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The State of Retailing Online 2013. Sucharita Mulpuru, VP & Principal Analyst Forrester Research. Online retail is the pawn that is now queen. Online retail: double-digit growth. Online November-December sales as a % of total web sales. 15% year-over-year growth in 2012 over 2011.

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The state of retailing online 2013

The State of Retailing Online 2013

Sucharita Mulpuru, VP & Principal Analyst

Forrester Research




Online November-December sales as a % of total web sales

15% year-over-year growth in 2012 over 2011

Source: Forrester Research


Base: 60 retailers

Source: State of Retailing Online 2013, a Shop.org study conducted by Forrester Research


State of retailing online study
State of Retailing Online Study

  • 10 years+ of data gathered with the goal of benchmarking

  • A survey of retailers primarily drawn from the Shop.org and NRF community

  • Extensive details, typically long surveys, 50-100 respondents on average


Agenda
Agenda

  • Recap of 2012

  • Implications for 2013 and beyond



Total phone and tablet sessions holiday 2012
Total phone and tablet sessions: Holiday 2012

Source: Monetate(aggregated session data)


US Mobile Commerce (excludes tablets) $B

Top M-Commerce Categories

Media

Consumer electronics

Apparel

Source: Forrester Research Mobile Commerce Forecast, 2012 to 2017 (US)

Note: Excludes tablet commerce and game/app downloads, auctions



Which is why companies are actually thinking site first
Which is why companies are actually thinking “site first”

Top Digital Initiatives for 2013 (# of Retailers Responding)

Source: State of Retailing Online 2013, a Shop.org study conducted by Forrester


2 holding out for a social hero
2. “Holding out for a (social) hero” first”

“…And e-commerce will become increasingly important to Facebook, as it builds its recently launched Gifts business. The e-commerce platform—which lets users send goods, like…gift cards and cookies, to friends—poses a threat to Amazon, especially as Facebook adds more retail partners.”

Wall Street Journal, December 25, 2012


How did you learn about these special deals [from today’s purchase]?

Thanksgiving Weekend

Pre-Thanksgiving

Cyber Monday)

2011

2012

Source: Bizrate Insights/Forrester Holiday Shopping Flash Surveys, Q4 2011 and Q4 2012






That s why multichannel still makes the list
That’s why “multichannel” still makes the list purchase]?

Top Digital Initiatives for 2013 (# of Retailers Responding)

Source: State of Retailing Online 2013, a Shop.org study conducted by Forrester Research


26% purchase]?

Sweden

16%

26%

Netherlands

UK

United States

Germany

15%

France

27%

10%

Base: 2,000 UK online adults, 2,000 Swedish online adults, 2,000 Dutch online adults, 2,000 German online adults, 2,065 Spanish online adults, 2,122 Italian online adults, 2,000 French online adults, n/a; Source: European Technographics Retail, Customer Experience, And Travel Online Survey, Q3 2010; North American Technographics Retail Online Survey, Q3 2009 (US)

Italy

Spain

12%

14%

%

= % of respondents who have purchased from online retailers outside the US

= % of respondents who have purchased from online retailers outside of Europe

%


Agenda1
Agenda purchase]?

  • Recap of 2012

  • Implications for 2013 and beyond


What to expect moving forward
What to expect moving forward purchase]?

  • With mobile, it will get a lot worse before it gets better

  • Whatever is up Amazon’s sleeve will keep you up at night

  • Relentless innovation will continue

  • Be prepared for the party to end


Intent among men 18-34 purchase]?

Future “showrooming” intention

Less

4%

Less

4%

About the same

49%

More

47%

More

37%

Base: 187 male smartphone owners

About the same

59%

Intent among women 18-34

Less

2%

More

31%

Base: 942 smartphone owners

Q: Do you think you will use your smartphone to research prices more or less in the future?

About the same

67%

Source: Forrester-Aprimo Showrooming Research, October 2012

Base: 209 female smartphone owners


Q: Which of the following might have persuaded you to have purchased the product/brand you were researching on a smartphone while shopping in a physical store from the store or from its website. Please select all that apply. .

Base: 153 smartphone owners who purchased products at other stores or did not purchase

Source: Forrester-Aprimo Showrooming Research, October 2012


Q: In which categories were the products you were researching or checking prices on your smartphone while shopping in a physical store? Please select all that apply.

Base: 415 smartphone owners who recently researched prices in stores

Source: Forrester-Aprimo Showrooming Research, October 2012


What to expect moving forward1
What to expect moving forward researching or checking prices on your smartphone while shopping in a physical store? Please select all that apply.

  • With mobile, it will get a lot worse before it gets better

  • Whatever is up Amazon’s sleeve will keep you up at night

  • Relentless innovation will continue

  • Be prepared for the party to end


Amazon s global marketplace revenue dwarfs its profit
Amazon’s global marketplace revenue dwarfs its profit researching or checking prices on your smartphone while shopping in a physical store? Please select all that apply.

US$MM

Source: Forrester estimates; GMV=gross merchandise value, the total value paid by shoppers in a transaction


“How does your membership in a shipping club or program affect your shopping frequency?”

“Are you a member of a shipping club or program (i.e. Amazon Prime, Shoprunner or Williams-Sonoma Reserve)?”

N: 776 shipping club members

Source: Bizrate/Forrester Holiday Shopping Flash Surveys, Q4 2010, Q4 2011 and Q4 2012


vs. a competitor affect your shopping frequency?”

“2-day shipping”

6 days away

$13

$20 for next day!


What to expect moving forward2
What to expect moving forward affect your shopping frequency?”

  • With mobile, it will get a lot worse before it gets better

  • Whatever is up Amazon’s sleeve will keep you up at night

  • Relentless innovation will continue

  • Be prepared for the party to end


2008 affect your shopping frequency?”

2010

2012

Flash sales

Daily deals

Subscriptions



What to expect moving forward3
What to expect moving forward commerce?

  • With mobile, it gets a lot worse before it gets better

  • Whatever is up Amazon’s sleeve will keep you up at night

  • Relentless innovation will continue

  • Be prepared for the party to end


November 2012 commerce?

December 2012

Source: Chase Paymentech Solutions


Shopper saturation?? commerce?

Deal fatigue??

% agreeing with statement: “I shopped in stores less because I shopped online instead.”

+10%

-5%

-8%

Base: online shoppers during Thanksgiving weekend

Base: pre-Thanksgiving online buyers

Source: Bizrate Insights/Forrester Holiday Shopping Flash Surveys, Q4 2010, Q4 2011 and Q4 2012



Wrap up
Wrap up commerce?

  • Responsive design for now, the next chapter may take a little while to be written

  • Learn from the innovators, they are often just product features anyway

  • Be prepared for tougher times

  • But for physical stores, that’s actually good news…



Sucharita Mulpuru commerce?

[email protected]

Twitter: @smulpuru


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