Introduction to the toolbox

1. Introduction to the toolbox For counterparts

2. Agenda for the visit • Before we begin: Have you all read the Frequently Asked Questions and Answers about Oxfam Novib’s appraisal methodology? • Purpose: Build with you our appraisal of the opportunities and risks in our development co-operation.

3. Expected results of the visit • Clarity about what we need to complete our appraisal of the project for which [ctpt] requests Oxfam Novib funding during [period] • Also, clarity about what is needed to complete the Counterpart and Project Description

4. Activities during our visit 1 This morning: • introduction to the exercise • gather any additional information that we need 2 This afternoon: • we will finish our draft appraisal 3 Tomorrow morning: • present and discuss with you our analysis of the opportunity and risks • agree with you the indicators of progress towards achieving the results and for controlling the risks

5. Decision-making steps in Oxfam Novib 1 Pre-assessment by the Oxfam Novib team and agreement to appraise [ctpt] 2 Appraisal, which will be completed following this visit 3 Agreement between us about the Counterpart and Project Description 4 Discussion of both products (appraisal and description) by Oxfam Novib and approval or not of the funding request. No later than [date] 5 Signing of the contract based on the Description and the Appraisal, including our agreement on follow-up and review.

6. What is risk-taking all about? For Oxfam Novib: “To dare” to make a development co-operation grant that aims to achieve positive outcomes, while running the danger of negative results or even failure. The simple….. • There always exists uncertainty about the results - positive or negative - in development co-operation • The probability of positive and negative results varies • Each result has different consequences, whether good or bad.

7. and the complex…. • Risk is deeply rooted in the reality of different societies, organisations and people. • Thus, our specific historical, economic, political, social, cultural, environmental, institutional, psychological contexts (amongst others!) shape our perceptions about the probability and the consequences of success and failure.

8. Example of an uncertain event Will it rain tomorrow? And if it does, what should I do? First consideration: What is the probability that it will rain? That depends on: • My knowledge of the historical pattern • The radio forecast • My neighbour’s opinion • The opposite of what my brother says • My intuition That is, everyone’s calculation will depend on our different beliefs about the probability that it will rain or not.

9. Example of an uncertain event - ctnd. Second consideration: What are the consequences if it rains tomorrow? What are the potential benefits or costs? This calculation depends on: • Whether I walk to work or go by bus or car • I like or dislike walking in the rain • If I get wet, I am prone to catching the flu • Do I have enough money to pay for a taxi? Thus, our decisions about what we will do if we believe it will rain depends on our preferences for the consequences.

10. In summary • The risk approach to grant-making can help us in Oxfam Novib to form our judgements. Those judgement, however, must be informed through a critical and transparent dialogue amongst ourselves and especially with you. That is the only way to ensure that we have made the best possible decision. It also will enable us to understand each other.

13. DANGER YOUR OUTCOMES

15. Smart outcomes • A rule of thumb for assessing what will be achieved and by when: Specific Measurable Achievable Realistic Time-bound

19. NOT DARING TO TAKE RISKS IS THE GREATEST RISK OF ALL! END

20. END