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MULTI-DIMENSIONAL SECURITY. Headaches for public policy. EXAMPLE: THE HERBERT BRAUN DIAGRAM ON EFFECTS OF A MAJOR ENERGY BREAKDOWN (EG, NATION-WIDE OR VERY LARGE ELECTRICITY FAILURE) (Who is Herbert Braun??). THINGS BRAUN SAYS CAN CAUSE THIS.
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MULTI-DIMENSIONAL SECURITY Headaches for public policy
EXAMPLE: THE HERBERT BRAUN DIAGRAM ON EFFECTS OF A MAJOR ENERGY BREAKDOWN (EG, NATION-WIDE OR VERY LARGE ELECTRICITY FAILURE) (Who is Herbert Braun??)
THINGS BRAUN SAYS CAN CAUSE THIS • Storm or drought (eg, caused by climate change) • Nuclear accident • Cyberterrorism • Internal political/economic crisis (how?) • THINK OF MORE!
THINGS BRAUN SAYS THIS CAN LEAD TO • Breakdown of economy/banking • Ditto IT networks • Ditto ‘international competitiveness’ • Ditto health system • THINK OF MORE!!
IN SUM: • Military, terrorist, internal-political, human accident and natural forces can cause the problem • Military, law and order, economic, technological, and human dimensions of security can suffer as a result
WHAT REMEDIES? (a) PRIORITIZING CAUSES • Which are more likely/frequent? • Which are likely to have bigger impact than others (always bigger, or wider range)? • Which are likely to have multiple impacts? • WHICH CAN WE DO ANYTHING ABOUT??
CAUSES: WHAT CAN WE DO? • State alone or with other states/institutions • State alone or with other kinds of actors • Eliminate, deter, divert, reduce (motive, target, impact, frequency) • GIVE EXAMPLES relevant for (i) cyber-terrorism (ii) climate change
DAMAGE: PRIORITIZING CONCERNS • Vulnerability/exposure • Robustness - survival, functioning • Nature of (direct) consequences • Seriousness/scale of consequences for (a) the state, (b) people, (c) the environment ((d) allies if any) • Likelihood, number and seriousness of secondary consequences (dominos)
DAMAGE: WHAT CAN WE DO? • Reduce exposure (harden, disperse and diversify, find substitutes etc) • Increase robustness (material + human, objective + psychological) • Block/reduce direct losses • Block/reduce domino effects (firewalls, redundancy etc) • GIVE EXAMPLES for (a) health system (b) transport networks
IS IT REALLY POSSIBLE? • Too complicated • Needs too much coordin’n/centraliz’n • Difficulty of relying on others (external, non-state) • Constantly changing patterns and priorities: objective and subjective (problem of democracy!) • The real devil:money
HOW TO DISTRIBUTE RESOURCES? • Traditional defence or new violence • All violence vs. accidental+natural risks • All ‘security’ probs vs permanent needs • Frequent or exceptional risks • Short-term or long-term risks • Obvious or creeping/invisible risks • Just for ourselves or for the world as a whole??