Developing input-output simulation metamodels. Ken R. McNaught, M.F. Alam and T.J. Ringrose Cranfield University Defence Academy Shrivenham UK. ORS Defence Study Group Presentation 19/10/2005. What is a metamodel?. A model of a model
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Ken R. McNaught, M.F. Alam and T.J. Ringrose
ORS Defence Study Group Presentation
Friedman (1996), The Simulation Metamodel, Kluwer, Norwell, Mass.
Kleijnen and van Groenendaal (1992), Simulation – A Statistical Perspective, Wiley, Chichester.
where the are input variables and is the error term.
Here we have
2 factors, X
and Y and 5
from within the
Here X and Y have each been split into 5 intervals and each design point chosen by randomly pairing intervals.
Here we have another possible LHS replicate.
The aim of a screening design is to reduce the number of factors included in the main experiment, i.e. to identify and screen out those which are relatively unimportant.
Unimportant in this context means a variable which has little impact on the response variable of interest.
Starting from a randomly chosen basepoint, in the design space, factor i is selected randomly, increased or decreased by and an elementary effect of that factor calculated as
Now, a different factor, j, is selected and a new
point defined such
This continues until an elementary effect has been
calculated for each factor.
factor, a new base point is chosen and the
whole process is repeated r times.
Hence, for each factor there are r elementary
effects calculated. Their means and variances
indicate which factors are important.
These related to the number of components
within various units on either side, and human
factors such as probability of shock,
probability of surprise and unit participation.
Some of these were grouped, e.g. the
number of components in C and D tank squadrons
(both part of the same battlegroup)
These related to the number of components of
dismounted infantry on each side and the
number of components in each side’s HQ.
Clearly, the rank ordering might have been
different in another scenario.
LER=Red Casualties/Blue Casualties
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