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Goal. Predict whom survived the Titanic Disaster. Hypotheses. Woman and Children First. Get Data. Read dataset into Excel, R, etc. Data Management. Some Age Missing Data, Analyze Gender Only. Statistics & Analysis. 74% Women, 19% Men . Submit Predictions. 320 / 418 = 76.5%.

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Submit predictions

Goal

Predict whom survived the Titanic Disaster

Hypotheses

Woman and Children First

Get Data

Read dataset into Excel, R, etc

Data Management

Some Age Missing Data, Analyze Gender Only

Statistics &

Analysis

74% Women, 19% Men

Submit Predictions

320 / 418 = 76.5%


Predictor variables

Predictor Variables


Submit predictions

Age

All

N = 891

Data

N = 714

Missing

N = 177


Submit predictions

Decision Trees

  • Dependent variable, (Y)

    • Continuous

    • Categorical

  • Independent variables, (X’s)

    • Continuous

    • Categorical

The Decision Tree looks for split on sample at the node that can lead to the most differentiation on Y


Submit predictions

Age


Submit predictions

Decision Trees

  • maximize data likelihood (minimize deviance).


Submit predictions

Prediction and Missing Values

Correlation, Association of Age with other Variables?


Submit predictions

Goal

Predict whom survived the Titanic Disaster

Hypotheses

Woman and Children First

Get Data

Read dataset into Excel, R, etc

Data Management

Some Age Missing Data, Analyze Gender Only

Statistics &

Analysis

74% Women, 19% Men

Submit Predictions

320 / 418 = 76.5%


Submit predictions

Gender


Submit predictions

Gender and Age

  • Tree grows based on optimizing only the split from the current node rather then optimizing the entire tree

  • Tree stops when further split becomes ineffective


Submit predictions

Prediction: Gender + Age


Submit predictions

Goal

Predict whom survived the Titanic Disaster

Hypotheses

Woman and Children First

Get Data

Read dataset into Excel, R, etc

Data Management

Some Age Missing Data, Analyze Gender Only

Statistics &

Analysis

Submit Predictions


Submit predictions

Goal

Predict whom survived the Titanic Disaster

Hypotheses

Woman and Children First

Get Data

Read dataset into Excel, R, etc

Data Management

Age + Gender

Statistics &

Analysis

Submit Predictions


Submit predictions

Kitchen Sink


Submit predictions

Kitchen Sink


Submit predictions

Decision Trees

  • Popular Implementations

    • CART Classification And Regression Tree

    • CHAID CHi-squared Automatic Interaction Detector

    • CHAID allows multiple branch split - a wider tree

    • CART uses binary split


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