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ASIP Project Modeling Results for Current/Future Standards

ASIP Project Modeling Results for Current/Future Standards. ENVIRON International Corporation Alpine Geophysics, LLC University of California at Riverside Air Directors Meeting Nashville, TN December 5, 2006. Outline. 2009 12 km Base G 8-Hour Ozone Projections Remaining Work

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ASIP Project Modeling Results for Current/Future Standards

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  1. ASIP Project Modeling Results for Current/Future Standards ENVIRON International Corporation Alpine Geophysics, LLC University of California at Riverside Air Directors Meeting Nashville, TN December 5, 2006

  2. Outline • 2009 12 km Base G 8-Hour Ozone Projections • Remaining Work • 2009 12 km Base G Annual PM2.5 Projections • Remaining Work • 2009 and 2018 Projections • 8-hour ozone levels for 2009, 2018 • Daily PM2.5 levels for 2009

  3. 8-Hour Ozone and PM2.5 Projections • September 2006: Guidance on the Use of Models and Other Analysis for Demonstrating Attainment of Air Quality Goals for Ozone, PM2.5 and Regional Haze – Draft 3.2 • No changes for 8-hour ozone and annual PM2.5 project approaches • 8-hour ozone use days with highest daily maximum 8-hour ozone near monitor > threshold value • 85 ppb, 70 ppb and sliding 85 ppb to 70 ppb with 10 day min thresholds used – plots show sliding threshold • Design values are not shown if monitor did not meet EPA criteria for missing data • Annual PM2.5 use Speciated Modeled Attainment Test (SMAT) • Found small errors in previous 2009 Base F4 PM2.5 projections for particle bound water and NH4, fixed for Base F4 and G comparisons • Update observed 2000-2004 8-hour ozone Design Values in “DC Area” based on October 22, 2006 e-mail from Michael Kiss, VADEQ • No or small changes in results

  4. Bottom Line: 2009 12 km Base G ASIP 8-Hour Ozone Problem Areas • Virginia • Arlington-0020 = 87.7 ppb • Fairfax-0018 = 86.9 ppb • Fairfax-0030 = 85.4 ppb • Georgia • Fulton-0055 = 86.1 ppb • North Carolina • Mecklenburg-1009 = 85.0 ppb • 85 ppb NAAQS and 82 ppb to 87 ppb WOE Range

  5. 2009 12 km Base G vs. Base F4 8-Hour Ozone Design Values > 82 ppb

  6. PM2.5 Projections • Annual PM2.5 only • 15 μg/m3 NAAQS • 14.5 to 15.5 μg/m3 WOE Range • 2009 12 km Base G PM 2.5 Problem Areas • AL Jefferson NBHM = 17.7 μg/m3 • GA Fulton = 16.3 μg/m3 • OH Hamilton 15.1 μg/m3 • 11 more sites in WOE range w/ 12 km Base G • 4 more violating sites with 2009 36 km Base G results • 10 more violating sites with 2009 12 km Base F4 results • 20 more violating sites with 2009 36 km Base F4 results

  7. 2009 36/12 km Base F4 & Base G PM2.5 Design Value Projections

  8. Next Steps • Model Performance Evaluation for 2002 Actual Base G is underway. States should begin to see products from contractor in late December/early January. • States are waiting on EPA to release their “Modeled Attainment Test Software” so that an unmonitored area analysis can be done. • Weight of evidence evaluation and documentation is underway. • Documentation of technical SIP elements is underway. • Finally, strategy assessment is underway for areas needing further controls.

  9. New Standards • What does the modeling suggest for the future levels of ozone and PM2.5 compared to the CASAC recommendations for ozone, and the new daily PM2.5 standard?

  10. Questions?

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