The state of retailing online 2013
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The State of Retailing Online 2013. Sucharita Mulpuru, VP & Principal Analyst Forrester Research. Online retail is the pawn that is now queen. Online retail: double-digit growth. Online November-December sales as a % of total web sales. 15% year-over-year growth in 2012 over 2011.

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The State of Retailing Online 2013

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The state of retailing online 2013

The State of Retailing Online 2013

Sucharita Mulpuru, VP & Principal Analyst

Forrester Research


The state of retailing online 2013

Online retail is the pawn that is now queen


Online retail double digit growth

Online retail: double-digit growth


The state of retailing online 2013

Online November-December sales as a % of total web sales

15% year-over-year growth in 2012 over 2011

Source: Forrester Research


The state of retailing online 2013

Base: 60 retailers

Source: State of Retailing Online 2013, a Shop.org study conducted by Forrester Research


State of retailing online study

State of Retailing Online Study

  • 10 years+ of data gathered with the goal of benchmarking

  • A survey of retailers primarily drawn from the Shop.org and NRF community

  • Extensive details, typically long surveys, 50-100 respondents on average


Agenda

Agenda

  • Recap of 2012

  • Implications for 2013 and beyond


1 mobile first

1. “Mobile first”


Total phone and tablet sessions holiday 2012

Total phone and tablet sessions: Holiday 2012

Source: Monetate(aggregated session data)


The state of retailing online 2013

US Mobile Commerce (excludes tablets) $B

Top M-Commerce Categories

Media

Consumer electronics

Apparel

Source: Forrester Research Mobile Commerce Forecast, 2012 to 2017 (US)

Note: Excludes tablet commerce and game/app downloads, auctions


Retailers seem to be a little gun shy about hype

Retailers seem to be a little gun-shy about hype

Facebook

Groupon


Which is why companies are actually thinking site first

Which is why companies are actually thinking “site first”

Top Digital Initiatives for 2013 (# of Retailers Responding)

Source: State of Retailing Online 2013, a Shop.org study conducted by Forrester


2 holding out for a social hero

2. “Holding out for a (social) hero”

“…And e-commerce will become increasingly important to Facebook, as it builds its recently launched Gifts business. The e-commerce platform—which lets users send goods, like…gift cards and cookies, to friends—poses a threat to Amazon, especially as Facebook adds more retail partners.”

Wall Street Journal, December 25, 2012


The state of retailing online 2013

How did you learn about these special deals [from today’s purchase]?

Thanksgiving Weekend

Pre-Thanksgiving

Cyber Monday)

2011

2012

Source: Bizrate Insights/Forrester Holiday Shopping Flash Surveys, Q4 2011 and Q4 2012


This is the low hanging fruit that still gets ignored

This is the low-hanging fruit that still gets ignored


Social is a tool more than a weapon

Social is a tool more than a weapon


3 the last mile obsession

3. The last-mile obsession


But the smart retailers are castling

But the smart retailers are “castling”


That s why multichannel still makes the list

That’s why “multichannel” still makes the list

Top Digital Initiatives for 2013 (# of Retailers Responding)

Source: State of Retailing Online 2013, a Shop.org study conducted by Forrester Research


The state of retailing online 2013

26%

Sweden

16%

26%

Netherlands

UK

United States

Germany

15%

France

27%

10%

Base: 2,000 UK online adults, 2,000 Swedish online adults, 2,000 Dutch online adults, 2,000 German online adults, 2,065 Spanish online adults, 2,122 Italian online adults, 2,000 French online adults, n/a; Source: European Technographics Retail, Customer Experience, And Travel Online Survey, Q3 2010; North American Technographics Retail Online Survey, Q3 2009 (US)

Italy

Spain

12%

14%

%

= % of respondents who have purchased from online retailers outside the US

= % of respondents who have purchased from online retailers outside of Europe

%


Agenda1

Agenda

  • Recap of 2012

  • Implications for 2013 and beyond


What to expect moving forward

What to expect moving forward

  • With mobile, it will get a lot worse before it gets better

  • Whatever is up Amazon’s sleeve will keep you up at night

  • Relentless innovation will continue

  • Be prepared for the party to end


The state of retailing online 2013

Intent among men 18-34

Future “showrooming” intention

Less

4%

Less

4%

About the same

49%

More

47%

More

37%

Base: 187 male smartphone owners

About the same

59%

Intent among women 18-34

Less

2%

More

31%

Base: 942 smartphone owners

Q: Do you think you will use your smartphone to research prices more or less in the future?

About the same

67%

Source: Forrester-Aprimo Showrooming Research, October 2012

Base: 209 female smartphone owners


The state of retailing online 2013

Q: Which of the following might have persuaded you to have purchased the product/brand you were researching on a smartphone while shopping in a physical store from the store or from its website. Please select all that apply. .

Base: 153 smartphone owners who purchased products at other stores or did not purchase

Source: Forrester-Aprimo Showrooming Research, October 2012


The state of retailing online 2013

Q: In which categories were the products you were researching or checking prices on your smartphone while shopping in a physical store? Please select all that apply.

Base: 415 smartphone owners who recently researched prices in stores

Source: Forrester-Aprimo Showrooming Research, October 2012


What to expect moving forward1

What to expect moving forward

  • With mobile, it will get a lot worse before it gets better

  • Whatever is up Amazon’s sleeve will keep you up at night

  • Relentless innovation will continue

  • Be prepared for the party to end


Amazon s global marketplace revenue dwarfs its profit

Amazon’s global marketplace revenue dwarfs its profit

US$MM

Source: Forrester estimates; GMV=gross merchandise value, the total value paid by shoppers in a transaction


The state of retailing online 2013

“How does your membership in a shipping club or program affect your shopping frequency?”

“Are you a member of a shipping club or program (i.e. Amazon Prime, Shoprunner or Williams-Sonoma Reserve)?”

N: 776 shipping club members

Source: Bizrate/Forrester Holiday Shopping Flash Surveys, Q4 2010, Q4 2011 and Q4 2012


The state of retailing online 2013

vs. a competitor

“2-day shipping”

6 days away

$13

$20 for next day!


What to expect moving forward2

What to expect moving forward

  • With mobile, it will get a lot worse before it gets better

  • Whatever is up Amazon’s sleeve will keep you up at night

  • Relentless innovation will continue

  • Be prepared for the party to end


The state of retailing online 2013

2008

2010

2012

Flash sales

Daily deals

Subscriptions


Curated commerce distributed commerce crowdsourced commerce

Curated commerce? Distributed commerce? Crowdsourced commerce?


What to expect moving forward3

What to expect moving forward

  • With mobile, it gets a lot worse before it gets better

  • Whatever is up Amazon’s sleeve will keep you up at night

  • Relentless innovation will continue

  • Be prepared for the party to end


The state of retailing online 2013

November 2012

December 2012

Source: Chase Paymentech Solutions


The state of retailing online 2013

Shopper saturation??

Deal fatigue??

% agreeing with statement: “I shopped in stores less because I shopped online instead.”

+10%

-5%

-8%

Base: online shoppers during Thanksgiving weekend

Base: pre-Thanksgiving online buyers

Source: Bizrate Insights/Forrester Holiday Shopping Flash Surveys, Q4 2010, Q4 2011 and Q4 2012


The state of retailing online 2013

“…no one was hurt, but many were disappointed.”


Wrap up

Wrap up

  • Responsive design for now, the next chapter may take a little while to be written

  • Learn from the innovators, they are often just product features anyway

  • Be prepared for tougher times

  • But for physical stores, that’s actually good news…


So long as we see less of this

…so long as we see less of this


The state of retailing online 2013

Sucharita Mulpuru

[email protected]

Twitter: @smulpuru


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