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BRANDBESKERMINGS-VERENINGS

BRANDBESKERMINGS-VERENINGS. Agriculture. Climate Variability and Climate Change in the Agricultural Context. Presented by: Johan van den Berg 30 September 2013. Contents. Weather and Climate Systems High and Low pressure systems Cold fronts Orographic rain

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BRANDBESKERMINGS-VERENINGS

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  1. BRANDBESKERMINGS-VERENINGS Agriculture Climate Variability and Climate Change in the Agricultural Context Presented by: Johan van den Berg 30 September 2013

  2. Contents • Weather and Climate Systems • High and Low pressure systems • Cold fronts • Orographic rain • Climate change and climate variability • Sun • Ocean • Pacific • Indian Ocean • Climate forecasts (outlooks) • Risk management

  3. High and low pressure systems Favourable for rain Unfavourable for rain H L Heat

  4. Hurricane Sandy: Oct 2012 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/

  5. Hurricane Sandy: Oct 2012 http://www.wxnotes.com/

  6. Cold front and rain http://www.bishopmuseum.org

  7. Orographic rainfall

  8. Climate change and climate variability

  9. Climate Change: A change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use. http://www.thegwpf.org/ipcc-introduces-new-climate-change-definition/

  10. Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and other climate statistics (standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) on all temporal and spatial scales beyond those of individual weather events. • Climate variability is the “normal” variability around the long term average

  11. Climate change

  12. Global temperature http://www.aip.org/history/climate/20ctrend.htm#S6

  13. Climate variability

  14. The effect of the sun

  15. The Frozen Thames, looking Eastwards towards Old London Bridge: 1677 Credit: Museum of London

  16. Sonvlekke en sonvleksiklus Sunspot count vs RSA drought/extreme wet spells Wet Dry Wet

  17. The effect of sea surface temperatures

  18. Pacific (El Nino Southern Oscilation, ENSO)

  19. Example of El Nino

  20. Example of La Nina

  21. El Nino Rain Rain Rain L L L H H H

  22. La Nina Rain Rain Rain H L L H H

  23. Indian Ocean

  24. L H H

  25. L H L H

  26. Outlook for the 2013/14 season

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