are there?)

  • What is the most likely time window for occurrence?


Conveying confidence

Conveying Confidence

  • CB

    • can be used to indicate the presence of CB’s

    • hints at the possibility of TS

  • VCTS

    • prevailing TS in the 5-10 mile donut around the terminal

    • used when coverage is scattered/or storms skirting by and/or there is uncertainty that the terminal will be directly affected


Ts tda

TS TDA

  • TS probability at key arrival and departure points

  • Does not show TS chances at the terminals or areas between the terminals and the gates

  • Frequently updated


Alternate ts tda

Alternate TS TDA


Aviation user training taf interpretation and supplemental products

CCFP

  • Designed for the en route environment; strategic planning of efficient routes

  • Too coarse for use in the terminal area

  • Can be used to help establish confidence in potential for TS occurrence in the general area near terminals


Winter weather tips

Winter Weather Tips

  • Four Product Approach

    • TAF

    • Aviation Forecast Discussion

    • ORD Winter Precipitation Outlook

    • Winter Weather Headlines (watches/warnings/advisories)


Experimental o hare winter precipitation outlook

Experimental O’Hare Winter Precipitation Outlook

  • November 1-March 31

  • 5 am, 11 am, 5 pm local time

  • No updates between issuances


Aviation user training taf interpretation and supplemental products

Winter Weather Headlines


Links

Links

  • Add latest links here


Questions

Questions??

Scott Shelerud


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