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Charts for Inflation Report 2/2003

Charts for Inflation Report 2/2003. Summary. Chart 1 Projected CPI-ATE and output gap 1) with a sight deposit rate of 4 per cent and import-weighted krone exchange rate equal to the average for 3/6-19/6 (I-44= 93.5). Per cent. CPI-ATE. Output gap.

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Charts for Inflation Report 2/2003

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  1. Charts for Inflation Report2/2003

  2. Summary

  3. Chart 1 Projected CPI-ATE and output gap1) with a sight deposit rate of 4 per cent and import-weighted krone exchange rate equal to the average for 3/6-19/6 (I-44= 93.5).Per cent CPI-ATE Output gap 1) The output gap is a measure of the difference between actual and trend output.See box in IR 1/03 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  4. Chart 2 Projected CPI-ATE and output gap1) with forward interest rate and gradual exchange rate depreciation of 3 per cent. Per cent CPI-ATE Output gap 1) The output gap is a measure of the difference between actual and trend output.See box in IR 1/03 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  5. Chart 3 Projected CPI-ATE with forward interest rate and gradual exchange rate depreciation of 3 per cent. 12-month rise. Per cent Forward interest rate and forward exchange rate CPI-ATE Forward interest rate and forward exchange rate without impact on wage growth Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  6. Chart 1.1 Mainland GDP.In billions of 2000-NOK. Seasonally adjusted. 1998 Q1 - 2003 Q1 Source: Statistics Norway

  7. Chart 1.2 Three-month money market rates in the US and Norway.Jan 1995 - May 2003 Norway US Sources: EcoWin and Norges Bank

  8. Chart 1.3 Employed persons according to LFS.In millions. Seasonally adjusted. Jan 98 - March 03 Source: Statistics Norway

  9. Chart 1.4 Unemployed (LFS), registered unemployed and persons participating in labour market programmes.Percentage of labour force.Seasonally adjusted1).Jan95 - May 03 Registered unemployed and labour market programmes LFS unemployment Registered unemployed 1) LFS unemployment: 3-month moving average Sources: Statistics Norway and the Directorate of Labour

  10. Chart 1.5 Annual wage growth in Norway.Including costs of additional vacation days. Per cent. 1996-2003 Sources: Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements (TRCIS) and Norges Bank

  11. Chart 1.6 Prices for consumer goods adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). Total1) and by supplier sector2).12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 99 - May 03 Goods and services produced in Norway CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods 1) Norges Bank's estimates up to and including July 2000, thereafter figures published by Statistics Norway 2) Norges Bank's estimates Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  12. Chart 1.7 Prices for some imported consumer goods adjusted for tax changes. 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 99 - May 03 Cars Clothing and footwear Audio-visual equipment Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  13. Chart 1.8 Prices for some imported consumer goods adjusted for tax changes. Annual figures. Index. 1990=100 Footwear Domestic appliances Clothing Audio-visual equipment Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  14. Chart 1.9 CPI-ATE.Goods and services produced in Norway. 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan99 - May 03 Services with wages as dominating price factor House rent Other services Consumer goods produced in Norway excluding energy products1) 1) Excluding agricultural and fish products Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  15. Chart 1.10 Consumer prices.Total and adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products.12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 99 - May 03 CPI-AT1) CPI CPI-ATE1) CPI-AT: CPI adjusted for tax changesCPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products 1) Norges Bank's estimates up to and including July 2000, thereafter figures published by Statistics Norway Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  16. Chart 1.11 Electricity prices. Index. 1 January 1998=100 Spot price including tax and grid rental Electricity in the CPI Sources: Statistics Norway, Nordpool, the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate and Norges Bank

  17. Chart 1.12 Import-weighted exchange rate (I-44), trade-weighted exchange rate index1) and interest rate differential against other countries. Jan 95 - May 03 3-month interest rate differential (left-hand scale) I-44 (right-hand scale) TWI (right-hand scale) 1) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone Source: Norges Bank

  18. Chart 1.13 The krone exchange rate against EUR and USD1).Weekly figures. 12 Jan 02 - 19 June 03 NOK against EUR NOK against USD 1) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone Source: Norges Bank

  19. Chart 1.14 Effective exchange rates1).Index.Week 1/2002=100.Weekly figures.4 Jan02 -18 June 03 New Zealand Euro area Iceland Norway Canada Australia 1) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the exchange rate Source: EcoWin

  20. Actual Forward Chart 1.15 Three-month money market rates and forward rates, 1995-2013.Monthly figures Norway Trading partners Difference Source: Norges Bank

  21. Chart 1.16 Developments on the Oslo Stock Exchange (OSEBX) and 5-year government bond yields. Daily figures, 01.06.02 -19.06.03 5-year government bond yields (right-hand scale) OSEBX (left-hand scale) Sources: EcoWin and Norges Bank

  22. Chart 1.17 Strategy intervals for the sight deposit rate and actual developments. Nov 02 - June 03 Interval in Strategy Document 3/02 Sight deposit rate Interval in Strategy Document 1/03 Jan 03 May 03 Nov 02 Mar 03 Source: Norges Bank

  23. Chart 1.18 Interest rate expectations in the US.Actual developments and expected key rate1) 1 July 02 Key rate 24 Oct 02 7 Apr 03 28 May 03 19 June 03 1) Based on Fed Funds futures and Eurodollar futures adjusted for the estimated spread between 3-month Libor and Fed Funds rates Source: Norges Bank

  24. Chart 1.19 Interest rate expectations in the euro area.Actual developments and expected key rate1) Key rate 1 July 02 24 Oct 02 7 Apr 03 28 May 03 19 June 03 1) Based on Euribor futures adjusted for the estimated spread between 3-month Euribor and Refi rates Source: Norges Bank

  25. Chart 1.20 Interest rate expectations in Norway.Actual developments and expected key rate1). Key rate 1 July 02 25 Oct 02 7 Apr 03 26 May 03 19 June 03 1) Based on FRA and currency swap markets, adjusted for estimated difference in level and credit risk in relation to the sight deposit rate Source: Norges Bank

  26. Chart 2.1 GDP growth in the US, Japan, the euro area and among Norway's trading partners combined.Seasonally adjusted growth in volume on previous quarter. Per cent Sources: EcoWin, US Department of Commerce, ESRI (Japan), EURO-OP Eurostat and Norges Bank

  27. Chart 2.2 The oil price and some financial market indicators. Index. Week 1 2002 = 100 Yield spread speculative corporate bonds/US government bonds Oil price (Brent Blend) Long-term rates, US (10-year gov't) Equities US (Wilshire 5000) Sources: EcoWin, IPE, S&P Credit Indices, Wilshire Associates and Norges Bank

  28. Chart 2.3 Projections for GDP growth among trading partners in 2003 made at different times Consensus Forecasts Norges Bank Sources: Consensus Forecasts and Norges Bank

  29. Chart 2.4 Net wealth/disposable income and saving ratio in the US.Quarterly figures 1960-2003.Dashed lines show period averages Net wealth/disposable income (left-hand scale) Saving ratio (inverted) (right-hand scale) Sources: EcoWin, US Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve Board and Norges Bank

  30. Chart 2.5 EUR/USDexchange rate.1 Jan 1999 - 19 June 2003 Source: EcoWin

  31. Chart 2.6 Unemployment as a share of the labour force. Seasonally adjusted. Jan 97 - May 03 Spain Italy France Germany Euro area Sources: EcoWin, EUR-OP Eurostat, Federal Labour Office (Germany), National Employment Agency (France), Istat (Italy) and Norges Bank

  32. Chart 2.7 Oil price, Brent Blend.USD per barrel.Daily figures. IR 2/03 Futures prices 19 June 2003 Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank

  33. Chart 2.8 Historical consumer price inflation and projections from Norges Bank.Annual percentage rise 1995-2005 US Euro area Trading partners Japan Sources: EcoWin, Bureau of Labor Statistics (US), Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecom (Japan), EUR-OP Eurostat and Norges Bank

  34. Chart 2.9 Wage growth and rise in prices for services in the CPI.Percentage change on same quarter previous year Euro area US Services in the CPI Wage growth Sources: Datastream, EcoWin, EUR-OP Eurostat and Bureau of Labor Statistics (US)

  35. Chart 2.10 Rise in prices for goods in the CPI.Percentage change on same quarter previous year Euro area, excl. food and energy US, excl. food and energy UK Japan Source: Datastream

  36. Chart 2.11 Historical and expected key rates as of 19 June 20031) UK Euro area US Japan 1) See further details on calculation of interest rate expectations in Charts1.18 and 1.19 Sources: EcoWin, Bloomberg, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and Norges Bank

  37. Chart 3.1 Wage shares.Labour costs as a percentage of factor income 1993-2002 Manufacturing Other market-oriented mainland industry Sources: TRCIS and Statistics Norway

  38. Chart 3.2 Relative labour costs¹): Norway and trading partners.Deviation from average since 1970.Per cent. 1970-20032) Local currency Common currency 1) Hourly labour costs in manufacturing 2) Estimates for 2003.The estimate for relative labour costs for 2003 in a common currency is based on the exchange rate on 19 June 2003. Sources: TRCIS, Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

  39. Chart 3.3 Business confidence indicator for manufacturing.Seasonally adjusted diffusion index1).1990 Q1 - 2003 Q1 1) A value of less than 0 implies that the majority of manufacturing leaders expect a weaker outlook in the next quarter. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  40. Chart 3.4 Number of bankruptcies and vacancy rate in the office rental market1). 1991-20032) Average vacancy rate in Oslo (left-hand scale) Bankruptcy proceedings initiated (right-hand scale) 1) Vacancy rate in office rental market in Oslo alone 2) The vacancy rate figure for 2003 is as of February Source: Statistics Norway and Eiendomspar AS

  41. Chart 3.5 Total domestic credit (C2) and credit to non-financial enterprises. 12-month growth. Jan 98 - Apr 03 Credit to non-financial enterprises Total domestic credit Source: Norges Bank

  42. Chart 3.6 Household saving ratio and growth in real disposable income. 1990-2002 Saving ratio Real disposable income Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  43. Chart 3.7 Consumer confidence indicator1).Unadjusted figures.1999 Q1 - 2003 Q2 Personal financial situation Country's economic situation Total 1) Provides an expression of the share with a positive assessment of the current situation and outlook for the future less the share with a negative assessment Source: TNS Gallup

  44. Chart 3.8 House prices and credit to households. 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 98 - Apr 03 Credit to households House prices Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents, Association of Real Estate Agency Firms, FINN.co, ECON and Norges Bank

  45. Chart 3.9 Household interest burden¹) and debt as a percentage of disposable income. 1980-2002 Interest burden (right-hand scale) Debt (left-hand scale) 1) Interest expenses after tax as a percentage of disposable income plus interest expenses Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  46. Chart 3.10 Change in structural non-oil budget balance1). 1990-2005 1) The budget balance as a percentage of trend mainland GDP; change on previous year. Source: Revised National Budget 2003

  47. Chart 3.11 Structural non-oil deficit. Percentage of trend mainland GDP. National Budget 2002 Revised National Budget 2003 National Budget 2003 Source: The Ministry of Finance

  48. Chart 3.12 Estimates for public consumption 2003-2004 made at different times.Annual percentage growth 2004 2003 Source: Norges Bank

  49. Chart 3.13 Job vacancies advertised per business day. Seasonally adjusted. Jan 00 - May 03 Source: Directorate of Labour

  50. Chart 3.14 Change in employment on previous year. Per cent.Unemployment1) as a percentage of the labour force. 1980-2003 LFS unemployment (left-hand scale) Employed (right-hand scale) 1) LFS unemployment Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

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