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Tools for Systems Thinking and Modeling

2. Events and Decisions. Reactive. Adaptive. Generative. Increasing leverage. A Systems Perspective. 3. A systems view stands back just far enough to...Deliberately blur discrete events into patterns of behaviorDeliberately move from a focus on individual decisions to a focus on policy structure.

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Tools for Systems Thinking and Modeling

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    1. 1 Tools for Systems Thinking and Modeling Dynamics: Graphs over time Structure: Causal-loop Diagrams

    2. 2 A Systems Perspective

    3. 3 “Distancing...”

    4. 4 The Systems Perspective

    5. 5 Dynamic Thinking Define problems in terms of graphs over time. Graph important variables Graph historical data Graph anticipated dynamics Graph preferred dynamics Use these to focus systems thinking and modeling

    6. 6 Unemployment (%)

    7. 7 New York City Populations

    8. 8 Percentages of high school grads completing college, by ethnicity

    9. 9 Unemployment & Welfare in Dutchess County, NY

    10. 10 New York State K-12 Public Education Expenditures per Pupil

    11. 11 Strive for Dynamic Insights

    12. 12 So you’re getting more education…

    13. 13 The Systems Perspective

    14. 14 System Structure

    15. 15 Causal Diagrams

    16. 16 Polarities of Causal Links

    17. 17 Definitions of Link Polarities All words phrases are expressed as quantities that have a clear sense of increase or decrease. No verbs — the action is in the arrows. An increase in A makes B greater than it would have been without the change; a decrease in A makes B less .

    18. 18 Examples

    19. 19 Feedback Loops A feedback loop exists when decisions change the state of the system, changing the conditions and information that influence future decisions.

    20. 20 The Joy of Feedback

    21. 21 The Joy of Feedback

    22. 22 No — it’s more like the life cycle of the famous scientist

    23. 23 Examples of Feedback Loops

    24. 24 Two kinds of feedback loops Reinforcing loops self-reinforcing growth producing destabilizing accelerating even number of –’s Symbolized by Counteracting loops balancing goal seeking stabilizing compensating odd number of –’s Symbolized by

    25. 25 Examples of Reinforcing Loops

    26. 26 Reinforcing Feedback in the Newspaper

    27. 27 Reinforcing Feedback in the Newspaper

    28. 28 Reinforcing Feedback in the Newspaper

    29. 29 Examples of Balancing Loops

    30. 30 What are these loops, and what stories do they tell?

    31. 31 Tips for Determining Link and Loop Polarities For each link, determine the effect of an increase in the variable at the tail of the arrow: If the variable at the head increases, assign a plus. If the variable at the head decreases, assign a minus. For each loop, count the number of negative signs: An even number of negative links is a reinforcing (R) loop. An odd number of negative links is a balancing (B) loop. Most important: For each loop, tell a self-reinforcing or balancing/counteracting story, and check that the story matches the loop polarity.

    32. 32 Linking Feedback Structure and Dynamic Behavior Linking causal loop thinking with graphs over time

    33. 33 World Population (billions)

    34. 34 Self-reinforcing processes in world population growth

    35. 35 Typical Reinforcing Loop Behavior

    36. 36 Typical Counteracting Loop Behavior

    37. 37 Typical Counteracting Loop Behavior

    38. 38 Summary of Structure and Behavior Reinforcing loops are responsible for accelerating growth, accelerating decline, or traps due to inertia Counteracting loops are much more prevalent but often less obvious; they balance and adapt Counteracting loops can compensate for policy initiatives and defeat intended effects Combinations of reinforcing and counteracting loops are responsible for all the complex dynamics we create in our complex systems.

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