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Razeen Sally European Centre for International Political Economy/ London School of Economics. EU BILATERAL AGENDA WITH STRATEGIC TRADE PARTNERS. EU BILATERALS. Trade and FDI patterns EU bilateral trade policy: Global Europe; Trade, Growth, World Affairs FTAs in Asia

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eu bilateral agenda with strategic trade partners
Razeen Sally

European Centre for International Political Economy/

London School of Economics

EU BILATERAL AGENDA WITH STRATEGIC TRADE PARTNERS
eu bilaterals
EU BILATERALS
  • Trade and FDI patterns
  • EU bilateral trade policy: Global Europe; Trade, Growth, World Affairs
  • FTAs in Asia
  • EU bilaterals: policy issues
eu bilaterals1
EU BILATERALS
  • EUand strategic trade partners

-- Bilateral trade and FDI

-- Comparative trade barriers

leading eu27 import export countries services trade excluding intra eu trade 2009
Leading EU27 Import & Export Countries Services trade - excluding intra-EU trade (2009)

* Services figures taken from 2006 and based on 2008 for % world figures.

eu bilaterals2
EU BILATERALS
  • EU bilateral trade policy

- Global Europe: economic/commercial rationale; WTO plus; but also non-trade motives; differences with EPAs/MENA

- Trade, Growth, World Affairs: Update and fleshing out; more emphasis on big trading partners, stronger provisions on regulatory market access in bilateral agreements and stronger trade enforcement

- Benchmarks for (relatively) strong, clean FTAs and non-FTA frameworks with other strategic trade partners

- How serious is the economic/commercial logic?

- Market access and non-trade motives (labour/environmental standards; “sustainable development”; climate change etc.)

- Comparisons with US FTAs on WTO plus issues; implications for EU trade policy after the Lisbon Treaty

- Overall context: no substitute for intra-EU reforms and multilateral progress; otherwise narrow mercantilism, trade diversion, spaghetti/ noodle bowls

ftas in asia
FTAs IN ASIA
  • FTAs

- Context: stalled liberalisation; creeping regulatory protectionism (partly crisis-related); from non- discriminatory liberalisation to discriminatory FTAs

-Proliferation in Asia; catch up with other regions

- Motives: foreign policy; WTO stalled; building blocks to regional and global economic integration?

- Trade-lite FTAs (except with USA and EU?): focus on tariff liberalisation/elimination – but neglect of non-tariff and regulatory barriers; risks of trade distortions but limits to trade/investment creation and dynamic gains

ftas in asia1
FTAs IN ASIA
  • Asian FTA players

-- China: trade-lite (eg., China-ASEAN to partial-scope agreements)

-- Japan: also trade lite; unambitious on market access and big carve outs

-- South Korea: more serious, e.g. US and EU FTAs

-- ASEAN: Singapore the exception, otherwise weak FTAs; bilaterals take priority over ASEAN+1 FTAs

-- India: v. weak FTAs; part of overall defensive trade policy

regional economic integration in asia
REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION IN ASIA
  • Regional economic integration

- APEC: diverse, unwieldy, diffuse agenda; FTAAP unlikely

- ASEAN: Visions galore, but where’s the beef? CEPT progress; AFAS, AIA weak; little progress on regulatory barriers; AEC and ASEAN Charter: paper tigers?

- SAFTA: v. trade-light (excludes over half of trade); risks trade diversion; throttled Indo-Pak trade

- TPP: Building bloc to wider Asia-Pacific FTA?; odds against a deep-integration FTA; US demands on labour and environmental standards; excludes China – divisive economically and geopolitically?

regional economic integration in asia1
REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION IN ASIA
  • Regional economic integration (cont.)

- Wider regional integration initiatives: Northeast Asian FTA; ASEAN plus 3; ASEAN plus 6

- The case for a region-wide FTA: specialisation; economies of scale and dynamic gains; reduce trade diversion from noodle bowl; all depends on a comprehensive, WTO-plus FTA

- But it could compromise global integration, esp. processing trade and extension of global supply chains

- Huge economic and political differences in Asia make clean, strong FTAs very unlikely; rather trade-light FTAs adding to noodle bowl

- Conclusion: FTAs unlikely to contribute much to regional economic integration; reliance on bilateral FTAs; disintegration dangers

eu bilaterals3
EU BILATERALS
  • EU bilaterals: policy issues

-- USA: tariffs and NTBs

-- Canada: FTA

-- Mercosur and other FTAs in Latin America

-- GCC

-- Russia and Ukraine

-- Low-income countries and LDCs (EPAs, GSP, GSP+, EBA)

eu asia ftas
EU-ASIA FTAs
  • EU-Korea

-- Estimated effects: tackling NTBs

-- Comprehensive tariff elimination; short transition periods

-- Ban on export restraints

-- Sector-specific agreements to tackle NTBs

-- FDI, GATS-plus, govt. procurement, IPR enforcement, competition (state aids), dispute settlement

-- Trade and Sustainable Development

-- Regulatory transparency

eu asia ftas1
EU-ASIA FTAs
  • EU-ASEAN

- Estimated FTA effects: crucial to tackle NTBs and have major services liberalisation

- Existing bilateral cooperation framework: TREATI and PCAs

- From TREATI to FTA

- EU-ASEAN talks failed: v. low ASEAN common denominator and lack of common negotiating machinery

- EU-Singapore FTA: strong FTA likely

- EU-Malaysia/Vietnam/Indonesia/Philippines/Thailand: big challenge to negotiate strong FTAs

- Limited gains from such bilateral FTAs; risks of trade distortions

eu asia ftas2
EU-ASIA FTAs
  • EU-India

- Estimated effects

- Extreme difficulty of negotiating strong FTA with India, esp. on NTBs and regulatory issues

- Issues: agriculture; NAMA; services; investment, other WTO plus issues, NTBs

- Indian concerns on labour and environmental standards

eu asia ftas3
EU-ASIA FTAs
  • EU-Japan

-- Tariffs and NTBs: views from both sides

-- Lack of Japanese ambition

-- Moving towards an FTA negotiation?

eu bilaterals4
EU BILATERALS
  • EU-China

- FTA not on the cards

- Existing bilateral cooperation framework (PCA, regulatory dialogues up to HLD): too soft; how to strengthen?

- Avoid non-trade linkages; don’t exaggerate

macroeconomic issues (bilateral deficit and exchange rate)

- Focus on market access, esp. regulatory issues

- Both EU and China have legitimate market-access issues

eu bilaterals5
EU BILATERALS
  • EU-China (cont.): issues

-- Raw materials and export restraints

-- Services

-- Investment (both ways)

-- IPR

-- Government Procurement

-- Norms and standards (both ways)

-- Subsidies

-- MES and trade remedies

-- Better prioritising and constructing quid pro quos

eu bilaterals6
EU BILATERALS
  • EU-China: Conclusion

-- Better prioritising and constructing quid pro quos

-- Constructive reciprocity vs. destructive reciprocity (threatening punitive measures)

-- Better bilateral relations if stalled domestic reforms are revived

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