The impact of residential mobility on measurements of neighbourhood effects
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The Impact of Residential Mobility on Measurements of Neighbourhood Effects. Lina Bergström Institute for Housing and Urban Studies Uppsala University [email protected]

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The impact of residential mobility on measurements of neighbourhood effects

The Impact of Residential Mobility on Measurements of Neighbourhood Effects

Lina Bergström

Institute for Housing and Urban Studies

Uppsala University

[email protected]


Source: Andersson, R (2008) Neighbourhood Effects and the Welfare State. Towards a European research agenda? Schmollers Jahrbuch 128 pp. 1-14 (Data from GeoSweden)


Change in Ethnic Composition 1991-2006, Tensta, Stockholm Welfare State. Towards a European research agenda?

Source: GeoSweden


A holistic framework
A holistic framework Welfare State. Towards a European research agenda?

Moving patterns

Moving patterns

Moving patterns

Individual

mobility

Time t

Time t+1

Neighbourhood conditions

Neighbourhood conditions

Aggregate

behaviour

Individual

behaviour

Aggregate

behaviour

Individual

behaviour


Challenge 1 exposure time
Challenge 1: Exposure time Welfare State. Towards a European research agenda?

  • Transmission mechanisms require a critical amount of exposure

    Problems:

  • How long residing in neighbourhood?

    - is exposure sufficient?

    - affects on impact

  • During what time in life?

  • How do exposure to different neighbourhoods relate to each other?


Challenge 2 neighbourhood change
Challenge 2: Welfare State. Towards a European research agenda? Neighbourhood Change

  • Neighbourhood context may change over time

  • The urban opportunity structure may change over time

    Problems:

  • Estimate exposure to constant neighbourhood?

  • Observable and unobservable characteristics

  • Aggregate levels vs. individual influence


Solutions: Welfare State. Towards a European research agenda?

  • Sampling

    • Exposure to neighbourhood

      Problem: changing contexts

    • Exposure to environmental characteristic

      Problem: impact of specific neighbourhoods

    • Exposure to stable neighbourhood context

      Problem: small, unrepresentative and biased samples

  • Control variables for exposure time and changing contexts

    Problem: finding enough and “right” control variables

  • Complementary data, e.g. surveys


Challenge 3 selection bias
Challenge 3: Selection bias Welfare State. Towards a European research agenda?

  • People select themselves into neighbourhoods for reasons unknown to the researcher

  • Reasons might be correlated with outcome

  • Most scholars agree that bias exist, some argue that all effects are due to bias

    Problem:

    Eliminating selection bias to find effect of neighbourhood


Solutions: Welfare State. Towards a European research agenda?

  • Experimental data (like MTO)

    Problem: Rare, must fulfil criteria of exposure and selection bias control

  • Statistical techniques

    • Sibling analysis

    • Difference modelling

    • Instrumental variables

      Problem: Eliminate bias but says nothing about selection processes

  • Modelling neighbourhood choice

    Problem: Explanatory value need to be good for eliminating selection bias


Challenge 4 endogeneity bias
Challenge 4: Endogeneity bias Welfare State. Towards a European research agenda?

  • The choice of neighbourhood as a joint decision with choice of tenure, type of housing, length of stay

  • All may be correlated with outcome

    Problem

  • Isolating the effect of the neighbourhood

    Solution

  • Instrumental variables

    Problem: finding good instruments


Conclusion implications for research
Conclusion: Implications for research Welfare State. Towards a European research agenda?

  • Residential mobility and neighbourhood effects are two interconnected fields

  • Mobility must be incorporated into models

  • Longitudinal data!

  • Control for exposure (ind./neigh’d)

  • Control for selection bias

  • Control for endogeneity

  • Or: Results will be biased or do not (necessarily) estimate neighbourhood effects!


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